Lex Miraglia is a podcaster and lead researcher at OWS. In Underowned|Underdog, Lex breaks down one of the most exciting opportunities available to us at the moment from a “hunting for first-place finishes” perspective: the ultra-soft drafts taking place weekly in the Underdog Battle Royale: a top-heavy “draft” tournament that provides us with clear, easy paths to first place. (Note: this is JM writing this. I actually started attacking the Battle Royale this week, and was almost laughing at the lack of understanding my fellow drafters had of what it would take to win. Two days later, Lex passed along this article. Get drafting!!!)
The goal of this article is to present you with information & strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is currently filled with an inexperienced field of entrants. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!
Only the overall leaderboard matters for prize money
Rosters:
QB // RB // WR // WR // FLEX // TE
36 NFL Players rostered in each draft (30 FLEX players)
Scoring:
Half-PPR // No bonuses for yardage benchmarks
This is a daily fantasy tournament! Right now the edge is that too many entrants are still treating drafts like season-long teams instead of one-week teams. This article will explore how to think correctly about drafting in this format.
Reviewing Underdog’s Battle Royale Week 1
Here, we take a look at the five highest scoring lineups from Week 1, how they were constructed, what we can learn from them, and the most important concepts to keep in mind when drafting a team.
Five Highest scoring lineups:
Only duplicate happened to be the lineup tied for 1st
Range of 152.68 to 150.18 (2.5 pts difference from 1st to 6th)
Notable Player Exposure:
4/5 with Mahomes + Tyreek
2 brought Chubb back
1 included Kelce double-stack
2/5 Kelce (on the one non-Mahomes/Hill team)
Chubb brought back
5/5 with Mixon
Drafted 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th
2 included Thielen; 1 included Dalvin double-stack
3/5 Hockenson (all non-Kelce)
3rd highest projected TE
Drafted 6th, 6th, 4th
Deebo only true super low-owned player
Information to Note:
The range of “correlated” players was 3 to 5, with all including QB-WR stack and 4 of 5 including a 3-man stack of some kind
Limit the amount of things you need to go right through stacking
80% of the top 5 scores either grabbed Kelce first or drafted TE last
Kelce provides massive edge at weakest position
Value in workhorse RBs, especially those sliding in drafts
Ex: Mixon projected high among RBs, but slid due to concerns about matchup/game script vs MIN despite a wide-held belief he will barely leave field
Remember scoring: Half-ppr with no bonuses means TDs have more importance
Big-play ability & TD-equity more valuable than racking up short catches
Players came from just 5 games (8 teams)
Ex: KC-CLE, MIN-CIN, SF-DET, ARI, SEA
Take strong positions on game environments!
Try to bet on game environments with different players from those games
Ex: Kelce or Hill // Dalvin or Thielen // Lockett or Metcalf
Ownership not as concerning in avoiding dupes compared to single-game tournaments
Way more combinations in this setting (36 players drafted vs 12), making it less necessary to go way off board to win with unique roster
Ex: Using someone like Deebo in W1 can help you win, but draft him because it makes sense within your team/portfolio rather than just due to ownership
Story Each Draft Tells:
33.38
31.6
23
21.6
24
19.7
152.68
Mahomes
Hill
Mixon
Chubb
Lockett
Hock
Highest projected QB, stacks his WR1 next pick
The more points Hill gets, the less Kelce gets
RB projected for workhorse usage in uncertain matchup
Opp RB to add to QB-WR stack
If Chubb is having ground success, likely means KC needs to throw more
WR on team with high total, narrow distribution b/w top guys, history of blow-ups
3rd highest projected TE who likely fell due to matchup concerns
FINAL STORY:
QB-WR-Opp RB stack in high total game // workhorse RB // WR on high-total team with history of blow-up scores // 3rd highest projected TE
33.38
31.6
23.3
23
21.6
19.7
151.98
Mahomes
Hill
Hop
Mixon
Chubb
Hock
Highest projected QB, stacks his WR1 next pick
The more points Hill gets, the less Kelce gets
WR1 in expected high-scoring game
Hopkins ceiling likely means less rushing ceiling for Kyler
RB projected for workhorse usage in uncertain matchup
Opp RB to add to stack
If Chubb having ground success, likely means KC needs to throw more
