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Underowned Underdog

Week 9

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is currently filled with an inexperienced field of entrants. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

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Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

  • In 18/26 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (13 of 18 were QB-WR)
  • 2022 QBs + teammate in top-five: Joe Burrow (10/10) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Jalen Hurts (4/4) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1)
  • Every 2022 QB to make a top-five roster has scored four-plus touchdowns, except for Allen in Week 4 (four teams, two touchdowns) and Tua in Week 8 (one team, three touchdowns)
  • Of the 130 top-five rosters, 94 have had two RBs (72.3%)
    • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
  • Amount of weeks (of 26) these TEs have appeared in the top-five in at least one lineup (though usually more): Andrews (11) // Kelce (10) // Hockenson (five) // Kittle (five)
Looking at Week 9

Even with ADP shifting over the course of the week, we can get a pretty solid idea of who is going where early in the week, and what players are being left off the board that might provide overlooked winning upside.

Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson

  • There is a big gap between Josh Allen and the rest of the QBs this week. 

QBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:

  • Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has already scored 25 fantasy points twice this year, and is now facing a defense giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. He can be paired with Kirk, but probably makes the most sense with either Etienne or Engram (both RB & TE missing all the big dogs this week).
  • Justin Fields: Fields has 45+ rush yards in six straight, with 230 in the last three games alone. Lamar & Josh Allen combined for 166 yards and a touchdown on the ground vs Miami in Weeks 2 and 3. He’s posted fantasy point totals of 17, 19, 24, and 26 points over the last month, and now faces a defense ranked 25th in overall DVOA (29th against the pass). Fields has been best unstacked, but can be played opposite the Miami skill players, which is a bet on him to outscore Tagovailoa (due to his rushing prowess).
  • Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has scored between 19-31 fantasy points in five full games vs. Detroit with Matt LaFleur as head coach, and now gets a 2022 Lions defense that has already allowed 25+ fantasy points to Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa this season. Allen Lazard has not shown huge fantasy upside in his career and is dealing with an injury, so Rodgers is best stacked with Aaron Jones or Robert Tonyan (which works out nicely considering the state of the RB & TE positions this week).

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