The NFL is back, and I will once again break down all the Sunday Main Slate of games. I will discuss the games a bit differently than I have in the past until the season gets going. I will review all the games in week 1 but try to taper down to the top 5-7 fantasy games of the week as the season progresses. You can read all my DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel every Saturday here at DrRoto.com.
RB Chuba Hubbard must get involved early as the Panthers face a Saint defense that is better vs. the pass than the run. Last season, they gave up over 4 yards per carry, and their defensive line is aging. The Panthers added two solid guards this off-season and could push the Saint’s aging front and establish the run game. Hubbard has an outside chance at a 100-yard game, but 60 -70 yards are more likely. He should catch a few passes for a few more points and could get close to 20 fantasy points with a TD. I am fading the entire passing game as I don’t know what to expect vs. this Saint’s solid pass defense. Saint defensive back Marshon Lattimore has been limited in practice. If he is ruled out, I am more interested in the newly acquired Diontae Johnson; otherwise, we should wait and see. We should be watching to see how that offensive line pass protects and how accurate QB Bryce Young is. We should also be looking to see the receivers’ roles, as it is a congested room. Is WR Jonathan Mingo or WR Terrace Marshall Jr. receiving playing time? Does WR Adam Thielen continue to play a prominent role? Where does WR Xavier Legette fit in?
RB Alvin Kamara could have a huge game against a Carolina defense that hasn’t been good against the run. Kamara is also used so much in the passing game that he is always a threat for a monster game. We hope he reaches the end zone. WR Chris Olave is expected to take the next step at becoming a premier wide receiver. He may have to wait a week, as he should get matched up vs. stud CB Jaycee Horn. Last season, Olave averaged 13.7 fantasy points in the two games that he played Carolina, which is decent in seasonal fantasy leagues but won’t get the job done in DFS. WR Rashid Shaheedis a big play target and should have several deep balls thrown to him. The Carolina safeties aren’t very good, and I can see Shaheed getting behind Xavier Woods for a long touchdown, making him a possible sleeper. Other areas that I’m watching is to see is if the offense improves in Derek Carr’s second season. This offense is intact from last season and should score 20-plus points every week. I am also watching to see how they use their tight ends. Juwan Johnson is healthy, and of course, they have Taysom Hill, who takes away touchdowns from the players you need.
WR George Pickens jumps into the role as the clear-cut go-to receiver. It is his time to shine, and now he has QB Russell Wilson throwing him the football. He may see a lot of CB A.J. Terrell, but his size, athleticism, and ability to make sensational catches make him matchup-proof. I’m looking for a 7-catch day here for 80-plus yards. A TD, and he is over 20 points at a price that doesn’t break the bank.
The Steelers also figure to use their above-average offensive line to run the ball down their opponent’s throat. RB Najee Harris should see more touches than fellow RB Jaylen Warren, and that’s why I give him the edge. I think a realistic expectation is 60 rushing yards with a couple of catches, but I think he reaches the endzone, giving him a 15-point day. WR Van Jefferson is my Steeler sleeper as the Falcons are starting CB Mike Hughes, and I think Jefferson can beat him on the outside. His price point is extremely low, and he will have about 2% ownership. If he can get 4 of 5 catches with a long TD, then he is going to make some winning lineups. I want to see how newly acquired QB Russell Wilson leads this team. I know a lot has been said about how poorly the offense has looked in camp/preseason, but they have had a couple of weeks of practice since then. Does he have command of the offense? Can he find open receivers down the field? Will he move the chains and make the passing game relevant again?
RB Bijan Robinson has a tough matchup here vs. a very good Steeler defense, but he should see plenty of volume. Volume is king, and don’t be surprised if he catches 7 or 8 balls vs. a quick Steeler pass rush. Another reason why I like Bijan is that he can score from anywhere on the field. He is a ticking 10-plus-point play on any snap, and there are only a handful of backs who can say that. As for the passing game,
I am fading the entire passing offense. I know many are looking for Cousins to solve all their passing woes, but this may not be the week. The Steelers have a solid secondary and an unreal pass rush. They will be coming after Cousins all game and could turn it over a time or two. I want to see how Cousins looks back there. Is he slow in his drop-back? Will he stand like a statue? That Steeler rush will try to be all over him. I also want to see how much better WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts look compared to last year. Does he take shots with WR Darnell Mooney? I also want to see how many touches RB Tyler Allgeier receives. How much will he cut into Robinson’s workload?
