Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

Happy Thanksgiving! As expected, the site is continuing to hum this week, and we aren’t skipping a beat when it comes to having you covered for Thursday’s games. Let’s start there.

But first: I would be remiss here if I didn’t say THANK YOU before writing one more word. I get the privilege to express my thoughts each week here to a community of people whom I consider all sharper than me. I am not the most active OWS community member of the bunch on a week-in, week-out basis, and half the time when I ramble on this site, I wonder whether or not I’m making any sense. But every week, when I sit down to write for this wonderful site, I always smile. I smile because I know how cool it is to put anything out there and see what people think of it. I smile because I know how appreciative this group is for content that thinks, because at the end of the day, we all contribute the same amount to the success of OWS and the broader community. I’m grateful to you for letting me be a small part of it…

Back to the programming: If you haven’t already seen, you can expect to receive a “Full Scroll” for Thanksgiving today, ready to get you into lineup preparation tonight and into tomorrow’s kickoffs. After all, if you’re going to lean into it (by committing to covering this slate like we always do!), then we must lean all the way into it. It’s the OWS way.

It’s only three games, and we’re given only three(ish) days to prepare, but as we always discuss at OWS, we must find an edge in every slate. There will be many content sites out there covering this slate in a “lite” fashion, meaning ‘here are some picks and a few shows, pods, etc.’ But, in my opinion, one of the cool things about OWS is this: This community is so sharp and so diligent that anything less than a 100% coverage of a slate (Edge writeups, Scroll, pods, the usual) would just feel wrong.

Plan your time accordingly over the next 24 hours, and let’s dive in.

Black Wednesday (thru Friday this week)!

OWS is continuing the deals we introduced last week to get 80% off Inner Circle and the Bink Machine for about $2 per week from today through the Super Bowl. If you don’t have Inner Circle or the Bink Machine yet, this will be the lowest price to scoop them up until much, much deeper into the season.

Inner Circle = $46 Rest of Season (Code: BlackFriday25)
Bink Machine = $19 Rest of Season (No code needed)

The Best Thanksgiving Slate Yet?!

That seems to be the consensus. High game totals, mostly tight spreads, a few divisional matchups, and, importantly, no backup QBs—hooray! Most of us would agree we are presented with an awesome setup for the three games to kick off Week 13. I just want to point out that mostly everyone agrees, for what that’s worth. Well, what is it worth?

If we really get into it, every game has four true outcomes: Team A wins a close game, Team A wins a blowout, Team B wins a close game, or Team B wins a blowout. If we want to get fancy about it, we could add two more where the game environment is a close “shootout” or a slow, low-scoring battle, as those are two strong outcomes that affect scoring and fantasy points, but those two outcomes sit within the four true ones, if that makes sense.

As we look at tomorrow’s games, with Joe Burrow likely returning, it seems the consensus is we’re going to have three good games. What defines good? Packers // Lions is a 2.5-point spread, Chiefs // Cowboys sit just three implied points apart, and the Bengals // Ravens is a matchup we expect two offenses to find success, despite the touchdown spread. In other words, Packers // Lions and Chiefs // Cowboys are expected to hit one of two true outcomes, and Bengals // Ravens are expected to follow the same path, with the added third outcome of a Ravens rout.

To see things differently, we always should strive to adjust the macro, not the micro. The macro here is that 50% of the outcomes for the first two games figure to be unexpected, while 25% of the outcome of the night game fits the same category. I hope I’m not losing you, because this is about to get real…

I try not to speak in absolutes because it will come back to bite me. But the true spirit of “angles” content at OWS is to look at things differently, but not too differently that people will think we’re crazy. It’s also important to mention that the “path less traveled/unexpected outcome” is not likely to occur in all three games. Let’s explore these unaccounted-for scenarios in the hopes that one of the paths illuminates itself as we build lineups.

Packers at Lions…(likely to be a close Packers win or a close Lions win)

• Packers blowout win: Josh Jacobs returns from injury, carries his usual load, or, between him and Emanuel Wilson, they take advantage of a tired Lions defense coming off a hard-fought overtime win. Jordan Love likely does his Tom Brady impression of sprinkling work across his various receivers, and the Packers defense gives Jared Goff fits like it did in Week 1.
• Lions blowout win: Goff learned a thing or two from the Week 1 loss and handles Jeff Hafley’s defense. The Jahmyr Gibbs explosion continues, and the offense is sparked, not stymied, through Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. The Lions defense shuts down the Packers running game (4th in NFL in Y/A over the past three games), and when the Packers are forced to rely on Love, bad things can happen.

