Week 9 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 9’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 9-11 (.450)
– WR: 3-7 (50%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 92-68 (.575)
– WR: 48-32 (60%)
– TE: 44-36 (55%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable WRs on BYE this Week
Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens, Calvin Austin III
My Guys This Week
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Opponent: v. Washington Commanders
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 20
Last Four Weeks: 2 (20.68)
It’s been a rough few weeks for Nabers, who had been fantastic prior to the concussion. He was a letdown two weeks ago in his return but flashed Monday against a very tough Steelers defense (10th against WR). Since his return, Nabers has seen 21 targets, resulting in 10 receptions for 112 yards. Not league-winning numbers, but it shows Daniel Jones’ commitment to the best wide receiver on their roster. Monday marked the fourth time this season that Nabers collected at least 12 targets (18, 12, 15, 13), and I expect it to continue as long as Jones and Nabers are battery mates. It’s a tougher matchup than it looks – Washington (ranked 20th against WRs this season) hasn’t given up more than 17.0 WR points just once over the last month (Week 6 against Baltimore). But volume speaks volumes in fantasy. Nabers has it (elite route participation (97.9%) + target share (36.5%) to go along with 645 air yards (6th), and will have it some more Sunday against the Commanders.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 19
Last Four Weeks: 18 (33.08)
Olave had just found his footing when Derek Carr went down with the oblique injury in Week 5, putting up 11.0 points in three straight. In the two games that followed – one target against Tampa Bay and a missed game against the Broncos due to injury. Sunday, however, Olave flashed to the tune of 14 targets, eight receptions, and 107 yards, good for a top-20 finish. And I could go on about which backup is better for Olave, but I don’t have to – Carr is expected back this week. With the return of DC, this entire offense gets a bump (naturally). Oh, and did you see who their opponent is this week? These Saints absolutely destroyed the Panthers in Week 1, and not much has changed for Carolina since. It sounds like Bryce Young is back as the starter, and they just traded Diontae Johnson, which means New Orleans will have the ball plenty this week. I love the spot for Olave.
Honorable mentions: Jakobi Meyers (LV), Drake London (ATL), A.J. Brown (PHI)
My Fades This Week
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Opponent: @ New York Jets
Over/Under – 42.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 4
Last Four Weeks: 5 (24.38)
Nico is still on IR. Stefon was just announced as lost for the season. All of a sudden, Tank is WR1 on this team (at least for the time being, and all due respect to Xavier Hutchinson who should be a top claim this week). I’m still not buying it. Stroud hasn’t been nearly as good as he was last season, and this offense is clearly running through Joe Mixon. Brutal matchup as well, with Dell most likely drawing a lot of Sauce Gardner this week (and the other DBs as well, who are also pretty damn good). If Dell scores a touchdown, he’s generally serviceable. And who knows what the ceiling is now that he’s the guy in that room? He had a run of great games last season (Weeks 9-12), so maybe that’s on the horizon for the foreseeable future. But you know me – you have to show me the candy first. And this is about as tough a matchup as you’ll see as a WR.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: v. Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 9
Last Four Weeks: 17 (32.93)
MHJ burned me last week, and to be clear, he has the ability to do so again this week, but allow me to make the case against him in Week 9. I think MHJ has HOF potential; I really do. But he’s still a rookie and has some growth opportunities. Additionally, his QB isn’t who we thought he was. OK, he isn’t who I thought he was (but I know it wasn’t just me). Sure, there have been games where Murray and MHJ were vibing – Week 2 against the Rams (WR1 finish) and this past Sunday against the Dolphins (WR5). But that’s really it. MHJ’s other finishes – 105, 20, 23, 58, 125, and 61. I don’t like the volatility that seems to be plaguing him in 2024. I can’t think that gets better against a Bears defense that has been very good against WRs on the season (9th). And for the record, I’ll never be ready to talk about what happened Sunday – I can’t even write about it yet. Factor that gut-wrenching ending in, and you’ll most likely have a motivated defensive backfield that shows up in Arizona this week.
Honorable mentions: Jalen McMillan (TB), Khalil Shakir (BUF), Diontae Johnson (CAR)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable TEs on BYE this Week
George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth
My Guys This Week
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Opponent: v. Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 20
Last Four Weeks: 7 (10.31)
Njoku was here last week, and I’m running him back out there again. After a rough first four weeks to the season, Njoku has hit his stride. And fortunately for him, both QBs – Watson and Winston – seem to like throwing him the ball. Watson is out for the remainder of the season, and Winston is in (for now). I love what I saw on Sunday from Jameis, and it means moving forward for Njoku. Over the last three weeks, Njoku is averaging 9+ targets, 6+ receptions, and 55 yards to go along with a touchdown in two straight games. I love the volume and opportunity. Add to that the fact that Cleveland’s WRs are going to be a mess each week, and Njoku is set to eat. The matchup doesn’t scare me, with the Chargers ranking 20th on the season.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 29
Last Four Weeks: 31 (21.15)
You’re welcome, Kelce owners. Since I wrote disparagingly about Taylor’s future fiancé in my Week 4 S/S column, Travis has reemerged as a must-start at the position – TE5, TE7, TE30 (oops), and TE4. We’re not worried about him anymore, are we? Even with the arrival of Deandre Hopkins (who I expect to actually help open up the offense). Tampa Bay is brutal against tight ends (29th) and even worse over the last month (22+ and two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks). Marquee player in probably the best TE matchup of the week.
Honorable mentions: Taysom Hill (NO), Cade Otton (TB)
My Fades This Week
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: v. Denver Broncos
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 12
Last Four Weeks: 10 (11.98)
You’re also welcome here, as Andrews has also had a nice run since I wrote about him back in Week 5 (TE19, TE3, TE3, TE10). He’s back in our good graces as well, but I don’t like this matchup. After getting gouged by Brock Bowers in Week 5, the Denver defense has been super stingy to the position (6.1, 8.1, and 3.5). Granted, none of those weeks were they faced with the TE talent they’ll see this week in Andrews and Likely, and let’s face it – the Ravens are special. In fact, if I keep writing I may switch him to a start recommendation. Their talented TE is seeing volume on a jugger offense, but a tough matchup fuels my gut hunch here. And to be fair, there are also a lot of decent TE matchups this week.
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: v. Detroit Lions
Over/Under – 48.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 1
Last Four Weeks: 1 (5.70)
Kraft has been fantastic all season, but it’s really these last five weeks that have put the Green Bay TE on the fantasy map. Not since Jermichael Finley have we been this excited about a Packers tight end. Top 10 finishes in four of the last five, fueled by a touchdown surge (five TDs during that span). This is just another situation where a talented player is set to face a damn difficult matchup. The Detroit Lions rank first against the position, giving up an average of only 5.3 points a week and one touchdown all season. Wide receivers clean up against the Lions (30th, 33.5 points per), tight ends not so much. I expect a big number in this game, and I expect the GB wide receivers to feast. I’m tempering my expectations for Tucker.
Honorable mentions: Mike Gesicki (CIN), Tyler Conklin (NYJ), Hunter Henry (NE)
