The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?”
When I build a roster that doesn’t start with Goff // Gibbs // ARSB // Jamo, I quickly reach a point where it feels like, “Wow…I really don’t have any remaining high-confidence options at the final running back and wide receiver spots.” (Honestly…even when I start with Gibbs, I feel that way about the remaining running back spot.) But of course, when I start a roster with Goff (and the full block), I don’t have as much confidence in my quarterback output. If I go with Lamar + Andrews, I’m pretty confident I’m getting there with my starting point. If I go with Brissett + McBride, the same. Even Mahomes + Kelce gives me that feeling of, “Okay, I know what I’m getting here; now let’s do that with the rest of this build.” I have a high degree of confidence in more tight ends than I can play; I have a high degree of confidence that one of the Lions is going to have a strong game (and that there’s a runout in which all the Lions get there). I feel great about the floor I’m getting from JSN when I can get him onto a roster. But outside of these — to me — this slate feels wide, wide open.
Well I guess what’s weird to me is that we have spots where players are STILL mispriced. Trey McBride and Jacoby Brissett, for example, are still too cheap considering the consistent production they’ve delivered for FIVE straight games now. Which…doesn’t make the slate unique, because it’s been this way for several weeks in a row, but it still really stands out to me.
What makes it unique is that outside of those few spots, pricing is much tighter and we don’t have a really clear “best spot” attack. The aforementioned JAX/ARI game has an only-decent total and a game environment where the Jags could just really slow it down and choke the life out of it. Meanwhile we have multiple 50+ total games for…I think the first time this season? It feels like it, at least. We have THREE games with totals over 50, which is pretty wild….except they’re all tough to stack for. The Patriots are tough to play in DFS because of how unpredictable the passing is. The Lions are great (but expensive), but are the Giants viable? The Colts and Chiefs have good defenses and expensive players. There’s no spot that really jumps out as “game stack me!” which means there are a whooooole lot of viable ways to attack this slate.
We’ve got another slate of tight pricing, with DraftKings finally pricing players up for the matchup after three months of play. I mean, look at the salaries of the Patriots as they prepare to face off against the Bengals. That adds an interesting wrinkle to this slate that we haven’t necessarily had to deal with yet this season. We’re also lacking much in the way of directional certainty, with the Lions standing out the most. There are numerous spots where we’re waiting on injury news that could open things up (Josh Jacobs, Jaylen Warren, Jaxson Dart, the Jacksonville backfield) and we’re missing some key contributors (Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr, potentially Darius Slayton), all of which change the dynamics of the slate. That leaves a lot of uncertainty in the main slate, setting up a scenario where embracing additional variance in our builds likely carries a significant boost to EV. Slates like this one are my favorite!
The first thing that stands out to me is we have a couple of players (Trey McBride and Jonathan Taylor) whose salaries are so far above everyone else at their positions. McBride at $6,800 has only Brock Bowers within $1,300 of him and Bowers is in an extremely difficult matchup. Taylor is still priced up at $10k (he’s earned it) and is $1,500 and $1,700 more than Bijan and Gibbs. The ceilings for these players are massive, however, and they can put up scores that you have to have fairly easily. That aspect of the slate is lurking in the background ready to trample the dreams of those building elsewhere. Obviously JT’s salary in particular is hard to fit or justify, but he has scores of 40.4 and 52 in his last three games and is fresh off a bye in a competitive game and matchup that isn’t great but isn’t tough by any means.
The other aspect of this slate that is unique is the three clear spots that stand out at first glance but it isn’t quite clear how to attack them. The Cardinals have been smashing in the passing game but have a tough matchup against a team that isn’t likely to build a huge lead forcing massive volume like they’ve seen in recent weeks, while their salaries have risen significantly. The Eagles face a Cowboys defense that seems to have improved. The Patriots face the Bengals, but there is uncertainty in their RB and TE usage – which is where the Bengals get roasted – and it is hard to trust any Pats WRs. Finally, we have the Lions who seem likely to dominate the Giants, but play again on Thursday in a huge divisional game which makes it hard to see some of their guys (especially the expensive ones) getting much work down the stretch. All of it makes it that much more important to have a great feel for the context of the slate and build with conviction – which is what we are here for!!
This week we have a lot of spots where we could see extremely high team point totals::
Some of those spots are more fragile than others, but the fact remains that there are enough situations this week that have high scoring potential for specific teams that we could easily see a couple of these teams go over 40 points. When that happens, the feasts can come in a variety of ways. Sometimes, “everyone eats”. Other times, a couple players hog the production and become dominant plays that week.
Which TWO teams this week do you think are the most likely to get up into that 40-point range? And if it happens, do you think it will result in massive individual performances or just solid production from everyone?