I have a feeling that the Cardinals could be in for a shootout here. QB Kyler Murray could throw the ball a ton, and his running ability can extend plays and get his receivers open. The Bills have strong corners but are missing their best cover linebacker, and that’s where TE Trey McBride comes in. I think he can find some soft spots down the middle of the field, but his size makes it difficult for the defense to defend him on contested balls. RB James Connor is part of the two-man backfield, but when healthy, he has been one of the best value backs. He averaged 25.6 points over his last five games last season, and he won’t relinquish his starting spot to rookie Trey Benson without a fight. WR Michael Wilson is my Cardinal sleeper, as everyone has forgotten about him. Remember, he was a third-round pick a year ago, and they like him. He is going to be on the field, and he is one of those receivers who can make a big play once Murray breaks the pocket. Plus, he has a price point that he can easily 5X. I love Marvin Harrison Jr. as a player, but I am fading him in DFS. I could be dead wrong here, but Harrison has an expensive price point for his rookie debut. Plus, as mentioned, the Bills have strong corners, and they may pay extra attention to him. I’ll be watching to see how Harrison Jr. adjusts early. Do they try to bump him at the line of scrimmage? Do they give him special attention, aka double coverage? I also want to see want to see the usage of RB Trey Benson. How many snaps will he get? Will he cut into Connor’s volume significantly? He has been banged up at times, and I think they may ease him to start and increase his workload as the season progresses.
QB Josh Allen lost his top two receivers from a season ago, but that may make him even better. He, at the very least, doesn’t have the pressure of dealing with WR Stefon Diggs. Diggs was such an on-field cancer, but now his departure can make Allen more comfortable as he doesn’t have to deal with those head battles. Now, he has two new receivers to go along with WR Khalil Shakir and an up-and-coming tight end. Plus, Allen is a very good running QB and can rush for 50 plus yards and a TD. He could be the slate-breaking QB, as the Bills can score 30-plus points in what could be a very high-scoring game. TE Dalton Kincaid had 81 receptions a season ago and should see a bump this season. He has a solid floor of 5 catches with a ceiling close to double digits. A touchdown would make him a solid DFS play. As for the receivers, I think we all want to see what this new-look passing offense has to offer. As I mentioned, I think they can even be better as they all have their special abilities. All can be a big factor in this game, and predicting who will be on top is impossible. Shakir has familiarity with Allen and the offense. Rookie WR Keon Coleman is athletic and wins contested catch battles that should be beneficial in the red zone. Free agent signing WR Curtis Samuel is good at intermediate routes but excels with quick passes. He can take a 3-yard pass and turn into 20 yards quickly. This is the best team and quarterback he has played for, so he could have his best season. A Bills stack is affordable and could be the milli-maker winner. The running game should not be overlooked, as RB James Cook could have a huge game on his way to 100 yards rushing and a TD. The Cardinal defense gave up 4.7 YPC last season. I hope rookie RB Ray Davis doesn’t take away goal-line opportunities as many fantasy analysts fear.
The Patriot offense must establish the run with RB Rhamondre Stevenson if they want to have a chance in this one. The Bengals gave up 4.7 YPC and appear to be weak up the middle defensively. He can catch passes, and an anytime TD would give solid value at low ownership. Plus, a solid running game could open the pass vs. a weak Bengal defense. The passing game is expected to struggle with QB Jacoby Brissett this season, but I do think he has receivers to work with. In fact, I think the trio of Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Tyquan Thornton are underrated, and I would not be surprised if one stood out here against a weak Bengal defense. Douglas has been effective in the past and would be my top option. If Brissett is even serviceable, I could see him making six plus grabs. Polk is an exciting rookie but will be fighting for snaps with WR K.J. Osborn to start the season. TE Hunter Henry could be sneaky as the Bengals were atrocious covering the tight end last season and may be again this year.
