Kickoff Sunday, Nov 13th 8:20pm Eastern

Chargers (
18.75) at

49ers (
26.75)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Chargers visiting the 49ers for a 45.5 total game with San Francisco favored by a touchdown. Should be a fun one with the new-look 49ers backfield. The question is if the banged-up Chargers can keep this competitive or not. 

San Francisco

It’s official, Christian McCaffrey has taken over the 49ers backfield. He saw 27 running back opportunities in Week 8 (SF had a bye in Week 9), including nine targets (oh, and he also threw for a touchdown!). Dude’s a badass, especially on this team with an elite run-blocking unit. He just ran for 5.2 yards per carry against a Rams defense that is ranked 3rd in run defense DVOA, and now he gets the Chargers, who are ranked . . . 29th. Everything lines up for CMC to smash here, and the only real objection would be “well, he could get hurt, or football is weird.” At $11.6k he’s pricey, but not to the extent we’ve seen in the past (he has been this price or higher in four Showdowns already this year). He’s the clear best play on the slate. Jeff Wilson is gone, so his backup will either be Elijah Mitchell (who was designated to return from IR this week, but we don’t know yet if he will indeed be activated) or Tyrion Davis-Price. Last week, Jeff Wilson saw six opportunities as the backup, so it’s a thin role but you can always hope for a touchdown or blowout work with the 49ers as huge home favorites. If Mitchell is activated, though, he’s only $200 and we know he’s talented; he would be an excellent value option. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, CMC showing up really puts a damper on the rest of the receiving corps. Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 25 passes in their last game, nine of which went to CMC, which means everyone else had to split the remaining 16. We know the 49ers aren’t likely to be highly aggressive through the air unless pushed, and we know the Chargers are banged up and significant underdogs, so with that, we should be cautious around the 49ers passing attack unless building rosters that are predicated around the Chargers keeping the game competitive or playing from ahead. The good news for the 49ers is Deebo Samuel will be back so we can expect the normal receiving corps of Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and Juaun Jennings at wide receiver, and then George Kittle at tight end. Deebo’s price has dropped quite a bit after missing a game, and while volume is a concern for all of these guys, $8,800 is cheap for Deebo’s level of talent. Aiyuk and Kittle fall into the “fine” realm. At their prices, both would almost certainly need a touchdown or would need a game script that generates more passing volume (Kittle, especially, sees his volume spike in games in which the 49ers play from behind, because when they’re playing from ahead he gets used more as a run blocker). Jennings is a punt option, and you can also include Ray-Ray McCloud, Ross Dwelley, Tyler Kroft, and Kyle Juszczyk in your MME punt pool. 

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