Sunday, Feb 9th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

The Scroll Week 12

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    THE DAILY DOSE


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    The Fallout

    Welcome to the Monday edition of the Daily Dose newsletter, our “Fantasy Fallout” day. In this article, you will get a quick rundown of the relevant things we learned from the week’s games from Thursday through Sunday. 

    We won’t talk about every single player and we usually won’t spend time on studs who go nuts (no one needs to be told to start CeeDee Lamb right now!), but rather, the idea is to update you on usage trends, injuries, and other relevant things to help your decisions with your teams.

    Commanders at Eagles
    • Saquon Barkley exploded for 198 total yards and two TDs as the Eagles defeated the Commanders, 26-18, on Thursday Night Football.
    • Terry McLaurin didn’t see his first reception until the fourth quarter and ended with just one catch for 10 yards. He will remain a volatile weekly starter as WAS remains a run-first team.
    • Brian Robinson returned from injury and scored a rushing TD, but Austin Ekeler remained a focal point of the passing game, leading the Commanders with 89 yards on eight catches. He remains a viable Flex option even with Robinson back.
    Raiders at Dolphins

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    Waiver Targets

    These are the top players to consider adding from waivers this week. Unless otherwise noted, all players below are available in greater than 50% of Yahoo leagues (as of Sunday evening).

    Week 12 teams on bye: Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Saints

    QB Pickups

    Anthony Richardson, IND, Week 12 vs DET
    • AR was announced as the Colts starter for the remainder of the season last week and responded with his best passing game and overall fantasy game of the year in a win over the Jets. He completed 20 of 30 passes for 272 yards and a TD. He ran for another 32 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground.
    • Medium-priority add. If you are in need of a new QB or an additional QB option, AR is a great waiver addition. While the 32/2 rushing line is what gives him the chance to be a real fantasy difference maker, it’s the fact that he finally completed more than half of his passes that I’m most excited about for AR and the whole Indy offense. The Colts will be on bye Week 14.
    • 5 – 15% of FAAB.
    Bo Nix, DEN, Week 12 at LV
    • Nix rewarded those who streamed him last week with an efficient 307/4 passing game in a blowout win over the Falcons. He completed TDs to four different pass catchers during a game in which the Broncos scored on their first drive and never looked back.
    • Medium-priority add. Similar to AR above, we have another widely available  waiver QB option this week who has shown the ability to score fantasy points with his legs. If you are in need of another QB to stream or play matchups with, you might want to add one of these guys now and hold him through his bye (Denver is also on bye Week 14).
    • 5 – 15% of FAAB.

    RB Pickups

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    NFC West Midseason Recap

    Standings after Week 11:

    • Cardinals 6-4
    • Rams 5-5
    • Seahawks 5-5
    • 49ers 5-5

    ARIZONA CARDINALS

    General Notes :: 
    • Kyler Murray is playing perhaps the best football of his career and has the Cardinals in control of the NFC West.
    • James Conner has stayed healthy all season and has at least 17 opportunities in eight of his 10 games played, including 20 per game over the last month.
    • Trey McBride does not have a receiving touchdown yet this season despite ranking third in the league in receptions, yards, and targets at his position. That will likely regress and he is in position for a great second half of 2024.
    • Marvin Harrison Jr. has played very well this season and his presence has opened up the Arizona offense, but he has not been targeted over seven times in a game since Week 3.
    • Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are the other Cardinals WRs who see the field often, but they have very limited and low-value roles while everyone is healthy.
    • Rookie RB Trey Benson has been given significant playing time in blowouts the last two weeks and looked very good in both instances. He would be an instant RB1 if Conner were to miss time and should be added if he is available.
    Offensive Outlook :: 

    The Cardinals’ offense has been very good this year and “solid” is kind of what comes to mind. They aren’t breaking off huge plays very often (so far), but are pretty consistent in being able to move the ball and stay competitive. Their two losses by significant margins were against the Commanders in a game they did not have McBride and against the Packers in a game in which Harrison was injured early. As long as everyone is healthy, this is a unit that is really starting to gel and hit its stride, as they have averaged 29 points per game over their last three outings.

    Looking Ahead :: 

    Arizona has an extremely friendly schedule ahead for both real-life and fantasy football purposes. They have a tough matchup against the Vikings in Week 13, but otherwise their other five remaining games are all against middling-to-poor defenses. As Harrison enters the second half of his rookie season where we have seen so many high-profile WRs take off, we could be in store for exactly that from him as well. McBride’s touchdown variance should correct itself soon as well, and Murray is probably a top-8 rest-of-season QB, if not higher.