Chiefs at Cowboys…(likely to be a close Chiefs win or a close Cowboys win)

• Chiefs blowout win: Kansas City finally builds momentum. Patrick Mahomes stacks two wins in five days as the Cowboys defense looks out of sorts like it did in the first half against Philadelphia. The Chiefs get their running game going with the return of Isiah Pacheco, and that finally opens up play-action passes to Mahomes, to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. Dak and the Cowboys offense look stymied by a well-schemed Steve Spagnuolo defense, like they tend to do in the playoffs every year.
• Cowboys blowout win: Dak and the offense just keep rolling. Death, taxes, and the Cowboys putting up points. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens prove to be one of the more dynamic receiving duos in the NFL once again, and this new-look Cowboys defense makes Mahomes and the Chiefs offense look old and stale.

Bengals at Ravens…(likely to be a blowout Ravens win, close Ravens win, or close Bengals win)

• Bengals blowout win: Joe Burrow returns with a bang. The Ravens have struggled to win games against the Browns and Jets in recent weeks but came out unscathed. Lamar Jackson does not look right even as he puts up points against Cincinnati’s hapless defense, but more impactful is Burrow, as nearly every Bengal clicks and Ja’Marr Chase looks like a man possessed in his return from suspension.

There are some more “sure” bets, like the fact that the Cowboys and Bengals defenses rank first and second in opponent touchdowns per game. The question you need to ask is which of the expected outcomes happens, and which of the unexpected emerges as well. Across three games, we probably won’t get three unexpected events, but we’re almost always destined for at least one.

These are the games within the games on Thanksgiving. Navigate the balance, build those lineups that win, and take down a tournament!

Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

(And, as always, thank you for reading.)

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate.

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 25 ::

BIG-PICTURE SLATE OVERVIEW ::

Well well well. What a Thanksgiving slate, right?

I’m sure that will be the consensus.

That’s certainly what I thought when I first opened it this afternoon.

But what if?

What if the Packers (23 points against Minnesota // 27 vs the Giants // 7 vs Philly // 13 vs Carolina // an outlier 35 vs Pittsburgh // 27 vs Arizona // 27 vs Cincy — look at the teams they only managed 27 against, and tell me how much confidence that inspires) actually only score 23 to 24 points, in line with their implied team total, with an offense that spreads the ball around? And what if the Lions — implied for 25.75 — land at or below their team total, with high-priced pieces that squeeze your roster on a slate without a ton of obvious value? In the Lions’ five games under 34 points, they’ve produced one elite score: Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Bucs.

What if a still-very-strong Kansas City defense does enough to chop the legs out from under the Cowboys’ offense so that none of their high-priced pieces are producing, and what if the Cowboys’ improved defense is strong enough to prevent elite scores from a spread-the-wealth Kansas City offense?

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

There are three games on the Thanksgiving slate, each of which carries a game total between 49.0 (Packers @ Lions) and 52.5 (Chiefs @ Cowboys). That macro realization is going to guide much of our exploitative stances on this short slate, if nothing more than for the simple fact that Vegas is currently projecting three games with similar environments. The first two games on the slate carry spreads within three points, while the Ravens are favored by a solid seven. That leaves Baltimore with the highest Vegas implied team total, which has directly inflated the expected ownership of their players. We’ll discuss more of the nuanced aspects of that realization below.

As we discuss every year on the Thanksgiving slate, this slate is unlike any other throughout the season. The primary reason is that it is a slate played in sequence, rather than played simultaneously (as most other slates in the year are). I went into the theoretics of that truth on the Tuesday edition of DFS Labs, but will quickly touch on the wavetops here.

Picture the game tree of a slate as an upside-down Christmas tree, starting at a single point and extending upwards and outwards. This game tree represents every decision point along with every outcome available to us, is borderline infinite on a normal slate but carries far fewer total outcomes on a three-game slate, and will have an optimal path. On a full slate, we know we have more leeway away from optimal to win. On a one-game slate, we know we often must hit the exact optimal to win. On a three-game slate, in contests with more than 600,000 entries, we know we must be closer to the actual optimal to win on this slate. But the biggest change on the Thanksgiving slate is that the game tree is effectively three small trees placed on top of each other due to the sequential nature of the slate, with three games played back-to-back-to-back as opposed to at the same time. That means we get more information with each passing game, each passing quarter, and each passing play. As a general rule, the bulk of the field will not be approaching things in this manner, instead setting a roster, or portfolio of rosters, and letting things play out. We have a distinct edge in making adjustments at each new decision point in the game tree (each game) as more information is added.