The Bengals have been dealing with the Ja’Marr Chase holdout, but he is back and ready to go. Will he just step right in and be the player we are accustomed to seeing? I want to fade QB Joe Burrow and Chase in DFS, but I realize that could be a big mistake. But Burrow doesn’t give you much for rushing yardage, which means he is going to need 300 yards and three touchdowns for just 24 points. That is going to be tough to do against a solid Patriot defense. WR Tee Higgins is limited in practice, but the reports I am reading show that he is good to go. If he practices in full, then I have some interest in DFS. The player I am most interested in, though, is WR Andrei Iosivas, who is at min-price. He showed flashes last season and has glowing camp reports where he has been “turning heads.” He is slated as the third receiver and should see plenty of action. The running game is a two-headed battle with RB Zack Moss and RB Chase Brown, who are figured to split carries. Moss had a solid season when he was on the field for the Colts last year, and Brown is extremely explosive.
Both are solid at catching passes, and we should note to see if one is on the field more than the other on third down to make a better decision on who to play in week 2. Because of the uncertainty, I think we can find backs at their price points who will get more volume. I almost forgot to mention that TE Mike Gesicki will be facing his old team as he was left for dead in New England. He could revitalize his career on an offense that has a pulse. He could be a DFS punt play at min-price.
What can’t the Texan’s offense do? Last season, QB CJ Stroud was lighting up defenses, and now they added RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs. The Sky is the limit, but who do you pick between Diggs, WR Tank Dell, and WR Nico Collins? It is likely that one, if not two, will have a big week. I think I will side with Collins and Diggs. The Colts gave up a ton of yards to opposing teams’ number-one receivers last year and did very little to improve the secondary this season. A Texan passing stack could win the milli-maker, but I think you need a receiver out of this group, at the very least. As for the running game, I worry that the team will let the ball fly and neglect running the ball. Mixon is a fade for me, as we can find better matchups. Now watch him get two “gimme” 1-yard touchdowns.
The Colts are another team who must run the ball effectively. RB Jonathan Taylor is going to need a big game to keep that potent Texan offense off the field. Unfortunately, the Texans were stout against the run last season, but Taylor can be matchup proof as he ran over the Texans in week 18 last season. Expect 20-plus touches unless the Texans fall behind. QB Anthony Richardson is a slate-breaking player. He had 136 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns in limited action last season. He can move around and create plays for his teammates. Plus, the Colts could be in a shootout or fall behind in. They could be passing for the majority of the second half. WR Michael Pittman, who has caught over 200 balls over the last two seasons, would be a top stacking option. Rookie WR Adonai Mitchell is going to see plenty of action as he can be moved around to the outside or in the slot. Note that WR Josh Downs has been dealing with a high ankle sprain and is out of practice, making Mitchell a player I am very interested in should Downs not suit up. You can see if he makes my list of value plays on Saturday. I want to see where WR Alec Pierce fits in as well. I think he is better than what he has shown, and I want to blame that on previous bad QB play.
I expect a big bounce-back year for the Jaguars. QB Trevor Lawrence is 100%, and I think this is the season he throws for 4K plus yards and 30 plus TDs. He has excellent weapons in WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram; I think they make an excellent 3-player stack vs. a Miami defense that is void outside of CB Jalen Ramsey. In fact, Kirk and Engram are at the top of my DFS list because of their price points and matchups. Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. can also be sneaky, as he has been explosive in training camp. Don’t forget that WR Gabe Davis is also a deep threat and is 100% to start the season. RB Travis Etienne is as steady as they come and can score from anywhere on the field. He is a solid option and will be in many of my lineups that do not have the Jaguar stack.
