Week 9 Start/Sit: QB/RB

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 9’s action.

But first…

Last Week: 11-9 (.550)

– QB: 6-4 (60%)

– RB: 5-5 (50%)

2024 NFL Season: 99-61 (.619)

– QB: 51-29 (64%)

– RB: 48-32 (60%)

Quarterbacks

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable QBs on BYE this Week

Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Brock Purdy

My Guys This Week

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent: v. Las Vegas Raiders

Over/Under – 47.0

Opponent Rank v. QB: 13 (17.1)

Last Four Weeks: 18 (17.25)

Burrow, QB3 on the season, has a decent matchup this week at home vs. the Raiders, who have given up 21+ to the position in three of the last four weeks. For his part, Burrow has been legit all year, though his last two finishes leave a bit to be desired (QB16, QB23). He’s generally been a Top 10 player other than that, and these last two can be blamed on the matchup and lack of his full complement of weapons. Higgins is day-to-day, but at this point, I’d expect him to go. The Bengal defense is bad enough to keep this competitive throughout, and Burrow should be just fine.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Opponent: v. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under – 51.0

Opponent Rank v. QB: 1 (10.9)

Last Four Weeks: 6 (12.78)

It’s a tough matchup for Allen and the Bills this week, but I still like him as a Top 12 at the position. Miami, despite some fantastic performances against the position, was just gouged on the road against the Cardinals – a trend I expected to continue this week in Orchard Park. Allen has three Top 5 finishes and four Top 10 in eight games. Since the Cooper trade, the offense has opened back up, and Allen has posted 20.0+ in back-to-back games. This game has the highest O/U on the slate, and I expect both offenses to be cooking, which speaks to opportunity in this game.

Honorable mention: Jayden Daniels (WAS), Jalen Hurts (PHI), Patrick Mahomes (KC)

My Fades This Week

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: @ Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under – 44.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 16

Last Four Weeks: 13 (15.51)

Despite their middle-of-the-pack ranking, the Chiefs have been solid against opposing QBs this season, holding the position to fewer than 20.0 points in 6/7 games (the only dud was Lamar in Week 1). At home, on Monday Night Football, I expect that to continue. Andy Reid’s offense is third in time of possession on the season, so I think they’ll control the clock here to keep Baker off the field. Additionally, Baker will be without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin again this week. While that didn’t seem to be a problem against the Falcons, I don’t expect Baker to throw the ball 50 times this game. You start him if you have him, but I expect him outside the Top 12 this week.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Opponent: @ Cleveland Browns

Over/Under – 42.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 16

Last Four Weeks: 26 (20.20)

There were signs of life last week for Herbert and this offense, with a couple of huge plays bolstering Herbert’s final line – 20/32-279-2-0, good for QB9 on the week. His other finishes? Just one inside the Top 20. This offense just isn’t good, and the Cleveland defense poses a tough matchup. The Browns have given up 24.0+ in three of the last four, but those were games against some damn good QBs – Jayden Daniels (24.2), Jalen Hurts (26.5), and Lamar Jackson (27.05). Herbert isn’t those guys on a good day, so the sit is strongly advised.

Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (IND), Matthew Stafford (LAR), Jacoby Brissett (NE)

Running Backs

Notable RBs on BYE this Week

Najee Harris, Jalen Warren, Jordan Mason, Christian McCaffery

My Guys This Week

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: v. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under – 46.0

Opponent Rank v. RB: 18

Last Four Weeks: 26 (26.00)

I love this matchup for Jones, as the Colts have been brutal against RBs for the past month (including a 45-burger to Tank Bigsby and the Jaguars). DeForest Buckner is back and played a hell of a ball game against the Texans, but Joe Mixon was still heavily involved (29 touches, 134 yards, TD). I expect ample opportunity here for Jones against a defense susceptible to receiving backs. Super sturdy floor for Jones, RB19 on the season, and he’s finished in the Top 24 at the position in 5/7 games in 2024. Sam Darnold has fallen back to earth in the last three weeks, but I still expect Jones to pull 4-5 targets in this one, maybe more. 100 total yards and a touchdown will work just fine for us.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Opponent: @ Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 26

Last Four Weeks: 29 (28.90)

I think that outside Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams has been just about the most consistent producer at the RB position, finishing in the Top 24 all season long, including two Top 10 finishes. Super tasty matchup against the Seahawks, who rank 26th against the position on the season, and even worse over the last four weeks. Kupp and Nacua are back, which means the defense can’t stack the box against him. In fact, his opportunity-share actually went up with stud WRs back in the lineup. Williams is a near-lock for 20+ carries, five or so targets, and 100+ yards against the Seahawks, and he’s just about my favorite RB play of the week.

Honorable mention: Saquon Barkley (PHI), Bijan Robinson (ATL), D’Andre Swift (CHI)

My Fades This Week

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Opponent: v. Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under – 42.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 2

Last Four Weeks: 4 (16.40)

I love that Chubb is back – I think it’s great for the NFL. He’s just not in rhythm yet, and the Browns offense under Watson has been brutal. Maybe both situations will change this week, but I want to see it before I’m comfortable trotting him out there in a week with so many good RB matchups. Last week, the tight ends went nuts; this week, it’ll be the RBs. Also, the Chargers have been exceptional against the RB position on the season, holding opposing running backs to under 20.0 points in 6/7 games so far. Granted, they haven’t played all studs, but they held up pretty well against Kamara and Miller last Sunday. Sit him until we see it.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Opponent: @ Tennessee Titans

Over/Under – 37.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 20

It’s honestly a pretty good matchup for Stevenson, as the Titans – who are a respectable defense – have been absolutely gashed the past two weeks (27.3 and 44.55, respectively). Stevenson is just terribly inefficient. Take last week – a week where Stevenson posted a Top 5 finish. If it weren’t for the two touchdowns, we’d be looking at a finish outside the Top 24 at the position. Speaking to the inefficiency and inconsistency, Stevenson is about 50/50 on where he lands on a weekly basis – four Top 10s and three finishes outside the top 40. It all just depends on the week and game script for Rhamondre, and he could just as easily crack the Top 10 again this week. It’s that kind of inconsistency I hate to have on my team, and I’m rolling with my gut this week.

Honorable mention: Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS), Rachaad White (TB), Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)

Full Week 14 NFL Edge >

Week 9 Start/Sit: QB/RB