Kickoff Thursday, Nov 10th 8:15pm Eastern

Falcons (
22) at

Panthers (
19.5)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 begins with the Falcons visiting the Panthers for a 42.5 total game with Atlanta favored by a field goal. It’s a war of two mediocre teams, with the “run at any cost no matter what the game situation” Falcons, who are somewhat mysteriously 4-5 and tied for 1st place in their division, going up against the blatantly tanking 2-7 Panthers. 

Atlanta

On the Falcons side, the big news last week was Cordarelle Patterson coming back from injury earlier than expected. Patterson proceeded to handle 14 running back opportunities and score two touchdowns, which is the challenge with Patterson; he can be highly efficient, but he generally doesn’t see the same kind of workload as other RB1s. In last week’s game, Patterson played 39% of the snaps, Tyler Allgeier played 38% of the snaps and saw 11 opportunities while Hilow’s favorite bowling ball, Caleb Huntley, played 21% of the snaps and saw seven opportunities. Given the low passing volume of this offense, these guys are essentially all yardage and touchdown backs in a split backfield (Patterson has eight targets on the year, Allgeier has six, and Huntley has zero). At $11,800, Patterson is objectively a pretty bad play here given his workload, but I’m curious where his ownership ends up. He’s a very obvious, blatantly bad play, so his ownership could end up coming in quite low. While a “bad play,” he still has one of the higher ceilings on the slate, it just comes with a low floor. My motto is always “play highly volatile plays at low ownership, not high ownership,” and that’s how I’ll approach Patterson here. Allgeier’s role is likely to shrink a bit with Patterson’s role growing, but Allgeier is still viable at $6,200 if he’s the one who finds his way into the end zone. Huntley is a harder sell at $4,800, as he’s only likely to get a couple of touches, and at his price, even if he finds his way into the end zone, he isn’t a lock to be optimal.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, good freaking luck. The Falcons have attempted 28 or fewer passes in all but one game this year and are averaging just 22.3 attempts per game. It’s hard to pick out “good” plays given that level of volume. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Olamide Zaccheaus are the guys who are on the field the most, with Damire Byrd, Khadarel Hodge, Parker Hesse, MyCole Pruitt, and special teams back Avery Williams all seeing the field to some degree. Pitts is my favorite play here (because his red zone role is larger than London), and then it’s London, and then Zaccheaus. All of the others are MME punt plays, though I have a fair bit of interest in Byrd, who has two 40+ yard touchdowns on the season (if I’m going to play a punt option, ideally, I want one who can land in the optimal lineup off of one play). This is a short section on the passing game. While I could try to get more nitpicky about each play, the incredibly low volume here means that you’re really just taking shots at who can get a touchdown. The Falcons have yet to produce a 100+ yard receiver and have a whopping ONE total pass catcher game with over 10 DK points that didn’t come with a touchdown (London all the way back in Week 1). You’re hunting for touchdowns here. Good luck.

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