So there I was… Sunday afternoon… settled in to watch CW18 and my beloved Bears dominate (oops). I was sitting there with my son, discussing the absolute garbage that the Green Bay/Tennessee game was going to be with two terrible QBs slugging it out for the title of Worst QB of Week 3. Mostly, it was me doing the talking about Malik Willis, as my kid is a Green Bay fan, and as such, I am obligated by Bears fandom to break chops. As I’m sure you all know, Willis went out and fed me my lunch – 13/19-202-1/0 and added 73 on the ground with another tuddy, good for QB6. And for his part, if Levis wouldn’t have thrown two picks, he’d maybe have cracked the top 12 at the position. Such is life as a prognosticator. Win some, lose some, wipe the egg from your face, and soldier on.
I’ll highlight another discussion I had this week. As usual, I sent my picks to Lou Landers (@LandersTalks) on Wednesday. It sparked a bit of conversation on Bo Nix, as I was recommending him as a sit, and Lou had him as a sleeper. Good chat; we both acknowledged the possibilities, and we went on our way. Nix missed the top-12 cut (my measure for QB success in start/sit), and Lou owes me a steak for it. But… it was close. So, I dug a bit. Per PFF, Nix has the biggest differential of fantasy points vs. expected fantasy points at the QB position (-21.7). That’s an interesting opportunity stat, so Lou may have been on to something.
This is a topsy/turvy game, folks. But remember – win some, lose some, wipe the egg from your face, and soldier on. Week 4 awaits!
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– QB: 7-3 (70%)
– RB: 5-5 (50%)
2024 NFL Season: 39-21 (.650)
– QB: 20-10 (67%)
– RB: 19-11 (63%)
It’s been up and down for Murray so far this season, so you may have your trepidations about trotting him out each week. I get it, and maybe he truly is matchup-dependent. Friends, this is the matchup and perhaps the tastiest he’ll have all season. The Commanders get lit up week in/week out by the QB position, and this week will be no different. QB points against the Commanders this season – 30 (Baker Mayfield – QB2), 19 (Daniel Jones – QB6), and 25 (Joe Burrow – QB6). Kyler may be without Trey McBride this week, but he still has plenty of weapons. Absolutely one of my guys this week.
I’m going to stick with this game and go back to Jayden Daniels this week (even though he did me dirty in Week 2). Setting the NFL-rookie and Washington-franchise record for completion percentage in a game on Monday Night Football is pretty impressive. Still, there are other reasons for my optimism this week. Yes, the running thing he does is elite, and we count on that. He’s not stacked with weapons, but Ertz has been reliable, and Mr. McLaurin woke up last week. And I don’t expect the Arizona pass rush to pressure much this week, as they “boast” one of the weakest pressure rates in the league (29%, per PFF), thus creating one of the strongest pass/run blocking advantages on the slate (also per PFF). The stars align in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jayden inside the top five again this week.
Honorable mention: Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, C.J. Stroud
A-a-ron was Rodgers’ing last week like it was 2015, and it was actually fun to see. I’m personally not a fan of the guy for several reasons (what kind of human hates hugs?), which I’m sure crushes Aaron’s ego. But the NFL is a better place with a competitive Rodgers. Now that my kudos are out of the way (BLEH), onward to my jeers for the week. Denver has been one of the tougher matchups for QBs, thanks in large part to the outstanding play of the secondary, which includes Patrick Surtain II and two outstanding safeties (Brandon Jones and P.J. Locke). Rodgers is a master of taking what the defense gives, so we’ll see how this goes. My guess is this is a defensive battle (O/U is 38.5 across the board – third lowest on the docket), resulting in few opportunities for fantasy success. Rodgers is outside the top 12 this week.
Mr. Rodgers’ old neighborhood, Green Bay, has been pretty good this year against QBs, bolstered by Jaire Alexander and new addition Xavier McKinney. Green Bay also has a pretty good pressure rate and converts nearly one out of every four of those pressures into a sack (one of the highest rates in the league this season, per PFF). So that’s the matchup. For his part, Darnold looks revitalized in purple, doesn’t he? Or maybe it’s Justin Jefferson as a fluffer. Either way, buddy is playing pretty good ball. I just don’t like the matchup, and Darnold doesn’t have the bank with me yet to show he can consistently beat tough matchups. Expect Alexander to be all over Jefferson, who you obviously have to start, but could low-key also be a fade this week. Combined with other expected performances, Darnold is outside the top 12 in this matchup.
Honorable mention: Caleb Williams, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson
Jerome Ford hasn’t been spectacular this season, but he’s the guy right now. No one else on the roster is getting significant touches, so this may be more of a game script thing. This week Cleveland travels to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, who rank 31st against the position. I love the matchup and expect the Browns to run a little more this week than they have so far. And while The Land’s offensive line was atrocious last week – 21 pressures for eight sacks – they’re actually decent run blockers, and Oakland’s defensive line has the second-worst run block advantage number of the week. We’ll see how that all plays out, though, as the Browns O-line dealt with several injuries to starters this past Sunday. I’m sticking with this reco, however. Chubba Hubbard just ripped through the LV defense to the tune of 26 touches, 169 yards, and a tuddy. If Chubba can do it, I have faith Ford can muster at least RB2 numbers, with a real shot at low-end RB1 upside.
My god. Remember last week when I said Dallas would be savvy enough to stop the King? Ha. HaHa. Just kidding. Dallas had no answer for Henry, who looks like a rejuvenated back in a run-heavy offense. Buffalo is a juggernaut so far in 2024, and Henry will be NECESSARY to controlling time of possession and keeping Mr. Allen off the field. Buffalo is decent on defense, but they’re 26th against the position for fantasy purposes. They handled Jacksonville’s RBs; I’ll concede that. But the Dolphins and Cardinals backfields cooked, and those backs aren’t Derrick Henry. Expect another heavy dose of Henry this week, leading to a top-10 finish.
Honorable mention: Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams
I was so excited when my Bears signed Swift. No, he wasn’t the biggest name on the market (see above), but he seemed to fit what the team wanted to do (Kansas City clone, anyone?). But after three weeks, I’m super concerned. I read an article over at Pro Football Focus that highlighted Swift’s decreased usage progression from Week 1 to Week 3, specifically due to his ineffectiveness. I hate that for the Bears, who are struggling to find an identity on offense. And while Roschon Johnson looked pretty OK Sunday, all the backs have been bad – so much so that Walter Payton is turning over in his grave at the Bears inability to run the football. And let’s face it – this line may be the worst unit in football (just ask CW18). On the other hand, the Rams haven’t been great against the run, so perhaps there is hope. I have several shares, but none of them are suiting up this week.
Speaking of inefficiency, Rachaad White lasted all of three weeks before the team publicly committed to more touches for Bucky Irving. And Bucky deserves them, as he’s been so much better with the football in his hands despite far fewer snaps. PFF agrees, ranking Irving 17th and White 44th out of 51 qualifiers at the position. Volume was White’s only friend, and he’s losing his grip on that. For what it’s worth, White seems to be still the passing down back, but meh. So what? Week 1 against Washington was decent, but he’s been garbage since, and Bucky actually out-touched him on Sunday. Expect that to be the new norm, and hopefully, you grabbed Irving everywhere you could. I think White is toast in TB unless catastrophe strikes. If you drafted White early this year, you bought high on last year’s volume-based production. My condolences. The Tampa backfield has a new leader, so sit White until he shows us otherwise.
Honorable mention: Ezekiel Elliott, Zach Charbonnet/Kenneth Walker III, Javontae Williams