Knowing that we must be as close to optimal as possible, if not exact optimal, to win on this slate, we should be adjusting the remainder of our rosters/portfolio based on how close to optimal a given roster is after each game is played.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

A quick note before we jump into the chalk. We’re only going to cover the top ownership expectation at each position to streamline our discussion on the Thanksgiving slate.

PATRICK MAHOMES

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The quarterback for the team leading the league in PROE, who also ranks third in pass attempts per game, is against the Cowboys. Checks out, on paper.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The receiver leading the league in XFP/G (ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey at all positions) is playing with his starting quarterback for the first time since Week 2 and without Tee Higgins. Checks out.

DERRICK HENRY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Henry has seen 20 or more opportunities in each of his previous six games, against the worst defense in the league. Checks out.

MARK ANDREWS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Andrews has seen five or fewer targets in each game since the team’s Week 5 bye, making him heavily reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy production. Cracks are starting to show themselves.

RAVENS D/ST

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Ravens have started to play better football while getting much healthier, on both sides of the ball. That said, their opponents since their Week 7 bye were the Bears, the Dolphins, the Vikings, the Browns, and the Jets – not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive ability. They have only 18 sacks and 13 takeaways on the year and are averaging 2.0 sacks and 2.0 takeaways per game since their bye. More cracks.

CHALK BUILD::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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The format:

My “Player Grid” for the Thanksgiving slate will take the format of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid just didn’t feel like the right way to try to break down this slate with only three games on it and such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see every Sunday with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat on Thanksgiving is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

QB Strategy ::

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

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The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Thanksgiving Topics

1. Contest Selection and Bankroll

2. Late Swap and Adjustments

3. Getting Unique

4. Value Plays

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1. Contest Selection and Bankroll

The Question ::

NFL DFS on Thanksgiving can be a wild ride and extremely fun. Especially since the NFL moved to having three games on the day, it’s pretty much a full day of football and fun. The tricky thing about this is that it is such a unique slate and many of us have a lot of other commitments on this day. It is easy to be tempted by an extra day of football at this point in the season, especially with the monster contests that the sites offer, but the nature of the slate is so unique that there is a tight line to balance of playing too much and overextending the bankroll.

Considering the nature of the day, size of the contests, and small number of games – do you have a preferred approach from a contest selection (size, price, and format) and/or bankroll approach?

The Answers ::

JM >>

My answer to this question may not be directly applicable to you, but in a sense, there are some elements that copy/paste onto whatever your situation is.

For me, this is one of the busier work weeks of the year. This is less true now than it was in the past, as I handle a lot less of the “business” side than I used to, and with the Journal, I feel the squeeze/strain of content less than I did in the past. But the fact still stands that Thanksgiving is sort of our last big push on the site with sales/marketing, and with the popularity of the Thanksgiving slate, we essentially have a “Main Slate” to help subscribers get ready for on Thursday, and we I turn around on Friday and have to be ready for podcasts, Player Grid, etc., while making sure I’m not skimping on “along the way” thoughts in the Journal as well.

Because of the double-squeeze on this trip, all surrounded by travel, family, etc., I usually tell myself that I don’t have to play the Thanksgiving slate at all. I mention this every year in some form or other, and if you’ve been reading my content long enough, you know that every year, I actually do end up playing the Thanksgiving slate (I think there was one year when it was particularly ugly and I actually did take the slate off — but otherwise, I’ve played it every year I have played DFS), but even just giving myself permission to not play the slate takes a bit of the pressure/load off my mind and allows me to feel the strain of the week far less than I otherwise might.

When I inevitably do play the slate, I usually play about 25% of my normal Main Slate bankroll. To me, it’s a bonus slate, and I don’t want to stretch myself too thin by putting too much pressure on the slate itself.

Your situation is different than mine, of course; but also, there’s a good chance this is a busier-than-normal week for you as well (or at the very least: this is a week with a very different structure than your typical week). If you don’t feel like you’re gaining a substantial edge on this slate, I think leaning into a similar approach is wise.