    Fantasy Playoffs ::
    • Week 15 — vs Patriots
      • Run Defense DVOA — 28th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 31st
    • Week 16 — at Panthers
      • Run Defense DVOA — 32nd
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 30th
    • Week 17 — at Rams (second matchup)
      • Run Defense DVOA — 20th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 22nd

    LOS ANGELES RAMS

    General Notes :: 

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    NFC East Midseason Recap

    • Eagles 8-2
    • Commanders 7-4 (Week 14 bye)
    • Cowboys 3-7 
    • Giants 2-8
    PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
    General Notes :: 
    • Jalen Hurts is the QB2 in points per game this season and has been the QB1 since Week 6 when A.J. Brown returned from injury.
    • Saquon Barkley is the RB1 in fantasy through 11 weeks and has gone over 30 PPR points in four of 10 games despite ceding several “tush push” TDs to Hurts this season. 
    • Brown has been mildly disappointing this season, as he missed three games with an injury and has not scored a touchdown in any of his last four games.
    • DeVonta Smith has been solid this year, scoring 15+ PPR points in six of nine games he has played in, but he has not gone over 21 points yet this year as he plays a complementary role to the Eagles “Big 3”.
    • Tight end Dallas Goedert had a career game in Week 3 with the Eagles missing Brown and Smith, but he’s averaged only 8.0 PPR points in his other six active games.
    Offensive Outlook :: 

    The Eagles unsurprisingly rank fourth in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA and they have been a juggernaut offensively when healthy. In the games in which they had all three of Hurts, Barkley, and Brown healthy they have point totals of 34, 20, 28, 37, 28, 34, and 26 – good for an average of 29.6 points per game, which would be third best in the NFL on the season. They have done this without truly opening up their passing game since they have been able to control games on the ground and their defense has improved throughout the year, allowing them to salt away leads and control game environments. 

    Looking Ahead :: 

    With six games left in the fantasy season, the Eagles have four games on their schedule that project to be extremely competitive and two games (against the Panthers and Cowboys) that we should expect them to win handily. The Lions are rolling along with one loss, while the Commanders are only a game behind the Eagles in the standings, meaning that this is a team that should be fighting for playoff positioning all the way to the end of the season. The Eagles should continue to be a highly efficient offense as long as their core players stay healthy, and their weekly floor as a unit is very high while their ceiling is most likely to be unlocked if/when they play high-level opponents like the Ravens in Week 13.

    Fantasy Playoffs ::
    • Week 15 — vs Steelers
      • Run Defense DVOA — 10th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 8th
    • Week 16 — at Commanders (second matchup)
      • Run Defense DVOA — 29th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 21st
    • Week 17 — vs Cowboys (second matchup)
      • Run Defense DVOA — 27th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 29th

    WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

    General Notes :: 

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    NFC North Midseason Recap

    Standings after Week 11:

    • Lions 9-1
    • Vikings 8-2
    • Packers 7-3
    • Bears 4-6

    DETROIT LIONS

    General Notes :: 
    • Jared Goff is having the best season of his career and has been incredibly efficient while throwing at a low rate in most games since Detroit has been rolling teams.
    • Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are almost certainly the top RB duo in the NFL and both are weekly starters for fantasy.
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2024 season has taken a step back from 2023 due to limited volume, but in Week 11 he showcased that he’s “still got it”.
    • Jameson Williams has opened up an explosive element to the Lions offense despite a surprise two-game mid-season suspension. He is a boom-or-bust weekly fantasy option.
    • Sam LaPorta has also taken a big step back from a fantasy perspective in 2024 after his TE1 season last year. He is still a strong weekly starting consideration, but no longer the lock he was previously.
    Offensive Outlook :: 

    The Lions lead the NFL in scoring and rank first in rushing offense DVOA, as their elite offensive line and dominant RB duo of Gibbs/Montgomery makes life miserable for their opponents. Their defense is also among the top units in the league despite losing All-Pro defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have shown a willingness to stay aggressive deep into games even with big leads and there hasn’t really been a team who has found a recipe to stopping them yet, as they have scored 24+ points in seven straight games and have scored at least five touchdowns in a game four times during that stretch.

