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Underdog Underowned 17.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

  • In 21/34 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (15 of 21 were QB-WR)
  • 2022 QBs in top-5 (stacked/total): Joe Burrow (12/13) // Justin Fields (4/12) // Jalen Hurts (9/12) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (8/9) // Kirk Cousins (4/4) // Justin Herbert (2/3) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (2/2) // Kyler Murray (1/1) // Mike White (1/1) // Trevor Lawrence (1/1) // Geno Smith (0/1) // Dak Prescott (1/1)
  • Of the 80 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 54 have scored four-plus touchdowns, and most of the rest did heavy scoring on the ground
  • Of the 170 top-five rosters, 118 have had two RBs (69.4%)
    • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
  • Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 12-of-26 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 12-of-24 weeks he has been on the slate
  • In 2022, 12-of-16 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Week 16 Top-Five Rosters: Score // Roster // ADP

Looking at Week 17
Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford

  • Despite the largest slate of games since early season, the QBs absent from the slate have left the position pretty weak overall
  • Mahomes and Goff carry the highest team totals on the slate by a wide margin, with Goff vs Fields projecting to be a more competitive scoring environment than Mahomes-Russ
    • At the time of this writing, ADPs: Mahomes (6), Fields (9), Goff (30)
  • Aaron Rodgers vs Kirk Cousins scores since 2020: (43-34) / (28-22) / (31-34) / (7-23)
    • Rodgers hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points all year, but has third highest team total on slate
    • Cousins has six scores of 23+ fantasy points, including four of the last five games
  • Deshaun Watson has faced a tough slate of defenses in his return, but Washington has allowed productive rushing days to QBs. Wentz starts have been higher scoring environments than Heinicke’s, and he has clear stackable players on his own team and on the other side
  • Teddy Bridgewater: Productive in his one start, two stackable weapons slipping due to New England defense/Tua concerns, both teams extremely motivated means both offenses need to leave it all on the table
Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, JK Dobbins, Devin Singletary, Jonathan Taylor

RBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:

  • Isiah Pacheco: “KC is implied for 29 points at home as a 10+ point favorite” Deja Vu from a week ago, playing a defense that appears to have given up after getting obliterated by Cam Akers on the ground. Pacheco has between 13-22 rush attempts in each of the last seven games. With his scoring almost assuredly going to come on the ground, he is one way to get leverage off Mahomes.
  • Brian Robinson: Cleveland has really struggled to defend the run; Gibson has been missing practice; Robinson has 4 games of 20+ carries; Washington needs to win to stay alive
  • Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier has taken over the backfield with 35 carries last two weeks, including 4/43 through the air last week; Arizona’s has been more susceptible to RBs and is certainly an easier matchup than Atlantas previous two opponents
  • Detroit RBs: Certainly it could play out that both RBs cannibalize each other, but both Buffalo RBs just had strong games in this same matchup (Cook on winning GL stand roster), and Detroit is projected for the second highest total behind Kansas city

Leonard Fournette: Still appears to be the lead man when healthy after seeing 30 touches last week. CAR has allowed strong RB success and Fournette can get usage from ahead or behind; teams essentially playing for the Division

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Ceedee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Christian Watson

WRs with upside outside the top-14 drafted:

  • Amari Cooper: Fresh off best game with Watson in frigid conditions and with a missed easy touchdown opportunity; Washington defense lends opponent to attacking aerially
  • Dotson/Samuel: Both had success with Wentz early in season; Gibson absence would potentially lead to more short area work for Samuel; Washington needs to win
  • Zay Jones: See NFL edge about Jones success vs Houston’s preferred zone coverage
  • Drake London: Massive target share with Ridder and no Pitts; no Byron Murphy on the other side
  • Elijah Moore: Better matchup in slot vs Seattle; 10 tg in last Mike White game
Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, Zach Ertz, Kyle Pitts

  • With more options at RB and WR this week, Kelce is a priority again for me
  • As long as Deebo remains out, Kittle’s blowup potential is elevated
    • I’ve even taken both Kelce and Kittle in a draft considering their respective ceilings; while unlikely, we did just witness an example last week of both Kittle & Hock scoring 27+ fantasy points each
  • Quick notes on some TEs past top trio:
    • Evan Engram: On a roll against a tougher WR defense
    • Cole Kmet: The most reliable target left for Fields
    • Taysom Hill: Usage has been up of late and weather still favors the ground game; can score variety of ways

Logan Thomas: Heavily targeted by Wentz last week

Underowned Combos:
  • Lawrence + Etienne / Zay
  • Goff + 2
  • Rodgers + Lazard / RBs
  • Teddy + Hill/Waddle
  • Watson + Cooper / DPJ
  • Cousins + 2
  • Kelce + Kittle

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!