Underdog Underowned 14.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

• In 19-of-31 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (14-of-19 were QB-WR)
• 2022 QBs in top-five (stacked/total): Joe Burrow (12/13) // Justin Fields (4/12) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Jalen Hurts (7/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Justin Herbert (2/3) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1) // Kyler Murray (1/1) // Mike White (1/1)
• Of the 65 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 53 have scored four-plus touchdowns
  • Allen and Fields had 70/1 and 85/1 on the ground in their games without four touchdowns
• Of the 150 top-five rosters, 111 have had two RBs (71.6%)
  • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
• Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 12-of-23 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 12-of-21 weeks he has been on the slate
• In 2022, 11-of-13 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Week 13 Top-Five Rosters: Score // Roster // ADP

Looking at Week 14

Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford

QBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:

• Kirk Cousins: Detroit has allowed high QB fantasy production all year. Cousins has averaged 300 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games vs Campbell’s Lions. This game carries the highest total on the slate. He is easily stacked with Jefferson or Hockenson.
• Deshaun Watson: For many of the same reasons as last week, Watson is interesting at miniscule ownership. Relatively high game total, easily stackable, leverage off Chubb, high ceiling.

Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Conner

RBs with Goal-Line Work, High Touch Expectation, Pass Game Usage, Strong Matchup:

• Joe Mixon (CLE)

RBs with Goal-Line Work, High Touch Expectation, Strong Matchup:

• Derrick Henry (JAX) // Dalvin Cook (DET) // Nick Chubb (CIN) // D’Onta Foreman (SEA)

RBs with Goal-Line Work, High Touch Expectation, Pass Game Usage:

• Christian McCaffrey (TB) // Saquon Barkley (PHI)

RBs with Goal-Line Work, Pass Game Usage, Strong Matchup:

• D’Andre Swift (MIN) // Ezekiel Elliott (HOU)

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

• With the amount of elite WRs and RBs off the slate, there is some potential for double stacks to come in to play this week
  • Two of Justin Jefferson + Dalvin Cook + T.J. Hockenson at Detroit
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown + D’Andre Swift vs. Minnesota
  • Two of Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins + Joe Mixon vs. Cleveland
  • DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett vs. Carolina
  • A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith + Miles Sanders atNew York Giants

Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts

• Kelce remains the most valuable player in the format, and Andrews has had significant value himself. That being said, both have shown some struggles with their current matchup 
• Quick notes on TEs past the top duo:
  • T.J. Hockenson: Six-plus targets in every game with Vikings; weak pass defense
  • Dalton Schultz: Dallas is implied for 31 points
  • Pat Freiermuth: Seven games of seven-plus targets; best matchup of the Steelers players
  • George Kittle: Splash play ability; matchup tilts offenses to the air
  • Chig Okonkwo: Role growing; strong matchup; Burks out

Underowned Combos:

• Burrow + Mixon + (Cooper / DPJ / Njoku)
• Burrow + 2
• Watson + Cooper / Njoku + (Mixon / Chase / Higgins)
• Cousins + Jefferson / Hockenson + (St. Brown / Swift)
• Goff + Swift + St. Brown + Jefferson / Cook

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!