Underdog Underowned 15.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

• This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.
• In 19/32 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (14 of 19 were QB-WR); just three QB-teammate stacks per week in four of the last five weeks
• 2022 QBs in top-five (stacked/total): Joe Burrow (12/13) // Justin Fields (4/12) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Jalen Hurts (8/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/6) // Justin Herbert (2/3) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (2/2) // Kyler Murray (1/1) // Mike White (1/1) // Trevor Lawrence (1/1) // Geno Smith (0/1)
• Of the 70 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 54 have scored four-plus touchdowns
  • Allen, Fields, Hurts all had 70+ yards and a score on the ground in their games without four touchdowns
• Of the 150 top-five rosters, 115 have had two RBs (71.8%)
  • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
• Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 12-of-24 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 12-of-22 weeks he has been on the slate
• In 2022, 11-of-14 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Week 13 Top-Five Rosters: Score // Roster // ADP

Looking at Week 14

Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford

• With Hurts in such a positive matchup, Allen gone, and Mahomes in a matchup/game that so strongly favors the running game, Philadelphia’s offense should be accounted for
• If I’m not getting Hurts, I need someone capable of matching a strong output:
  • Burrow and Herbert each have a RB and two WRs that can be stacked
  • Mahomes sometimes available with Kelce
  • Fields could be stacked with Kmet, but probably better just with Philadelphia pieces
• Or a bet against Hurts with a later QB and with Miles Sanders on the roster
• However, of note: Hurts has scored 17, 30 and 30 fantasy points in Sanders’s three blowup games, making an interesting combo that never gets owned (except by last week’s winner!) and also clearly not always leverage off the other

QBs with upside outside the top-fivve drafted:

• Mike White: White had scores of 25 and 19.5 fantasy points against easier defenses before playing Buffalo through a rib injury. Detroit has been one of the tougher run matchups over the last half of the season, but they have still given up all kinds of passing production. Playing White carries an expectation of about 300 yards and three to four touchdowns, so he makes the most sense to stack with Garrett Wilson, and/or Eli Moore/Zonovan Knight/Tyler Conklin.

Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Jeff Wilson

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson

Positive Notes:

• A.J. Brown: Three biggest games have all come in Philadelphia blowouts in which Philadelphia has scored 35+ points; Chicago recent points allowed: 28, 31, 27, 31, 35, 49; biggest concern is volume since Philadelphia also has an easy matchup on ground and passing offense has frequently been unnecessary for them in the second half
• Garrett Wilson: Detroit has allowed the third most WR fantasy points per game; three monster games with Flacco or White
• Eli Moore: Same bad Detroit defense; Corey Davis likely out; production much higher without Wilson; led team in targets last week (10); undrafted
• Mike Williams: Tennessee has allowed the most fantasy points to WRs; Williams ceiling higher than Keenan, much better matchup than Ekeler
• Christian Kirk: Dallas defense has allowed several strong WR games; Dallas frequently puts up points, requiring opponent to keep up; Engram currently the third drafted TE, but Kirk has been the most consistent Jacksonville producer all year

Negative Notes:

• Davante Adams: Offense becoming less concentrated with potential returns of Waller and Renfrow; New England above-average vs. WRs and stronger against touchdowns overall
• Ceedee Lamb: With Dallas focused on running the ball, Lamb has topped 20 fantasy points just once all year. Needs a high scoring affair to pop
• Keenan Allen: Hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points since Week 11 of 2020, basically needs a two touchdown game; even in good matchups, has been beneficial to fade
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: New York has allowed third fewest WR fantasy points; Goff still struggles with pressure and strong defenses; Jets haven’t allowed a big WR game since the opening month; all Detroit skill players healthy means a hit to volume; still massive ceiling to consider, but downgrade to environment (21.5 total in 44.5 game total)

Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Mark Andrews, George Kittle, TJ Hockenson, David Njoku, Dawson Knox, Robert Tonyan, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, Kyle Pitts

• Kelce remains the most valuable player in the format, going #1 more frequently this week with Jefferson off the slate; basically Kelce and Hurts at the top
• If Kelce disappoints, likely a strong game from another Chief; McKinnon popped through the air last week, but the matchup on ground sets up best for Pacheco this week
• Quick notes on some TEs past Kelce:
  • Dalton Schultz: Dallas is implied for 26 points, good matchup vs Jacksonville
  • Taysom Hill: No Mark Ingram and TEs both Q, strong history vs Atlanta
  • Greg Dulcich: No Sutton; TE feast spot vs Arizona
  • Pat Freiermuth: seven games of seven-plus targets, concentrated offense
  • Dallas Goedert: If fully healthy, strong ceiling against the porous Chicago defense
  • Darren Waller: If fully healthy, could see advantage with New England emphasis on Adams

Underowned Combos:

• Burrow + 2
• Hurts + Sanders
• White + Wilson + (Moore / Conklin)
• Dak + Schultz + Kirk
• Herbert + 2 + (Henry)
• Kamara + Olave

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!