Sunday Crunch is an Inner Circle feature that can be found late on Saturday nights and non-IC members can receive a chunk of the content each week. Mike also posts updated thoughts to Discord on Sunday mornings for Inner Circle members.
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The Seahawks are likely to be without their top three running backs this week, leaving them with Travis Homer and Tony Jones as their top options at the position. Homer is a pass catching specialist and Geno Smith is the league’s most accurate quarterback. We should see Seattle throw the ball on a very high percentage of their plays and Carolina’s opponents have had the 4th highest amount of plays per game this season. Smith and Homer are great plays, and DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant should also have a lot of opportunities to put up points against a middling to poor Panthers defense. I love stacking up the Seahawks offense this week and even bringing it back with at least one of DJ Moore or D’Onta Foreman from the Carolina side.
Obviously, we always need to be looking at matchups, game environments, and data points as we examine plays in certain weeks. However, sometimes it becomes necessary to “zoom out” and find spots where players have performed well below their usual expectations and take a blind leap of faith in things correcting. I will be doing just that this week with Mike Evans. Since 2019, Evans ranks 2nd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns. During the 2020 and 2021 seasons, with Tom Brady as his quarterback, Evans averaged a touchdown once every 8.3 targets. Over the last eight games, Evans has had 68 targets without a touchdown. Based on his past performance, we would have expected Evans to score EIGHT touchdowns during that span. The Bucs offense is not what it was in past seasons and this game isn’t expected to be high-scoring, but Evans has a low salary for his talent and will likely be under 2% owned. I’m willing to bet on his talent correcting his recent performance in a game where the Bucs might have to throw 45+ times.
Permanent Price Bump coming at the end of Week 2!
Lock in the lower price for life!
