Kickoff Sunday, Nov 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
21) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 51.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The KC offense is likely to find real life success but that may not lead to fantasy success.
  • Patrick Mahomes ownership projections might overstate his ownership in reality.
  • Travis Etienne is still underpriced for his opportunity.
  • The Jaguars are trying to keep up and have been in every game this season.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Jaguars come into Week 10 off a victory against a listless Raiders team that is woefully underperforming their talent. The Jags haven’t had many victories to celebrate, but they’ve been very competitive, with all six losses coming by one score, and their previous two victories being blowouts. The Jags have an unfortunate-looking point differential (+21) when held up against their record. For comparison, the Jets have a slightly lower point differential (+20) but a much better 6-3 record. The difference between point differential and record alone doesn’t mean the Jags are vastly underrated, but it serves as a reminder that their record and the perception around them could be very different with a few close results going the other way.

Doug Pederson is playing with a moderate pace (14th overall) but he notably plays quicker (3rd overall) when trailing. Pederson wants to run but never gives up early, speeding up when his team falls behind which is why so many Jags game finish close. This team isn’t rolling over and it’s important to keep in mind they have been in every game. The Jags have a huge void between their pass-blocking grades (3rd per PFF) and their run-blocking grades (30th per PFF), but that discrepancy hasn’t stopped them from trying to run (23rd in pass play percentage). The Jags O-line hasn’t created much (26th in adjusted line yards) but the Chiefs have been equally generous on the ground (28th in adjusted line yards given up) so there is reason to think the Jags could find success in a weakness-on-weakness matchup. The Chiefs have beatable on the ground (20th in DVOA) and through the air (24th in DVOA) offering near-equal paths of least resistance. Pederson hasn’t gotten enough credit for the coaching job he’s done because of his team’s record but he has been willing to start with a run-balanced approach on offense and do what the situation dictates rather than having a rigid “play our way approach.” Without a glaring weakness to attack, it is likely that Pederson comes out with a ground-based game plan to keep Mahomes off the field but he will have the willingness to cut bait and try to keep up if the Jags fall behind early. Expect the Jags to try and run the ball for as long as they can, before eventually passing when the Chiefs take a lead.   

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

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