At the same time, if you instead have more time than normal for DFS this week, and if you’re seeing angles on the slate you like, you can recognize that most people are shorter on time than normal, and this might be a reason to be a bit more aggressive than you might typically be. Don’t overextend yourself, of course! — but if you’re spotting edge, there’s no reason not to lean into it while it’s there.

Xandamere >>

I personally always set aside time on Thanksgiving for DFS (sometimes to my wife’s dismay) – to Mike’s point, a lot of people are playing very casually on this slate, they might set a lineup but they won’t check in throughout the day and late swap, and so to me this is one of the highest-edge slates of the season. That doesn’t mean you’ll always be profitable on it, of course, as sharp rosters flop all the time…but the EV is there. 

Normally on a short slate, I don’t enter as much volume as I would on a main slate, but Thanksgiving is the exception to me here. Personally I treat it like a regular main slate and try to get around my normal full slate buy-ins, because I feel like the edge is great and I want to hammer it. That approach may not work for you, though! If you go this route, make sure you have the appropriate amount of time to dedicate to DFS, both in prep before the slate and then being able to watch the slate as it progresses – one of the biggest advantages of Thanksgiving DFS is how the games are spread out, which allows you to assess where you are and react by swapping, and if you aren’t able to utilize this edge, I would recommend either not playing or just playing a modest amount for fun.

TL;DR – Only enter as many rosters as you feel you can effectively watch and swap if needed.

Hilow >>

First off, consider this – Thanksgiving weekend is the most viewed weekend of football outside of the Super Bowl. Now relate that to DFS – size of contests, skill of the average entry in contests, familial obligations, shortened week, time to prepare, etc. The edge is tangible this holiday weekend. That said, we should really be viewing this slate as another data point to amplify our expected value. As in, if you are a losing player, more volume simply means your money will bleed faster with an additional data point. But we here at OWS can use the additional data point to realize our equity sooner. All of that to say – nothing really changes for me outside of a few additional Milly Maker entries. Play your game and realize your equity faster!

For me, one of my greatest edges is my ability to see beyond the projections (ownership and otherwise) to be able to identify what the field is likeliest to see out of a slate. That edge is amplified on a short slate (although I haven’t quite perfected how to harness it for showdown slates just yet), meaning I’ll be looking to attack this weekend with little remorse. I plan on maxing the $5 Milly Maker.

Mike >>

Pricing seems far tighter on this year’s Thanksgiving slate than in past years, which to me is a very good thing from an EV perspective. Tighter pricing forces tougher decisions and tougher decisions are an advantage for those of us who go deeper and see both the likeliest scenarios and *how* games may play differently than the surface level analysis would suggest. As such, the next part of my answer gets a little more complicated.

The “optimal” approach to this slate probably involves a lot of rosters in lower dollar contests and utilizing variable probability and game theory strategies to late swap and make decisions to give ourselves a direct path to first place. These three game slates with staggered starts provide a greater opportunity to truly go down these rabbit holes and maximize EV and paths to first than any other traditional slate because of how much information we obtain in terms of ownership, player results, and positional scoring. The problem is time. Actually executing these strategies in the optimal way requires more than just checking your phone between games and, frankly, a family holiday is a tough spot for me to be doing that at this point in my life with two kids under 6 and grandparents with questionable health. With that in mind, I will probably limit my number of rosters this year so that I can enjoy the day but give those rosters the focus necessary to play in an optimal way. Not the most fun answer, but I am sure there are a lot of you who can relate.

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2. Late Swap and Adjustments

The Question ::

The most common and comfortable way to build a roster on a slate like this with three games that all have relatively high totals and popular players will be to “account for” each game, and often each team. A quarterback with two of his teammates and one of his opponents, then one player from each team from each of the other two games, and a defense correlated with one of the running backs, is kind of the default “cover all my bases” approach that people will naturally gravitate towards. Another common roster construction will be a QB plus two teammates and two opponents accompanied by a “mini” from a second game, with a running back and defense being selected from the one remaining game. As I see it, there are three things that are psychologically very difficult for people to do on slates like this::

1. Not playing any skill players from a specific game
2. Playing six or seven players from a specific game
3. Playing a defense from the game that is your primary stack

Putting all of those things together, we can see that leaning heavily into a specific game environment can pay off in a massive way if it comes together – simply because it is so hard to pull the trigger on. With that in mind, which game on the Thanksgiving Slate appeals to you the most from an overstack perspective and why?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Overview

Every year the Thanksgiving slate provides us with a unique opportunity to leverage our understanding of both game theory and roster construction with the objective of reaching the summit of a GPP leaderboard. Luckily, for the OWS community, the same strategy and theory we utilize week in and week out is even easier to execute on a short slate. With that in mind, let’s highlight a few key concepts and misnomers:

• On a small slate like this, one of the biggest mistakes our competition will make in terms of roster construction will be thinking about certainty or safety (what’s likeliest to happen) and building around that. It’s essential to realize that if you construct your entire roster with what is most likely to happen in all three games, you will be highly duped and won’t win much even if your lineup finishes first.

