XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 closes out with the Commanders visiting the Eagles for a 44 total game with Philly favored by 11. I guess we know what to expect as the likeliest scenario for this game! The Eagles are, of course, the last remaining undefeated team, while the Commanders are 4-5 with one of the league’s weaker point differentials to back it up. Good luck, Washington.
We’ll start with the Eagles. The run game is a tough sell here as a split backfield against a Washington defense that is 2nd in run defense DVOA. Miles Sanders has become the lead back here with 60%+ of the snaps in four of the last five games, but with only 13 targets on the season, he’s a very expensive ($9,800) yardage and touchdown back in a difficult matchup who will lose some work to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and of course to Jalen Hurts as well. As a home favorite running back who has performed well this year, I’d expect Sanders to come in at pretty material ownership. If he was going overlooked I’d say the spot would be worth it for his upside despite the difficult matchup, but if he ends up at over 40% ownership, my personal opinion is that would be too high and I want to be under it. Last week, I wrote about Gainwell’s modest workload being too little for his price, and then of course he scored a touchdown on seven opportunities and ended up in the optimal (Showdown is volatile!). He’s basically in the same spot here; you’d almost certainly need a touchdown for him to pay off, but if he gets there, he’s going to do so at what should be low ownership. Poor Boston Scott doesn’t get much work and he’s in the same boat as Gainwell; even though he’s cheaper, his workload is too limited (especially with just one target on the season) that he needs the end zone to pay off.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
The Philly passing game, however, is in a smash spot as Washington is one of the league’s biggest pass funnel defenses. Washington is 25th in pass defense DVOA, for a difference of 23 ranking spots between their pass and run Ds – that’s the second largest difference in the NFL behind only Miami. A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are all fairly priced and the elite matchup gives them plenty of upside, with the only limiting factor being passing volume on an offense that has yet to exceed 36 pass attempts and is averaging about 30. Perhaps the difficult run matchup will tilt Philly’s volume more towards the air, but despite their strong run defense, Washington has been so bad overall that they’re only facing a 57.25% opposing passing play percentage – pretty close to league average. So, while you likely need them to get there on modest volume, the talent of those three pass-catchers and the matchup advantage means they absolutely can. I want to be all over the Philly passing game in this one. Behind the main guys, Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, Jack Stoll, and Grant Calcaterra can all be considered as punt options, with Pascal and Watkins the clearly strong ones (Pascal’s my favorite given his price).
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