Week 11 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 11’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 11-9 (.550)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 5-5 (50%)
2024 NFL Season: 115-85 (.575)
– WR: 60-40 (60%)
– TE: 55-45 (55%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable WRs on BYE this Week
Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jalen McMillian, Xavier Leggette
My Guys This Week
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Opponent: v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 27 (29.8)
Last Four Weeks: 5 (24.43)
A touchdown in seven straight games? WHAT? Yep. And I’m on record saying he’s in a fantastic spot to make it eight. The Jaguars have been one of the most generous teams to WRs all season, and the Lions’ pass-catchers will be the beneficiaries in Week 11. Goff has alternated three-game stretches over the last six games, with the past three being atrocious. He threw five interceptions Sunday against the Texans, which is more than he’d thrown all season long up to that point. Here’s betting this is a get-right game for Goff, and St. Brown – who has an 86.3 matchup score on the week – will take advantage.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: @ New England Patriots
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 17 (26.4)
Last Four Weeks: 14 (29.60)
Mannnnnn does Matt Stafford love him some Puka. And because Matt loves him, we love him. The proof is in the Hamburger Helper. Throw out the Seattle game (early ejection), and Nacua has 23 targets, 16 receptions, and 204 yards in those other two games since returning from IR. No touchdowns, mind you, but we’re buying the volume here. Nacua is a chain-mover and, as such, will live in the 10-target range ROS. Kupp’s numbers are similar, so it’s really dealer’s choice on a week-to-week basis. The Patriots – believe it or not – have a decent secondary, and PFF doesn’t love Nacua’s matchups this week. But if Stafford is cooking, Nacua is eating.
Honorable mention: Drake London (ATL), Garrett Wilson (NYJ), George Pickens (PIT)
My Fades This Week
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
Opponent: v. Green Bay Packers
Over/Under – 41.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 13 (24.5)
Last Four Weeks: 19 (31.75)
Being a Bears fan is generally difficult. This season – after the buildup – has been brutal. The image of DJ walking off the field mid-play against the Cardinals is something I can’t unsee, and I won’t shake it until he shows me something. This offense is in such a state of flux, culminating in the firing of Shane Waldron this week. While I never root for anyone to lose their job, it was evident a change was necessary. And hell, maybe this rallies the troops and we see an inspired performance. But with a new play-caller (who also has a not-so-great recent track record) and a locker room asking for a change at the QB position, there is too much chaos around this offense. Two words come to mind – dumpster fire. Until they figure it out, stay away.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: @ Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 41.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 2 (20.7)
Last Four Weeks: 2 (21.83)
Opposite Moore this week is Jayden Reed, who’s been quite good. Operating primarily out of the slot (80% of routes), he’s worked himself into WR8 on the season. Yes, he’s a much better best-ball play due to glaring inconsistency, but we love the explosive production, huh? I mention slot participation as it is what concerns me this week. The Bears primary slot defender is Kyler Gordon – who is really good in that role. Actually, the Bears have defended the slot well all season, which doesn’t bode well for any Packers receiver. Pass-catchers have had a rough go of it against the Bears this season (they rank second against the position), and I expect more of the same Sunday in Chicago.
Honorable mention: Jerry Jeudy (CLE), Josh Downs (IND), DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable TEs on BYE this Week
Theo Johnson, Trey McBride, Cade Otton, Ja’Tavion Sanders
My Guys This Week
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: @ Buffalo Bills
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 11 (7.80)
Last Four Weeks: 18 (12.55)
12, 16, 12 – Kelce’s targets in the last three weeks. 20, 20, 16 – Kelce’s fantasy outputs in those same three games. 4, 3, 1 – Travis’ finishes in Weeks 8, 9, and 10. In fact, Kelce has Top 10 finishes in five of the last six (save the dud in San Francisco). It took a minute, but Taylor’s beau is back to must-start status every week. And while I do expect this one to be more defensive than offensive, Kelce’s volume will work for us. 6-65 will work just fine.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Opponent: v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 26 (11.0)
Last Four Weeks: 28 (18.40)
Another stud that took a minute to start clicking, LaPorta has been palatable – if not good – over the last five games (three Top 10s). Even with Goff struggling, LaPorta has managed adequate targets/touches to go along with touchdowns in two of the last three games. You love to see that, especially with a tasty matchup looming large this weekend (reference Jacksonville’s generosity mentioned above). A touchdown to go along with a handful of receptions and about 40 yards will have Sam easily in the top 10 once again, but there’s space for more.
Honorable mention: Brock Bowers (LVR), Hunter Henry (NE), David Njoku (CLE)
My Fades This Week
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: @ Denver Broncos
Over/Under – 44.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 18 (9.0)
Last Four Weeks: 12 (11.5)
Pitts continues to baffle me. He’s one of the most physically gifted athletes in the league and works with a QB who has shown a predilection for throwing to his TEs. His weekly inconsistency is frustrating, as are the results (he has just one finish inside the top 10 in his last five contests). Drake London and Darnell Mooney have really stepped up, and Bijan has factored more heavily in the offense of late (finally), which hasn’t boded well for Kyle. This week, it’s the Broncos who’ve defended the position well as of late, minus Sunday. But this isn’t the Chiefs, and Pitts isn’t Kelce. For me, Pitts is hard to trust on the road this week.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: @ Detroit Lions
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 2 (5.7)
Last Four Weeks: 3 (7.85)
If you’ve followed my patterns, this space has consistently been occupied by tight ends opposing the Lions. And rightfully so. Detroit is phenomenally stingy against the position, including names like Trey McBride, Jason Ferguson, Tucker Kraft, and Cade Otton. This week, it’s Evan Engram, whose volume we’ve come to both love and expect. Mac Jones wisely kept feeding Engram in Lawrence’s absence last week, though it appears likely Trevor will be back for this one. That’s generally good news for Engram owners, but I’m not sure it matters for this one. It’s a tough matchup for me this week, and Engram will be on my bench.
Honorable mention: Jonnu Smith (MIA), Zach Ertz (WAS), Tucker Kraft (GB)
