Underdog Underowned 11.22

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.

The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!

Brief Review of Previous Data

This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.

• In 18/28 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-5 rosters (13 of 18 were QB-WR)
• 2022 QBs + teammate in top-five: Joe Burrow (10/10) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) //  Justin Fields (3/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Jalen Hurts (4/4) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1)
• Of the 50 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 45 have scored at least four touchdowns
  • Exceptions: Allen in Week 4 (four teams, two touchdowns) and Tua in Week 8 (one team, three touchdowns)
• Of the 140 top-five rosters, 101 have had two RBs (72.1%)
  • This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
• Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 11-of-20 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 11-of-19 weeks he has been on the slate
• In 2022, eight of 10 weeks have had a single WR or RB make all five top-five rosters

Looking at Week 11

Even with ADP shifting over the course of the week, we can get a pretty solid idea of who is going where early in the week, and what players are being left off the board that might provide overlooked winning upside. Remember, the players discussed with upside are all potential 6th round picks, meaning they aren’t meant to be the best plays or to even be played together, but rather serve as ways to create unique combinations with the 100% owned players.

Notable QBs missing from this slate: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence

• Top-six QBs by ADP: Justin Fields (@ATL) // Josh Allen (CLE) // Jalen Hurts (@IND) // Lamar Jackson (CAR) // Joe Burrow (@PIT) // Dak Prescott (@MIN)

quarterbacks:

QBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:

• Daniel Jones: Jones is set to face the NFL’s worst defense in 2022, with Detroit allowing the most fantasy points per game to QBs (23.7). Detroit has yielded rushing production to QBs of 90/1 (Hurts), 49/1 (Smith), 40 (Rodgers), and 147/2 (Fields). Jones has 20+ rush yards in every game, including games of 68/2, 79, and 107/1. With Jones’ pass catchers being too thin for this format, he is best played either naked or with Saquon, essentially saying all the Giants touchdowns go through the two of them.
• Marcus Mariota: Since shipping away two of their best defensive players, Chicago has allowed point totals of 49, 35, 32. Atlanta has scored 26+ points in five games this year. Chicago has allowed rushing production to QBs of 54 (Lance), 98/2 (NYG QBs), and 34/1 (Dak). Mariota has five games between 43-72 rush yards, and multiple games of 24 fantasy points. As noted last week about Goff, if this game environment performs as needed, Fields is a massive favorite to outscore Mariota. But if Mariota can stay within his range, a different roster can be built with him as your last pick than with Fields typically being your first pick.

Running Backs:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, James Conner

• Top-10 RBs by ADP: Saquon Barkley (DET) // Joe Mixon (@PIT) // Jonathan Taylor (PHI) // Nick Chubb (@BUF) // Dalvin Cook (DAL) // Alvin Kamara (LAR) // Rhamondre Stevenson (NYJ) // Josh Jacobs (@DEN) // Dameon Pierce (WAS) // Tony Pollard (@MIN)
• With so many top RBs not here, and several others in questionable spots, the position definitely has room for an undrafted guy to sneak in this week. And at the very least, these guys will certainly have value in the 12-roster format of the GoalLine Stand Contest.

RBs with upside outside the top-10 drafted:

• Cordarrelle Patterson: Chicago is allowing the 4th most RB fantasy points per game behind the fifth most RB rush yards per game and second most RB touchdowns (14). In 2022, Patterson’s best games have come with touch totals of 27, 18 and 14, with fantasy scores in those games of 21.1, 21.8, & 17.8. ATL has the second highest team total on the slate as a home favorite.
• David Montgomery: Montgomery has nine games of 20+ fantasy points in the last 2.5 seasons, he has 14-17 rush attempts in six-of-eight full games, and now Khalil Herbert was just placed on IR. Atlanta is allowing the ninth most RB fantasy points per game, with strong games allowed to Chubb, Fournette, Mixon, Foreman (x2) and Ekeler. Montgomery is direct leverage off the No. 1 drafted QB of the week, Justin Fields.
• Brian Robinson: Houston has allowed the most RB fantasy points per game by a wide margin behind a whopping 156 rush yards per game allowed to RBs. Since returning from IR, Robinson has out-carried Gibson 95 attempts to 50. He has three games of 17+ attempts, including last week’s 26 attempts in a win vs. Philadelphia. Robinson provides leverage off the No. 8 drafted WR of the week, Terry McLaurin.

Wide Receivers:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Deandre Hopkins, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, Juju Smith-Schuster

• Top-14 WRs by ADP: Jefferson // Diggs // Lamb // Adams // AJ Brown // Higgins // St. Brown // McLaurin // Davis // Boyd // Sutton // D Smith // Olave // Cooper
• WR is extremely lacking for quality depth this slate

WRs with upside outside the top-14 drafted:

• Curtis Samuel: Houston has allowed the league’s most production on the ground, making Samuel interesting for some similar reasons to Brian Robinson. Samuel has four games of four-plus attempts and five games of 70+ total yds. With McLaurin trending to be 100% owned, and Robinson probably the next Washington player some will look to, Samuel offers leverage off both as someone who could realistically get into the endzone twice for Washington.
• Darnell Mooney: Let’s try this again this week. Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs and the most completed air yds. This game carries the highest total of the slate. Mooney has averaged 62.4 reception yards per game on 170.3 pass yards per game (37%) from Fields since Week 4. First Rd Fields will most commonly be taken naked or with Cole Kmet, offering leverage in a stack with Mooney. Playing Mooney sans Fields is a way of saying that Fields had more passing production than rushing, lending the possibility for another QB to outscore him despite a strong day from his top pass catcher. 
• Donovan Peoples-Jones: While Amari Cooper continues to be a disappearing act on the road or in shadow matchups, Peoples-Jones has quietly produced 70+ yds in five of the last six games. DPJ has yet to score a touchdown this year, and due to injuries Buffalo has taken a major step back this season in its defense vs WRs. With the game being moved out of the snowstorm, the game total is only likely to rise. DPJ provides leverage off No. 4 RB Nick Chubb, and can even be correlated with Buffalo players Allen and Diggs. 

Tight Ends:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki, Gerald Everett 

• Mark Andrews health a big factor, as he’s at huge advantage at the position this week given the guys available

TEs to consider:

• TJ Hockenson vs DAL: 19 targets in two games with Minnesota
• Dalton Schultz @ MIN: Six targets per game and 60 yards per game with Prescott
• Kyle Pitts vs CHI: 24 targets in last three games; second highest team total on slate
• Pat Freiermuth vs CIN: Seven or more targets in six of eight games
• Greg Dulcich vs LV: No Jeudy, bad pass defense, bad TE defense, explosive

Underowned Combos:

• Fields + Mooney + (CPatt / Pitts / London)
• Mariota + Montgomery + (Pitts / London)
• Lamar + Andrews + Moore / Foreman
• D Jones + Saquon + (St. Brown)
• Wilson + Sutton + (Jacobs / Adams / Moreau)
• Dak + Gallup + Jefferson
• Allen + Peoples-Jones + (Diggs / Davis)
• Burrow + Higgins + Diontae / Pickens

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!