The Dolphins will be a good team to stack, as they may have to air it out in a high-scoring game. QB Tua Tagovailoamay be in store for a bigger season than he had last year, as Miami blew out a bunch of teams early, shutting down the second-half passing game. WR Tyreek Hill is matchup-proof and should be a top priority every week. WR Jaylen Waddle looks to bounce back in his third season, and I think he has a solid game here. Both receivers should have at least seven catches, with Hill getting the bigger plays downfield. TE Jonnu Smith is a sneaky option, as the Jaguar defense could get caught running around trying to keep up with those receivers so that the middle could be left open. The Dolphin running game will have their hands full with the Jaguar front, but RB De’Von Achane is so explosive that he doesn’t need many touches to rack up 20 points; he will be splitting with RB Raheem Mostert who is the fade in this one.
The Vikings offense is expected to take a step back with QB Sam Darnold at the helm, but I will argue that the team moved the football with QB Nick Mullens last season. Darnold hasn’t played with talent like this and could be a DFS and seasonal sleeper. He does have mobility and scores an occasional touchdown, making his price point manageable. I do have concerns about pass protection, but the Vikings do have solid tackles that can slow down the fierce edge pass rushing the Giants have. WR Justin Jefferson has slid in seasonal fantasy football drafts, which should create lower ownership this Sunday.
Fortunately, the Giants do not have anyone who can match up with him, and he should receive double-digit targets. He has a 16-point floor with a 30-plus ceiling, making him one of my top receiver targets. WR Jordan Addison is my sleeper because, as mentioned, I don’t think the Giants can cover Jefferson, and I don’t think they can cover Addison either. Many pundits and fantasy players are also down on Addison because of off-the-field problems and an ankle injury he sustained earlier this season. He is back at practice and what I like about Addison is that he can run all the routes and then slip behind a defensive back for a long TD. Plus, he will have extremely low ownership. The Vikings offensive line is much better at pass blocking than they are at run blocking. Many blame the running backs for the Vikings poor run production when in fact, they are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. I think the Vikings will continue that trend and struggle running against the Giant front seven, meaning I am out on RB Aaron Jones this week. Let’s see if a tertiary receiver steps up for the Vikes and if TE Josh Oliver adds anything to the passing game.
A Giant stack could be sneaky on Sunday because I don’t think the Viking defense is going to be that good. QB Daniel Jones is coming back from an ACL tear, and it would be interesting to see what his mobility is. If he is able to move as before, I can see him being a very sneaky DFS play. The Vikings will be coming after him with blitzes every chance they get, and I could see him breaking containment and scooting for 50 yards. His price point is extremely cheap, making it easy for him to crush value. He also may have his best set of weapons now that he has healthy receivers and stud prospect WR Malik Nabers. Can Nabers make aging CB Stephin Gilmore look silly? WR Darius Slayton has a cheap price point, but I think WR Wan’Dale Robinson could be the sneakiest of them all. He is always involved and has a cheap price point, and the Vikings do not have a slot corner who can keep up with him. Stacking Jones with Nabers and Robinson could be super sneaky, and then bringing it back with Justin Jefferson in case an unexpected shootout occurs. RB Devin Singletary is interesting. I think he can have a solid game, but I don’t think he has that big game that you would need to take down a tournament. Let’s just look at the usage, as many believe rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. can take some carries away.
The Titan offense is expected to be much better than they were last season. They made improvements on a much-maligned offensive line and added WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Boyd, and RB Tony Pollard to give them bigger plays and more consistency. The biggest beneficiary should be QB Will Levis, who is not afraid to gun the ball downfield. He may have one less weapon this weekend as WR DeAndre Hopkins has been limited with a knee issue he suffered several weeks ago. I am fading the entire passing game vs. this Bear pass defense. I don’t think there are enough big plays down the field for anyone in the passing game to be in winning DFS lineups. I do have some interest in Pollard because he has a cheaper price point, but RB Tyjae Spears is going to see the field, especially on third down. I think we should just wait and see the Titans play in week one and use them in a better matchup down the road.
Do you think that the Bears fans are excited? Rookie QB Caleb Williams is creating quite the mania in the Windy City. He is that type of player who can break the slate because of his running ability and ability to create plays. But let’s pump the brakes. We’ve seen him play mostly backups this preseason, and now he is facing a regular-season Titan front, which is no joke. Remember, the Bears have struggled with offensive line issues for what seems like 20 years, no matter what they do to try and fix it. He could be running for his life, but that could be a good thing. He must always be under DFS consideration regardless of the matchup. Not only can he run and create plays, but he also has some excellent weapons.
