Week 10 Start/Sit: QB/RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 10’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 16-4 (.800)
– QB: 8-2 (80%)
– RB: 8-2 (80%)
2024 NFL Season: 115-65 (.639)
– QB: 59-31 (66%)
– RB: 56-34 (62%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable QBs on BYE this Week
Jameis Winston, Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew II, Geno Smith
My Guys This Week
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 51.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 30 (20.8)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 32 (25.01)
Fresh off the bye week and right into one of the biggest O/U’s of the week, Brock is set to cook. The Buccaneers defense has been brutal over the last month and was just trounced on Monday night by Mahomes and the Chiefs. McCaffrey may be back for this one, and getting that kind of weapon back is a fantastic thing. Even if McCaffrey isn’t back, however, the pond is still stocked. Jauan Jennings should also be on the field this week, Deebo should be good to go, and George Kittle is set for a huge day. I expect a big number in this one, and I’m betting Purdy is inside the top five at the position for the week.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 47.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 32 (23.4)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (23.34)
After a pedestrian couple of fantasy finishes (QB27, QB13, QB16), Darnold found his way back into the top 10 this past week against the Colts. It wasn’t pretty, mind you, but here we are. This week, Darnold & Co. got the Jaguars, the most generous defense to the position, who have given up 30 points or more in 6/9 games this season and have given up multiple touchdown passes in six of the last seven. Jefferson is obviously a play, but I think Addison and Jones benefit here also. This one is almost too easy.
Honorable mention: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Daniel Jones (NYG)
My Fades This Week
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: v. New York Jets
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 4 (13.6)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 28 (20.18)
Kyler Murray is fresh off a 6.3-point performance against the Bears on Sunday, and if you watched the game, you probably realize that Murray just isn’t a good QB. He’ll have his weeks, but he’s just far too inconsistent to trust. Three top 10 finishes and six outside the top 12 at the position (including QB30 v. the Bears). The Jets defense was gouged pretty good in Weeks 6 through 8 (yielding an average of 25.1 points per game), but came back around this past Sunday at home against the Texans (13.5 points). The Jets have been pretty fantastic against QBs on the season as a whole, surrendering less that 15.0 in every other game not named Week 6 through Week 8. It was a tough matchup and an inconsistent QB. Nope.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Opponent: @ Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 1 (11.1)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 10 (14.77)
The Bears defense is good, y’all. They limit scoring and yardage and create opportunities through takeaways (4th in the NFL). Plus, they dominate opposing QBs for fantasy purposes. For reference, see Kyler Murray above (6.3 points). In fact, they’ve given up more than 20 points to the position just once this season. Drake Maye has been fun to watch and has actually been fantasy-serviceable in his starts (throw out the Jets game due to injury), but if he didn’t have 95 rushing yards against the Titans Sunday, his week would have been complete garbage for us. He hits a brick wall this week at Soldier Field, and honestly, I’m not expecting him to post ten points total.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (IND), Matthew Stafford (LAR), Jacoby Brissett (NE)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable RBs on BYE this Week
Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison, Zamir White, Kenneth Walker III
My Guys This Week
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Opponent: v. Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 11 (18.6)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 21 (25.58)
Kamara just continues to be there for us, week after week. Outside of the Kansas City and Denver games, he’s had four top-10 finishes and has landed no lower than RB17 in the rest. We knew he’d have a day against Carolina (RB4), so no surprises there. And you might be concerned with the Atlanta matchup. Don’t be. While the Falcons have been quite good on the season, they’ve been far worse this past month – even Dallas RBs got them for 20+ points this past Sunday. New Orleans is a hot mess, but one thing is for certain – Kamara will get fed regardless. 35 touches this past week, with Kendre Miller hitting the IR. Thirty. Five. Volume speaks volumes.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: @ Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under – 42
Opponent Rank v. RB: 30 (25.3)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 29 (29.53)
This one is from the probably too obvious to use, but here we are. Barkley is RB2 on the season due in large part to explosive output – he has four games over 30.0 points. Barkley can drop a 30 burger on you at any point (take, for example, last week against the Jags – 30 touches, 199 yards, two tuddys), but I will also cede that he’s fairly inconsistent (16.0 or fewer in the other four games, including a 6.4 point dud against the Browns), but so what. He’s an absolute every-week starter, especially against a defense (Dallas) that has given up fewer than 20 points to RBs just once on the season and has yielded 10 touchdowns to the position as well.
Honorable mention: Derrick Henry (BAL), Aaron Jones (JAX), James Cook (BUF)
My Fades This Week
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 51.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 16 (20.0)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 30 (30.23)
FINALLY. Maybe. Which just about sums it up. The 49ers designated McCaffrey to return from injured reserve, which officially opens McCaffrey’s 21-day practice window. Reports indicate CMC is expected to be on the field Monday. If that’s the case, of course, we’re starting him (which seems like an odd thing to say in a sit recommendation). But this is your warning not to expect much for a couple of reasons. First, returns from IR take time, and my guess is he’ll be on a snap count. Second, and maybe even more worrisome for ROS – the 49ers run game has been decent without him. Translation – Jordan Mason (who is questionable for Sunday) and Isaac Guerendo are going to cut into that workload. I love the matchup, for what that’s worth. And he’ll be in my lineup if he plays. But that doesn’t mean I have to like it.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Opponent: @ Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under – 41.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 1 (10.2)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 3 (15.00)
Javontae Williams has shown just enough this season to wet our appetite for what could be. Generally speaking, however, it never materializes – just two top 15’s on the season, sandwiched in between these gems – 53, 27, 50, 31, 45, 36, 31. The volume has been fairly steady for Williams since Week 4, it’s just not translating for him. The strength of schedule is definitely a factor, as when he has a decent matchup, he’s been quite serviceable (as an RB3-type). But that’s not this week. This week, it’s the Chiefs who have yielded fewer than 10 fantasy points to RBs in five out of eight games. Now, for what it’s worth, pass-catching RBs have fared well against Kansas City, so maybe that’s an exhibit of the case for Williams on Sunday. I don’t trust that it will be, and Javontae is a nope for me this week.
Honorable mention: Austin Ekeler (WAS), Rico Dowdle (DAL), Tony Pollard (TEN)
