Week 12 Start/Sit: QB/RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 12’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– QB: 7-3 (70%)
– RB: 5-5 (50%)
2024 NFL Season: 140-80 (.636)
– QB: 73-37 (66%)
– RB: 67-43 (61%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable QBs on BYE this Week
Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence
My Guys This Week
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: v. Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 30 (21.5)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 25 (20.75)
Metamorphosis (noun): a change of the form or nature of a thing or person into a completely different one. Use it in a sentence, Derek! “Justin Herbert’s metamorphosis into QB1 territory has been nothing short of spectacular.” Seriously. Weeks 1-6 were garbage for Justin – never more than 16 points in any contest, and not one finish higher than 21. Since then? Three Top 10s in five games and no fewer than 21 points. The change? Check out this interesting read from SI, which credits Jim Harbaugh with rebuilding Herbert’s fragile confidence. If you need more evidence before you believe, click here. As a result, the Chargers have been way more pass-heavy recently after starting the season as a run-first offense, and we need to be here for it. Stupid good matchup this week, and he’s set to finish the season rolling (scoop where you can).
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: @ Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 20 (17.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 22 (18.60)
Kyler Murray has frustrated me all season, as I’m sure he has you as well. No other position impacts our fantasy teams as significantly as the QB – if you have Hurts, Jackson, or Baker, chances are you are sitting pretty in your league standings. And while Murray is QB7 on the season, your record is probably closer to .500 based solely on his inconsistent production. Five Top 10s, five finishes at QB15 or lower. He has game-wrecking potential, undoubtedly. But the rollercoaster of the last few weeks is what you get with Kyler – QB12, QB30, QB4. You play the matchups here, and Seattle is a fine one. The Seahawks have looked good here and there, but they certainly struggle against playmakers, and Kyler is a playmaker (sometimes). His legs will always make him viable, however, and Murray has rushing scores in three of his last four. Maybe it’s just a gut hunch, but I expect a big game here.
Honorable mention: Jayden Daniels (WAS), Bo Nix (DEN), Jared Goff (DET)
My Fades This Week
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: @ Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 1 (12.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 9 (14.75)
Have you met the Chicago Bears defense? Especially against QBs? Allow me to introduce them – in 10 games this season, five games under 10.0 points allowed, eight games under 20 points allowed, and only seven touchdowns surrendered to the position. They can be gashed in the run game, mind you, but they’re stout against both QBs and WRs. Darnold has been serviceable, but he’s shaky and hasn’t convinced me that he’s that guy. There is all kinds of buzz this week that Darnold could be the Giants QB heading into 2025, but I’m not buying him as a viable starter in this league (think David Carr as a ceiling). His numbers against the Titans were respectable, I’ll give you that, but it was one of only two games in his last six where he’s managed to surpass 20 points. He’s a mediocre option in good matchups, and this matchup is about as “not-good” as it gets.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Opponent: @ Miami Dolphins
Over/Under – 46.0
Opponent Rank v. QB: 3 (12.9)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 19 (18.00)
Real-life Drake Maye is shaping up to be a pretty good QB. I say this through gritted teeth, as our rookie QB (ours as if I have ownership stake in the Bears) Caleb Williams, has struggled mightily. Poised is a word I’d use with Maye, as well as a calming presence. My man Stuart Scott would say, “Cool as the other side of the pillow.” Flowers for the man aside, he just hasn’t wowed in fantasy yet. Maye hasn’t finished higher than QB14 in his last four games. That might not be entirely his fault, but the fact remains that he’s not dazzling us. Other than Hunter Henry, his weapons are lacking (though promising), and the game script has remained simple (he’s still a rookie, mind you), resulting in a low ceiling for Drake. PFF doesn’t love him either, as they actually have him graded below Daniel Jones (gasp) despite his run grade being higher than anyone not named Josh Allen (which shocked me also). Miami is a tough matchup for QBs in 2024, though they’ve been beaten up a bit in their last four (Josh Allen, Kyler Murray). This is going to be a MEHHHHHH stat line for us, outside the Top 12.
Honorable mention: Jameis Winston (CLE), Matthew Stafford (LAR), Bryce Young (CAR)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable RBs on BYE this Week
Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Chase Brown, Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Tank Bigsby
My Guys This Week
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Opponent: @ Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 20 (21.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 20 (24.43)
As a Bears fan, two things disgust me (just two?) – seeing David Montgomery in a Lions uniform (really any uniform other than the navy and orange) and that Detroit has two top 12 RBs on the roster. Regardless of my pettiness, both backs have been fantastic for us this season. Montgomery is RB12 on the year and has finished outside the top 24 at the position only once in 10 games. He’s a touchdown BEAST, which is the heart and soul of his value, but he throws in decent rushing yardage to go along with 2-3 catches every game as a bonus. The Colts are susceptible to good running backs, especially ones that catch passes also, so I love the matchup. With an O/U north of 50, I expect Montgomery to kick in with another two-TD performance this week.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: v. Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 25 (22.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (28.90)
Kenneth Walker III is a STUD. Read it again. PFF grades him higher than all other backs except Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. With the Buffalo game being the exception (script), he’s presented no worse than a stable floor all season – 11+ plus in all games not played against the Bills. The main thing that limits him is opportunity, as he’s only toted the rock more than 20 times twice this season. This week, he gets the Arizona Cardinals, who have been a dumpster fire against the run this season, giving up 40 points or more on three occasions (most in the league). They have, however, been better recently, handling the likes of D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, and Breece Hall. My biggest factor here is in the trenches – PFF gives Seattle a +20 advantage score against the Cardinals, which is on par with the weeks where Arizona was gouged. Another game with a big O/U (notice a trend?) puts Walker III in a position to have a huge game.
Honorable mention: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), Christian McCaffrey (SF), Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
My Fades This Week
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: @ Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 19 (21.1)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 27 (25.75)
This goes against my philosophy of attacking matchups, but hear me out. Yes, the Bears are bad against the run, and yes, they’ve been especially terrible this past month (including rushing QBs). This has more to do with Jones’ current situation. In what has turned into a bonafide timeshare, Jones has seen his snap count decrease significantly over the past two weeks – from 75% or higher to just barely over 50%. The recipient of the lost volume – Cam Akers, who hasn’t been super efficient with the touches but is getting them regardless. My guess is this is workload management, as several outlets report injury history and wear/tear as concerns. It also doesn’t help that he may be in somewhat of a doghouse with Kevin O’Connell. The Bears played inspired football this past Sunday, and this game is in Soldier, so there’s space for them to stiffen up against the run as well.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 32 (28.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 29 (26.40)
As of this writing, we’re not certain Pacheco is going to lace ‘em up Sunday against Carolina, but he’s definitely trending in that direction. If/when he does, this is your reminder not to get too excited. I don’t like first-games-back after lengthy injury absences, and there is history and science behind it – especially with leg injuries. Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula and ligament damage back in Week 2, and has been on IR since. He has been designated for return, and all reports suggest he’ll hit the field this Sunday in Carolina. Be warned – returning to the field will take time to acclimate. Absolutely expect a limited workload as they ease Pacheco back in, and very realistically expect a timeshare ROS with Kareem Hunt (who’s been fantastic) sprinkled with some Carson Steele. And damn… this matchup is just about as tasty as you can get.
Honorable mention: Nick Chubb (CLE), Rico Dowdle (DAL), Tony Pollard (TEN)