WR D.J. Moore is the leader, but they brought in WR Keenan Allen and rookie WR Rome Odunze, so they should be able to spread the field. Picking one out of that list to shine from week to week is going to be difficult. I would look to Moore this week just because he is younger than Allen and was the stud last season. TE Cole Kmet is steady, but he does have TE Gerald Everett as competition for targets. Newly acquired RB D’Andre Swift leads the running backs. He is an excellent receiving back who is great on the open field. He will need to make several catches to be DFS relevant, as it will be tough sledding running on the Titan front.
The Raiders have high expectations, as they should be solid on both sides of the ball. In fact, the only weakness I see is QB Gardner Minshew, but he can be serviceable as well. He can make big plays down the field; he just needs to make better decisions at times and keep the team in the game. WR Davante Adams is the star and still has 30-point potential at his age. He is matchup-proof, and he will be lower-owned because the public doesn’t perceive the Raiders as well as I do. Both receivers, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, are sleepers because of their price points. Meyers is that solid intermediate receiver, so don’t forget that he has had 14 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Tucker is that big play guy that sneaks behind the safeties or gets lost in coverage for a long TD. Plus, the Raiders have a double tight end package with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Bowers can be moved into receiver positions, and Mayer is an excellent athletic tight end. Take note that Bowers has been limited with a foot injury, and it would shoot Mayer up on my DFS chart if Bowers were to miss. Ok, enough about the passing game. RB Zamir White was excellent to end the final four games last season, and he has 100 yards from scrimmage written all over him vs. a weak Charger run defense. My only worry is that RB Alexander Mattison may cut into his workload.
The Chargers enter the Jim Harbaugh era, and many think he will turn the Chargers around immediately, but I say, “Not so Fast!” They have a below-average defense and an offense that lacks big-time proven playmakers. QB Justin Herberthasn’t been fantasy-relevant since his rookie season. Now he is throwing to rookie WR Ladd McConkey, who I do have high hopes for, WR Joshua Palmer, who is steady, and WR Quentin Johnston, who underachieved in his rookie season. His tight end group isn’t very good with Will Dissley and Hayen Hurst. This is just a passing game that I want to stay away from all together vs. a very underrated solid Raider defense. The Raiders are going to be a DFS defense that I am going to target as I think they put on ton of pressure on Herbert. The Charger running game intrigues me as well. You know that Harbaugh would love to grind most games out on the ground. He has a pound-it-back in Gus Edwards and an explosive back in J.K. Dobbins; both are priced cheaply in DFS. I think Dobbins has the most upside going forward if he can stay on the field, which he hasn’t been able to do throughout his career. Unfortunately, it may be tough sledding as the Raiders added some beef up front to bolster their run defense. Just because I am down on the entire offense, we should pay close attention to see who the targets are going to and how they divide up the backfield touches.
The Broncos enter the season with rookie QB Bo Nix as the starter, and I am less than excited. There is a lot of hype coming out of Denver about his pre-season performance, but he played against the backups. He played against many of Green Bay’s third-string defensive players in the game he looked the best in. Another reason why I am down on Nix is because he has below-average weapons. He has receivers Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr., yawn. All three have been underachievers, and I am tired of hearing about what a sleeper Mims is as he scores 3 points. The tight end situation isn’t much better with Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich. Actually, I like Dulcich, but he can never stay on the field.
But all in all, the passing game doesn’t really match up well vs. an improving Seattle pass defense. RB Javonte Williams may have to carry the load along with RB Jaleel McLaughlin. For one of them to be DFS relevant, they are going to have to have five catches and score a touchdown, which isn’t out of the realm, as both are excellent pass catchers. Both are cheap in DFS and will be low-owned.