3rd highest projected TE who likely fell due to matchup concerns
FINAL STORY:
QB-WR-Opp RB stack in high total game // WR1 in expected high-scoring affair (likely negatively affects Kyler’s ceiling, helping Mahomes) // workhorse RB // 3rd highest projected TE
22.6
34.56
23.3
21.6
23
27.4
151.96
Kelce
Kyler
Hop
Chubb
Mixon
Deebo
Highest projected player at his position (TE) by wide margin
Second highest projected QB in expected high-scoring affair, stacks his WR1 next pick
Expecting Kyler-Hop-Kelce to outscore Mahomes-Hill-TE
More Kelce points probably means less Hill points
Opp RB to stack with TE
If Chubb having ground success, likely means KC needs to throw more
RB projected for workhorse usage falling due to uncertain matchup/game environment
WR on team with high total in soft matchup
The more points Deebo scores, the less flow to Kittle & Mostert
FINAL STORY:
TE-Opp RB stack with massive projection drop-off at weak position // QB-WR1 stack in expected high scoring affair that creates strong leverage point when paired with first pick // workhorse RB // WR on team with high total at extremely low ownership that leverages other popular players on his own team
17.4
31.6
33.38
19.7
23
25.7
150.68
Dalvin
Hill
Mahomes
Hock
Mixon
Thielen
2nd highest projected RB in expected favorable game-script
Highest projected WR, stacks his QB next pick
The more points Hill gets, the less Kelce gets
3rd highest projected TE; position falls off quickly
Opp RB projected for workhorse usage to stack with first RB
Both guys expected to stay on field in all gamescripts
Adds WR w/ history of big scores to the RB-RB stack
Betting on high scoring affair with two players on a team with extremely narrow touch distribution and an opposing workhorse RB
FINAL STORY:
RB-WR-Opp RB stack on teams with narrow distributions // QB-WR1 stack in expected high scoring affair that leverages not having Kelce // 3rd-highest projected player at weak position
22.6
31.6
33.38
14
25.7
23
150.18
Kelce
Hill
Mahomes
Metcalf
Thielen
Mixon
Highest projected player at his position (TE) by wide margin
Stacks his teammate, the highest projected WR, betting on narrow distribution in NFL’s best offense with high team total
Stacks the WR & TE’s QB, the highest projected QB
Now has the highest projected players at three positions in a single stack
WR on team with high total, narrow distribution b/w top guys, history of blow-ups
WR on team with high total, narrow distribution b/w top guys, history of blow-ups
Thielen provides leverage on Dalvin & Jefferson rosters (AT lowest owned)
Stacks Opp-RB next pick
Big Mixon game likely means MIN passing more
FINAL STORY:
QB-WR-TE stack on team with narrow distribution & week’s highest total // WR with blow-up potential & high team total // WR-Opp RB stack that leverages other popular players in the game
Every single team you draft tells its own unique story!
For example, when you choose Kamara, you are saying he outscores the others in that range (so Dalvin & Henry for instance) and you then need to build the rest of the roster with that in mind.
Which players later in draft enhance chances of AK scoring higher than others, and/or decrease the chances of the others outscoring him?
AK’s ceiling may correlate with success from opponent (so Davante/Tonyan for example)
Cook & Henry’s ceilings may negatively correlate with success from their teammates (so Thielen/Jefferson or Brown/Julio)
You also need to keep in mind with those early picks who you are missing out on even before you are forced to choose between guys available
Ex: McCaffrey & Kelce are always going to be high picks for good reason, so if you don’t get one of them, you need to tell the story on your roster why your players will outscore them
This is the same thought process as before, but in this case, you aren’t choosing AK over Henry but rather “choosing” AK because CMC is already gone
I.e. If you miss out on Kelce, Hill is the most direct leverage, but you can also go even further by taking Hill AND Waller, as Waller is the most likely to lead the position in scoring if not Kelce
CEH would be another pivot off the top KC guys, as his success leverages the chances your players outscore Kelce/Hill
I.e. If you miss out on CMC, draft your team based on whether your own guy outscores him (maybe a heavy bet on that game environment) or a CMC teammate like DJ Moore has a big day that limits CMC’s ceiling
Manage exposure through a portfolio of drafts that ideally work in concert with each other.
