Thursday, Sep 19th

Sunday/Monday NFL Bets: Week One

Every week, I go through game totals, spreads, and player props, looking to find the best NFL bets so I can share them with you. Good luck this week!

Player Props:

CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.5 Receptions

This seems insanely low, considering that Lamb is going to see ten or more targets on a weekly basis. The Cowboys offense is pass first, and Lamb is the number one option. They force-feed him the ball, and I would look to see if you can set a custom prop and bump it up to OVER 8.5 to get better odds!

Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 Receptions

All he did last season was set a rookie record for receptions. I do think that with Cooper Kupp back and healthy, Puka won’t make as many catches this season, but I would be very surprised if he had many or any games with under six receptions. This weeks matchup vs. the Lions will be high-scoring, and you should expect Puka to see anywhere from 8-12 targets in the passing game. 

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 1.5 TD Passes

Tua and the Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and they are at their best when they are at home and when the weather is warm. Any completion to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane can be taken to the house. They face the Jags on Sunday, whose pass defense ranked 26th in the NFL last season.

Josh Allen OVER 0.5 Rush TD

Josh Allen is the Buffalo Bills offense. When they get down in the red zone, he is their top option running the football, and the Bills should score plenty of points this weekend against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed per game last season and 32nd in rushing yards allowed. 

**If you decide to play all four player props in a parlay, the current odds are +675**

The Big Gamble:

Breece Hall 2+ TDs (+550)

Hall is one of the top RBs in the league and has a chance to be a TD machine this season in the Aaron Rodgers led offense. When the Jets get into the red zone, and things get tight, especially against a tough defense like the 49ers, they will hand the ball off to Breece, and it could lead to multiple TD scores. 

The Long Shot:

Cade Stover to have 1+ TD and Texans Win (+1600 on BetOnline)

Stover is a rookie who was drafted by the Texans because he is a former college teammate of QB C.J. Stroud. Stover isn’t expected to be the starting TE; however, inside the 5-10 yard line, the Texans could go to a two-TE set and run play action, which could leave Stover open in the end zone. It’s a long shot because we don’t even know how often Stover will be on the field or if he will see any targets. The Texans winning is another interesting part of this equation. They are favored, but imagine Stover gets the TD, and then the Texans lose the game! That extra wrinkle makes this even more of a long shot, but that’s why the odds payout so well! 

**If you want to get REALLY crazy, you could combine the big gamble and the long shot at +11300**

Parlay: 

ML: Bengals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Bills (+262)

Usually, I would have some bets on the spread or over/under on the totals, but week one is always strange and unpredictable. So, for this week, I decided to find four games in which I feel pretty confident about who will win. The Seahawks and Bengals are the two I feel best about, and I have them as my top two choices in Survivor leagues because of them. All these teams play at home this weekend against inferior opponents, and they should be able to win!