I like aspects of the Seattle passing game, mainly WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, as WR DK Metcalf will see who the best corner in football, Patrick Surtain, in coverage. Also, Tyler Lockett is dealing with a thigh injury that has limited him since mid-August, so expect JSN to have a big role. The other aspect is TE Noah Fant; I know he has been limited in practice, but I expect him to play. The Broncos have been so bad covering the tight end, and this is a revenge game, as Fant was drafted by the Broncos. I think an afternoon slate contest stacked with QB Geno Smith, JSN, and Fant could be underrated. RB Kenneth Walker could be in line for a huge game. The Bronco defense gave up a whopping 5 YPC so expect a 20-touch game for Walker and a TD. Let’s also see how the Seahawks use backup running back Zach Charbonnet in his second season.
This is the type of game when QB Dak Prescott struggles in. He is facing a top 5 defense that likes to get after the passer. Considering that the Cowboys offensive line and running game are expected to take a step back, I could see them in in third and long and Dak getting sacked multiple times along with throwing several mistakes. WR CeeDee Lamb is matchup-proof, but he held out for most of camp, and his price point tops the receiver position. We have much better matchups at this price. WR Brandin Cooks and WR Jalen Tolbert have manageable DF prices, and I would look to them before Lamb in this one, but truthfully, I am going to avoid the entire situation. I am also avoiding the running back tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. I think they struggle to get anything going.
We don’t hear much out of Cleveland. Their offense is just so ordinary and average. QB Deshaun Watson has been a huge disappointment for all the money they spent. Yet he is talented and could have a solid season. His go-to receiver is WR Amari Cooper, and this is a game of revenge for him. The Cowboys do have an excellent pass defense, but I think Cooper finds a way into the end zone here. I have given up on receivers Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore in the past, but maybe a change of scenery will do Jeudy well, and Moore can gain some continuity in his second season. Just beware that if you play them in DFS, be prepared to be disappointed. TE David Njoku is a freak athletically, but he had his best games last season with Joe Flacco throwing the football, not Watson. I am interested in playing RB Jerome Ford at his price point. He is a guy who has blazing speed and can go the distance on any play. He will add a few receptions, too. I figure someone from Cleveland has to score, and it may as well be him.
I am excited to see this Commanders offense in action. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels is a slate breaking type of talent. He creates with his legs and should be able to find players downfield. He may even be able to revitalize WR Terry McLaurin back into “Scary Terry” again. The Commanders also have some cheap receiving options in WR Dynami Brown, who could be deadly here, and WR Olamide Zaccheaus, who is going to have to score to be fantasy-relevant. The Buccaneer defense always plays the run well, so I am not looking for a big game from RB Brian Robinson. I do want to see how well RB Austin Ekeler runs. Does he have his juice back? Will he be the predominant third down back, and if so, how many targets will he receive? This offense could be explosive, and it would be a disappointment if they did not score 20-plus points against this Buccaneer defense.
I think a Buccaneers stack is super sneaky to take down the milli-maker. EVERYONE is in play. Remember, this was an offense that struggled early last season but became a well-oiled machine by season’s end. They are bringing everyone back and should have continuity right from the start. In fact, they have made improvements on the offensive line, so they could even be better. They are taking on a Commanders defense that could be the worst in the NFL, and so the sky is the limit in week one. QB Baker Mayfield’s price point of $5,600 in DK is a joke. He can be stacked with either or both receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Also, the addition of third-round pick WR Jalen McMillan will allow them to run three wide receiver sets, something they have been practicing during training camp and pre-season. TE Cade Otton became a huge threat in the red zone come playoff time, and I expect he will have a much better season. His price point makes him a huge bargain if he reaches the end zone on Sunday. Now to the gem, my favorite Buccaneer, RB Rachaad White. Many pundits have been down on him this off-season, picking on his rushing yards and YPC. His low rushing output has nothing to do with the player but everything to do with the offensive line. His numbers will only improve this season. Plus, are they forgetting that he may be the best catching back in the NFL? He has an outstanding matchup vs. the Commanders and could rack up 25-plus points. Obviously, not everyone on this offense is going to have a great game, and that’s why I am making 10-plus Buccaneer lineups to stack them in multiple ways. That may seem like a lot, but you can do that for less than $5 if you find the right contests.
Remember to check out my DraftKings and FanDuel GPP articles that come out on Saturday. You can follow me on X @Ibleedpurple93.