For example, imagine you have rosters 1 & 3 from Week 1:
Mahomes – Hill – Mixon – Chubb – Lockett – Hock
Kelce – Kyler – Hop – Chubb – Mixon – Deebo
What you are betting on in this example:
One:
Take Mahomes, miss out on Kelce, so take his other top pass-catcher and bet on that being the highest scoring stack
Take Kelce, miss out on Mahomes, so take QB you think outscores him, and then his WR1 to bet even further on that game environment
Two
Take Chubb on both, correlating with your two bets on KC passing game (this helps both rosters, just through different players)
Three:
Strong position on Mixon due to him being undervalued in drafts with good chance to outscore guys above him
Four:
Miss on Kelce, wait on TE by taking highest projected TE left w/ last pick
Take Kelce as TE, grab Deebo as a bet on that game environment (Deebo succeeding positively correlates with Hock, which helps roster 1, but you also know it’s still unlikely he outscores Kelce on roster 2)
You are left with teams that:
Leverage Nick Chubb success into positives for the KC passing game, which you have differentiated between the two teams
Bet on the two highest projected QBs in their own stacks
Bet on a high-upside RB you took a stand on later in drafts
Bet on a game environment through Deebo & Hock that can ultimately benefit both rosters
In a perfect world, Lockett & Hopkins would be on opposite rosters here
A Hopkins ceiling game is likely negatively correlated to Kyler’s ceiling (given how much of it can come from rushing success), so having Hopkins with Mahomes would be a further bet on Mahomes outscoring Kyler
Lockett with naked Kyler here means you are betting on him being QB1, likely in large part due to rushing points, and therefore Hopkins’s ceiling is lowered, making way for someone like Lockett to outscore him
Looking at Week 2:
Just some quick bits of information I’ve gathered from several drafts between the $20 Battle Royale and the $5 Battle Royale:
Notable players consistently going either undrafted or in the last few picks:
QB:
Dak // Herbert
Hurts // Lamar
Stafford // Tannehill
RB:
Mixon // Elliott // Carson
Montgomery // Taylor // Edwards-Helaire // Henderson
Sanders // Gaskin // Harris // Hunt
WR:
LAR WRs // CIN WRs // PIT WRs
1-2 of the 3 TB WRs
Robinson // Thielen // Julio // DJ Moore
Cooks // Landry // Mike Williams // Waddle
TE:
Gronk // Higbee // Fant // Cook // Pitts
Thoughts on the aforementioned information:
The main four guys from DAL-LAC are all being taken, but the QBs are being passed on
Matchups are scaring drafters off some high-usage RBs
MIN WRs might be undervalued with Thielen almost never getting drafted, and Jefferson falling to the back half consistently
CHI-CIN tributary of the passing games opening up (see NFL Edge) is going to be essentially unowned
TB distribution uncertainty generally scaring drafters off; AB almost unowned
Due to lack of “juicy” options, almost none of the highest drafted players will have bring-backs from their opponents
CMC & AK only ones being drafted in NOR-CAR
Moore // Callaway
Kelce/Hill/Mahomes only ones drafted in KC-BAL
Lamar // Andrews // CEH
Chubb only one being drafted in CLE-HOU
Hunt // Landry // Cooks
Dalvin/Jefferson/Hopkins/Kyler only ones drafted in MIN-ARI
Thielen
Diggs/Allen only ones drafted in MIA-BUF
Sanders // Beasley // Waddle
Waller/Najee only ones drafted in PIT-LV
Diontae
Keep in mind that, without a salary cap and only 24 WRs/RBs being drafted, you have to draft with elite upside in mind. If you want to put Callaway or Waddle on a roster with CMC or Diggs/Allen, then you are saying that player is one of the top scoring players on the entire slate. There is no “points per dollar” strategy to keep in mind here that you use for certain guys in normal DFS, as you are going to need among the very top scores at every position.
Certain guys, while still preferable in a stack, can still have upside on their own, but you have to keep in mind who those guys are. For example, Thielen benefits from a strong ARI game, but due to MIN’s narrow distribution, can still have immense value on his own in this format while leveraging the success of Cook & Jefferson. Callaway, on the other hand, would be a bet that the game shoots way past its total, likely meaning that CMC is producing on his side and forcing NOR to pass more, opening up the scenario for Callaway to dominate production amidst a bunch of average pass-catchers in NOR. Callaway being one of the top scorers of the week would leverage against 100% owned Kamara, also helping CMC, and would give you one of the most unique rosters on the slate.
