The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?”
I think we’ve found some angles throughout the week that will help us to maximize the edges we create on this unique slate, but those are the four elements that stand out to me as being unique/different in this week compared to others.
I’d say it’s the first week in a while that doesn’t have a whole pile of smash running back plays. There are some RB plays who are good on paper, of course – and it’s possible we get some value as there are a couple of questionable guys – but it’s been a while since we’ve not had at least 2-3 objectively great RB plays with some combination of high floor, high ceiling, great matchup, and cheap price. We also have the highest total game that we’ve seen this season on the slate with WAS/DAL checking in at a whopping 54.5 point total, whereas no other game is even at 50. Slates with very obvious “best games” are often very interesting slates to attack.
From a macro perspective, this is the first “pay up at QB” slate of the season. People are going to want to jam in Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott as the quarterbacks on the teams with the top three team totals. We also have mounting chalk that works in conjunction with those pay-up options, primarily the middle range at running back and Rashee Rice. Those players all project extremely well and are solid on-paper plays, but I wonder if there are other ways to attack this slate (hint, hint). I also wonder if the chalk is a little bit more fragile on this slate than it has been in recent weeks (hint, hint). This leaves us with an interesting puzzle to piece together through a theoretical framework, which I will do my best to unpack in the End Around and on The Slate podcast.
There is a clear top game environment (WAS/DAL), but that game has a lot of questions around it and could see usage/production spread out as the Commanders deal with injury uncertainty and have a rotating cast of players who could be involved and the Cowboys welcome back CeeDee Lamb while their other guys are priced for how the team operated without him. Then there is a clear second game environment (IND/LAC) where the Colts are very concentrated and the Chargers all have modest salaries. On the other end of the spectrum, we have three spots where there is potential for massive blowouts and one-sided affairs (KC, NE, and DEN). And bringing it all home, we have two games (MIA/CLE and NO/CHI) with massive weather concerns. This week really does have a bit of everything that makes a DFS slate fun!
We have a massive decision point on our hands this week with the WAS/DAL game, that has a game total of 55 points and the potential to turn into a true shootout that dominates a slate – especially given the context of a slightly smaller slate, lack of value options, and some games with weather concerns. This game also has questions around it as far as personnel with the Commanders receivers having injury issues and the Cowboys welcoming CeeDee Lamb back to the lineup.
As this is such a huge decision point this week, I figured it deserved its own question in this week’s Oracle. So with all that said, how are you planning to handle this game and what players or angles do you prefer for handling this game?
