Week 12 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 12’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 127-93 (.577)
– WR: 66-44 (60%)
– TE: 61-49 (55%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable WRs on BYE this Week
Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas Jr.
My Guys This Week
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: @ Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under – 49.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 23 (29.2)
Last Four Weeks: 28 (41.18)
I really like A.J. Brown to go off this week. He’s got a fantastic matchup with the Rams, who have given up over 30 points a game to opposing wideouts over the last four, including six touchdowns to the position during that span (the Seahawks WRs obliterated this group for nearly 60 points back in Week 9). Brown matches up well with all Rams defenders, projecting the second-highest matchup grade over at Pro Football Focus (93.6). The O/U is juicy, as Vegas expects big scoring in this one. DeVonta Smith’s disappearance in this offense (see below) is mind-boggling to me, though it just solidifies my expectations for this week. Jalen Hurts’ rating when targeting Brown is 123.6 on the season, which is absurd, and with 96% route participation, that is going to translate to one of those monster A.J. Brown games for us in Week 12.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: v. Philadelphia
Over/Under – 49.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 6 (22.5)
Last Four Weeks: 1 (16.80)
At first glance, this matchup appears daunting, to say the least. The Eagles rank 6th against WRs in 2024 and have fared even better over the last four weeks (1st). That’s nasty, right? Well, maybe. A look behind the curtain reveals this may be smoke and mirrors. Aside from Mr. Burrow back in Week 8, the Eagles haven’t faced a quality QB/WR since Baker & Co. in Week 4. Those ranks are further bolstered by the past two weeks, where they’ve contended with Cooper Rush (yawn) and Jayden Daniels, who’s either still reeling from the rib injury or the league has figured him out (I’m going with the latter). In any event, the Eagles don’t scare me, and I have two words to prove it – Cooper Kupp. Along with Puka Nacua, they form the best 1-2 WR punch in the league, and you’ll see it again this week.
Honorable mention: Malik Nabers (NYG), Ladd McConkey (LAC), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
My Fades This Week
DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 11 (24.8)
Last Four Weeks: 2 (23.47)
I’ve always loved DeAndre Hopkins, seriously. I’ve also loved Andre Johnson (the nastiest slant move you’ll ever see), and when the Texans drafted “Nook”, I remember thinking, “damn, this tandem is special.” A target, reception, and yardage MONSTER his whole career, he’s now teamed with arguably one of the best QBs ever – certainly the best he’s ever played with. Fireworks, right? Well, not exactly. One solid game in four since he arrived in KC against one of the worst defenses against the position (Tampa Bay). Outside that game, he’s seen five targets a game or less, and he hasn’t scored any touchdowns. Xavier Worthy seems to be getting more involved, and if he could get his head out of the clouds(0:28 second mark of the video), he’d be even more prominently featured – which means fewer looks for DeAndre. Carolina’s secondary isn’t as bad as one would think, and I’m expecting them to give Hopkins fits on Sunday.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: @ Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under – 49.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 23 (29.2)
Last Four Weeks: 28 (41.18)
Smith has struggled these past few weeks, to put it delicately. After a nice (and customary) start to the season, Smith took a massive shot in Week 3 (concussion) and was forced to miss a game. It’s been a different story for Smith since he’s returned, and his results have been inconsistent and hard to trust. After garnering nearly 10 targets a game from Weeks 1-3, he’s seen more than six only once since then. In games, he scores a touchdown; he’s been quite serviceable (averaging 17.0). When he doesn’t, it’s a miserable line for us – 7.6 points in those three games combined. If you’ve read my column all year, you know I hate inconsistency, even in tasty matchups like this one. This is Saquon’s offense now, which means less opportunity for everyone else. With Goedert back, Smith seems to have slipped even further down the pecking order. Keep him on your bench until he proves otherwise worthy.
Honorable mention: Jerry Jeudy (CLE), Mike Evans (TB), Jakobi Meyers (LVR)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable TEs on BYE this Week
Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki, Taysom Hill, Tyler Conklin, Evan Engram
My Guys This Week
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Opponent: @ Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 26 (11.80)
Last Four Weeks: 23 (14.35)
First of all, I have to acknowledge that as of this writing, LaPorta is questionable, trending towards practicing on a limited basis all week with a shot to play on Sunday. And let’s hope he does, as the matchup is TASTY. This tilt is tied for the biggest O/U of the week (so far), and there will be offense aplenty. The Colts aren’t great (that’s me being nice) against tight ends, regularly giving up touchdowns, yards, and points. In fact, they’re one of just a handful of teams to surrender 20+ points against TEs multiple times this season. If it’s not LaPorta, it’s Brock Wright, and – let me be clear – this isn’t an endorsement of Brock (one target, five yards last week in a game where his team dropped a fifty-sammich). If Sam doesn’t go, pivot from Brock. If Sam does go, giddy-up.
Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: v. Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 23 (10.8)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 21 (13.53)
Friends, this is a matchup play, as the Ravens stink against TEs (and QBs and WRs – see my start recos at those positions). This is another huge O/U for the week (50.5), and the Chargers are going to have to throw to keep up. Dissly turned in a Top 5 showing last week on the back of a six-target, 4-80-1 stat line – and I like that level of production to continue this week. Will is actually averaging six targets a game over the last five games (also known as Justin Herbert’s resurgence), so the opportunity is there. Dissly has dominated snap share since Week 6, and is pulling a target on every six snaps. That’s solid volume in this offense. Add it all up and I love Dissly this week, especially with the void left due to the ridiculous amount of teams on bye this week.
Honorable mention: Brock Bowers (LVR), Travis Kelce (KC), George Kittle (SF)
My Fades This Week
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ New York Giants
Over/Under – 42.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 1 (5.8)
Last Four Weeks: 3 (7.87)
OK. Hear me out. Yes, he’s been amazing. Yes, you’re most likely winning weeks with the production you’re getting from him. And yes, he could very well be a league winner. But not this week. Not only are the Giants STOUT against the position (ranking first on the season), but Otton figures to draw plenty of Isiah Simmons and a matchup grade of 70.6 per Pro Football Focus in favor of Simmons (who has played plenty at safety as a pro). The Giants have only given up one touchdown to tight ends all season – ONE – and more than 60 yards also just once. Cade is fantastic, but this matchup is brutal.
Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: v. Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under – 49.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 3 (6.8)
Last Four Weeks: 22 (14.33)
I really could make the same argument against Parkinson as I did for Otton. Yep, I think I will. Super tough matchup against an Eagles defense (ranking third against TEs in 2024) who likewise have surrendered just one touchdown to tight ends all year (and also, likewise, it was in Week 11 for both). PFF grades Parkinson as one of the most disadvantaged matchups of the week (negative 30%), and rightfully so –Philadelphia linebackers are solid in coverage (all grading 61.5 or higher, per PFF). Parkinson isn’t nearly as talented as Otton and also has two all-world WRs with which to fight for catches. Colby hasn’t finished Top 10 since Week 1, and he’ll be on the outside again this week.
Honorable mention: Dalton Schultz (HOU), Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR), T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
