Underdog Underowned 12.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

• In 18-of-29 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (13-of-18 were QB-WR)
• 2022 QBs + teammate in top-five: Joe Burrow (12/13) // Justin Fields (4/12) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Jalen Hurts (4/4) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1)
• Of the 55 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 48 have scored four-plus touchdowns
  • Allen and Fields had 70/1 and 85/1 on the ground in the games without four touchdowns
• Of the 145 top-five rosters, 106 have had two RBs (73%)
  • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
• Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 12-of-21 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 11-of-19 weeks he has been on the slate
• In 2022, nine of 11 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Week 11 Top-Five Rosters: Score // Roster // ADP

Looking at Week 12

Quarterbacks:

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Allen, Hurts, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins

There are some QBs with upside outside the top six (Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota), but none are truly necessary bets with QBs (matchups) on the board of Patrick Mahomes (LAR), Tua (HOU), Lamar (BAL), Burrow (TEN), Justin Herbert (ARI) and Geno Smith (LV). Murray’s high ceiling makes him the only one I’ll likely consider if the draft falls that way.

Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary, Jamaal Williams, Miles Sanders, Najee Harris

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ceedee Lamb, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Gabriel Davis, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens

• Drafting Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams both possibly means no Kelce or Andrews
• With so many of the normal top ADP WRs off the slate, there are a lot of teammate pairs in the drafted range that will likely produce one big score or two “okay” scores, determining how the slate unfolds
  • Hill + Jaylen Waddle // Tee Higgins + Ja’Marr Chase // Mike Evans + Chris Godwin // DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett // Deebo Samuel + Brandon Aiyuk // Keenan Allen + Josh Palmer // Amari Cooper + Donovan Peoples-Jones

Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert, Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts

• Gets thin extremely quick this week after the Kelce, Andrews, Kittle trio
• Gerald Everett with Arizona on deck, and Gesicki vs Houston as potential leverage off Miami’s top trio are the most interesting for me to consider if missing the top guys 

Strategy based on first picks:

If Travis Kelce:

• Mahomes extremely unlikely to be able to stack
• Downgrade Lamar: bet on Kelce over Andrews
• Upgrade Waddle and Wilson: bet on Kelce over Hill
  • This downgrades Tua slightly for me as well if I’m betting against his most likely path (Hill ceiling) to a ceiling game
• Keep eye on available stacks; QB likely needs to keep pace with big Mahomes game
  • Tua and Waddle are still a possible option if Waddle slips a bit, and that would really leverage Hill in a Kelce roster’s favor
  • Higgins/Chase with Burrow
  • DeAndre Hopkins with Kyler
  • Lockett/Metcalf are later possibilities with Geno
  • Keenan/Palmer are later possibilities with Herbert
• Odds are against getting any of Henry, Ekeler, McCaffrey
  • Treylon Burks should only be in consideration with a Cincinnati stack
  • Upgrade Allen, Palmer and Everett; can even potentially pair with Hopkins
  • Upgrade Aiyuk and Deebo: also a bet on Kelce over George Kittle

If Tyreek Hill:

• Upgrade Andrews; bet on Hill over Kelce
• Getting Andrews or Kelce will be tough on a Hill roster, so upgrade Kittle and think about ways Andrews and Kelce won’t be necessary for a top roster
  • Downgrade Lamar; Downgrade Aiyuk and Deebo (if taking Kittle)
  • Upgrade Juju Smith-Schuster, Isaiah Pacheco
• Upgrade Tua; not necessary to stack, but betting on clearest path to a Tua ceiling game with Hill here
• Upgrade Jacobs and Foster Moreau; bet on Hill over Davante Adams
• Downgrade Waddle; double-stack would need Tua and probably a bring back (Brandin Cooks) to even make sense in this format
• Odds are against getting any of Henry, Ekeler, McCaffrey
  • Treylon Burks should only be in consideration with a CIN stack
  • Upgrade LAC passing stacks (Herbert / Allen / Palmer / Everett)
  • Kittle still significant upgrade; Aiyuk and Deebo even bigger upgrade if no Kittle too

If Patrick Mahomes:

• Taking Mahomes knowing Kelce isn’t stackable means you need someone to either keep pace with a good Kelce game (so upgrade Andrews), or upgrade a KC pass catcher
  • KC pass-catcher isn’t required due to Mahomes ability to spread ball around so none of the ancillary guys are necessary, but should at least be considered
  • Juju has 20 and 22 point games, Mecole Hardman has 26 and 17 point games, Kadarius Toney has one 17 point game
• If Mahomes is on the winning roster despite also a big Kelce game, it means Mahomes significantly outpaced all the other QBs and your rostered TE did just enough
  • This would also upgrade the RBs for those QBs: Wilson, Ekeler, Joe Mixon (Q), Walker, Conner
• With no Hill, Tua, or Kelce, this makes MIA order of preference: Wilson – Waddle – Gesicki
• Upgrade Kittle due to odds against getting Kelce, Andrews, and CMC

Underowned Combos:

• Tua + Wilson / Gesicki
• Burrow + Higgins / Chase + Henry / Burks
• Mahomes + Juju
• Geno + Lockett / Metcalf + Moreau

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!