Underdog Underowned 13.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

• In 19/30 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (14 of 19 were QB-WR)
• 2022 QBs + teammate in top-five: Joe Burrow (12/13) // Justin Fields (4/12) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Jalen Hurts (4/4) // Justin Herbert (2/3) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1) // Kyler Murray (1/1) // Mike White (1/1)
• Of the 60 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 48 have scored four-plus touchdowns
  • Allen and Fields had 70/1 and 85/1 on the ground in their games without four touchdowns
• Of the 150 top-five rosters, 111 have had two RBs (74%)
  • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
• Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 12-of-22 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 12-of-20 weeks he has been on the slate
• In 2022, 10-of-12 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Week 12 Top-Five Rosters: Score // Roster // ADP

Looking at Week 13

Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady

QBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:

• Deshaun Watson: Hasn’t played a game in two years, but is one of the highest scoring fantasy QBs ever on a per game basis. While Houston hasn’t allowed many QB fantasy points per game, it has much more to do with getting obliterated on the ground than actually being a strong pass defense. As expected, Chubb has shot up the board over the course of the week, so Watson is potential leverage off Chubb’s ownership, especially if it comes with an Amari Cooper or David Njoku stack (DPJ more value in 12-man drafts).
• Trevor Lawrence: Detroit has bled fantasy points to QBs all season, and Lawrence is coming off one of his best games as a pro against a much tougher defense. Detroit has allowed a lot of production to QBs on the ground, and Lawrence has flashed some rushing ability. Like DPJ, Zay Jones has more value in 12-man drafts, but Lawrence can surely be stacked with Kirk or Etienne (QB-RB is still an under-owned stack in general).
• Geno Smith: Rams have been losing players everywhere, including now the best defensive player in the NFL in Aaron Donald. Smith has 19+ fantasy points in seven of 11 games, and has clear stackable teammates.
• Justin Fields: Obvious mention here, as it’s clearly dependent on health. Carries slate-breaking upside when playing, especially against a Green Bay defense that has been extremely weak defending the run.

Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, , Leonard Fournette, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary, James Conner

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman, D.J. Moore

• Sometimes a decision point can come down to Tyreek Hill or Ja’Marr Chase, so taking the secondary guy opposite first decision (Jaylen Waddle or Tee Higgins) is an easy way to increase your bet on one of Hill or Chase over the other
• Drafting Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams both possibly mean no Kelce or Andrews
• With so many of the normal top ADP WRs off the slate, there are a lot of teammate pairs in the drafted range that will likely produce one big score or two “okay” scores, determining how the slate unfolds
• WRs with a teammate who frequently goes undrafted, and who carries legitimate upside
  • DK Metcalf → Tyler Lockett :: Los Angeles dealing with injuries, could see less Ramsey
  • A.J. Brown → Devonta Smith :: Tennessee allowing strong WR fantasy production, has actually outproduced Brown in three straight games
  • Keenan Allen → Josh Palmer :: Mike Williams still out, Las Vegas pass defense weak
  • Deebo Samuel → Brandon Aiyuk :: Deebo health concerns, Miami been far weaker vs the pass, Jimmy G’s most consistent, favorite target
  • Justin Jefferson → Adam Thielen :: If JJ is contained by Gardner, Thielen a beneficiary; T.J. Hockenson also 100% owned
  • Amari Cooper → Donovan Peoples-Jones :: Watson comes with a lot of uncertainty that people may be afraid to take a stand on

Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Dalton Schultz, Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts

• Kelce remains the most valuable player in the format
• Stronger crop of guys after the top trio (Kelce, Andrews, George Kittle) this week:
  • T.J. Hockenson: 8.5 targets per game with Minnesota, Gardner on JJ
  • Pat Freiermuth: Seven games of seven or more targets, weak pass defense
  • Hayden Hurst: Potential high scoring environment, three teammates 100% owned
  • Gerald Everett: Mike-Will still out, weak pass defense
  • Cole Kmet: Fields maybe returns, Mooney out for season

Underowned Combos:

• Burrow + Mixon + (Kelce)
• Hurts + Smith + (Henry)
• Watson + Cooper / Njoku + (Pierce)
• Lawrence + Etienne / Kirk + (St. Brown)
• Fields + Kmet + (A Jones)
• Geno + Metcalf / Lockett / Walker

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!