    Looking Ahead :: 

    Detroit has been rolling along, but the job is not done. The Lions have a tough remaining schedule with four games against the Packers, Bills, 49ers, and Vikings. The Vikings and Eagles are each only a game back so they are nowhere near in position to consider slowing things down. In 2023 they played all their starters in Week 18 with their playoff position locked up, as Dan Campbell’s “compete at all costs” mindset requires playing to win at all times. The Lions’ defense is aggressive, and while their overall metrics are great, they can also give up big scores to opponents and get into shootouts. Given their remaining schedule, offensive firepower, and aggressive approach on both sides of the ball, we should be targeting Lions games for fantasy goodness on a weekly basis all year.

    Fantasy Playoffs ::
    • Week 15 — vs Bills
      • Run Defense DVOA — 7th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 11th
    • Week 16 — at Bears (second matchup)
      • Run Defense DVOA — 31st
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 9th
    • Week 17 — at 49ers
      • Run Defense DVOA — 19th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 3rd

    MINNESOTA VIKINGS

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    NFC South Midseason Recap

    Standings after Week 11:
    • Falcons 6-5 (Week 12 bye)
    • Buccaneers 4-6
    • Saints 4-7 (Week 12 bye)
    • Panthers 3-7

    ATLANTA FALCONS

    General Notes :: 
    • Kirk Cousins has been solid for the Falcons but has only had two games over 20 fantasy points, both against the Bucs. 
    • Bijan Robinson had five straight games with 20+ fantasy points prior to being shut down by the Broncos in Week 11. 
    • Backup RB Tyler Allgeier would be an every-week RB1 if Robinson ever misses time.
    • Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been solid this season but have only had truly big games when Cousins had his. 
    • TE Kyle Pitts has had a couple of big weeks and demonstrated big-play ability, but his weekly floor is also very low. 
    Offensive Outlook :: 

    Atlanta has been, for the most part, a run-based offense. Robinson is their workhorse RB and backup Allgeier is more involved in games where they build a big lead and/or are able to run a high amount of plays. The Falcons’ passing game has been solid, but they have really only pushed the issue twice and those were in games against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense. London is being used in a higher-volume role and running a lot of his routes from the slot, making him a more consistent producer. Atlanta is balanced and capable but seems to be very opponent-dependent in terms of both their approach and effectiveness.

    Looking Ahead :: 

    Atlanta is in control of its division with a two-game lead and is currently on bye. Starting in Week 13, the Falcons have six remaining games, and three of those games are against teams (NYG, LVR, and CAR) whose seasons are already in the tank. With that in mind, Atlanta is very likely to win its division relatively handily but also unlikely to catch the top teams in the conference. For fantasy purposes, this means that their main guys could have their workloads managed in the season’s final weeks as they are likely going to be locked into a No. 3 or No. 4 seed and health will be of high importance once we get to January. London and Robinson are every-week starters due to the volume they see and their talent, but Cousins, Pitts, and Mooney are dependent on matchups and game environments weekly.

    Fantasy Playoffs ::
    • Week 15 — at Raiders
      • Run Defense DVOA — 25th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 26th
    • Week 16 — vs Giants
      • Run Defense DVOA — 22nd
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 24th
    • Week 17 — at Commanders
      • Run Defense DVOA — 29th
      • Pass Defense DVOA — 21st

    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

    General Notes :: 

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    Rankings

    The weekend is here and it’s time to get our lineups set before Sunday’s full slate of games. Each week, the Saturday edition of the Daily Dose will feature my rankings for all players who have yet to play a game this week. Obviously this will not include the Thursday games, but feel free to hit me up in Discord if you have some tough decisions around guys who play on Thursday. 

    Most of the leagues I play in are full-PPR, 12-team leagues and these rankings are designed for those settings – you may need to make some slight adjustments based on your own league settings.

    QB :: 

    1. Jalen Hurts
    2. Lamar Jackson
    3. Jayden Daniels
    4. Kyler Murray
    5. Anthony Richardson
    6. Patrick Mahomes
    7. C.J. Stroud
    8. Justin Herbert
    9. Bo Nix
    10. Jared Goff
    11. Tua Tagovailoa
    12. Baker Mayfield
    13. Geno Smith
    14. Jordan Love
    15. Matthew Stafford
    16. Drake Maye
    17. Sam Darnold
    18. Cooper Rush
    19. Caleb Williams
    20. Brandon Allen
    21. Will Levis
    22. Tommy DeVito
    23. Gardner Minshew
    24. Bryce Young

    RB :: 

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