• It’s also critical to remember that we are not building to maximize points, but instead are constructing each roster with how to maximize our chance to get first place. Wait, what? Are you saying I don’t want to try to score the most points??? While that seems counterintuitive, what I mean is we should approach each roster with a certain game script in mind, taking a similar approach to how we think and build for Showdown contests.  

• Additionally, we need to evaluate what each lineup is betting on. For example, let’s look at the Chiefs vs Cowboys game since Vegas (and a majority of the field) thinks THE MOST LIKELY outcome is a high-scoring affair as it carries an over/under of 52.5, the highest of the three Thanksgiving Day games. If Dallas/KC plays out as a 35-31 game, where eight or nine offensive TDs are scored, a Prescott or Mahomes stack will likely be optimal due to the soft pricing. So, if you are making lineups without these two at QB, be mindful of what this game playing out differently would mean as you construct the rest of your roster. 

• Finally, keep in mind that you don’t have to be different everywhere – some highly owned players will end up in the optimal.

Strategy

What I like best about this year’s slate is that all three games have a wide range of outcomes. What I mean by that is that each game could play out to be the highest or lowest scoring game on the slate and no one would be surprised. Players who are willing to embrace some uncertainty and leverage late swap will likely be at a competitive advantage.

Lets dive in

What are you thankful for this Thanksgiving? Save the real answers for more important forums. We’re here to talk daily fantasy football, so what are you thankful for in DFS? Let me give you some of mine.

1) Thankful for no blueprint to game stacks and overstacks 

Stacking works. Overstacking works on some slates. QB-RB-WR stacks work sometimes. QB-WR with two bring-backs works. And so on. If it were as simple as a QB and WR combo always being on optimal lineups, we wouldn’t play this “sport.” It’s complex because that’s correlation. Barbell outcomes are driven by stacks. I am thankful for the fact that we can take these in any direction, any week.

2) Thankful for optimal lineups always showing both a mix of plays I was on & plays I wasn’t. 

This creates humility and opportunity/hope all in one. Take Week 12, for example, where I lost every dollar I entered. Jahmyr Gibbs was one of my convictions, but of course, his ownership blew up. The Eagles wide receivers (chose DeVonta over AJB); felt confident about Emanuel Wilson; and obviously, Hunter Henry, given the matchup; and the Cardinals defense at home against Trevor Lawrence. Never thought about Jameis Winston for a second, and talked myself in and out of these plays throughout the week. The mix of thinking through these and leaving a few stones unturned is always hope for the next slate.

3) Thankful for consensus (and social media)

Without “consensus,” we wouldn’t have our pretend villain of “the field.” That would be boring. “The Field” doesn’t think like us; they are not as sharp. “The Field” is going to overown this player and underown this other player. We need “the field” because we ARE in “the field.” This is called consensus and projections, and it’s what’s driven by optimizers. If I have built any brand over the years for myself, it’s that these thoughts (my first thoughts, too) are what I fight against, and try to build against accordingly.

4) Thankful for the chaos of one-game samples

We can’t predict the future. We can predict the present. I wrote a brief course on this in 2024, which basically lays this out as why we should understand what we know and acknowledge what we don’t. We have a good feel for what will happen over long-term samples (player stats, W-L records) but in one-game, goodness we have no idea and no idea or thought is crazy.

5) Thankful for the Bink Machine

This is a new one for me over most of last season and this one. I am not an MME player, but I love the Bink Machine because it shows me the good plays from a machine instead of my head. I don’t know if I can say it any more plainly than that. You should be giving this tool a chance, because it’s 2025, and it’s no longer man or machine, it’s man + machine.

And finally, I’m thankful for OWS (since 2021!) for letting me express myself and define my own path as a DFS player over the past decade.

Bengals // Ravens late-night hammer (Burrow + Chase + Gesicki + Zay + Likely)