Thursday, Dec 8th
Bye Week:
Saints
Colts
Commanders
Packers
Bears
Falcons

Sunday Crunch 10.22

Sunday Crunch is an Inner Circle feature that can be found late on Saturday nights and non-IC members can receive a chunk of the content each week. Mike also posts updated thoughts to Discord on Sunday mornings for Inner Circle members.

Davante’s Inferno::

Things are close to a breaking point in Las Vegas as their season circles the drain. I don’t think most people realize just how good Davante Adams has been recently or the potential he has in the immediate future. He had a terrible game against the Saints, which we can attribute mostly to his severe illness that week. If we ignore that game, his average line in the last four games is 7.5 receptions for 117 yards and one touchdown. That line would be worth 28.2 points on Draftkings and 21.5 points on Fanduel. Again, that is an average. Adams just (rightfully) called out the Raiders coaching staff for going away from things that are working and will now move into the slot much more often with Hunter Renfrow on IR. The perception of Adams in the DFS community isn’t as high as it probably should be due to a slowish start and a couple of bad games at high ownership this season. However, with Renfrow and Darren Waller on IR and Adams sure to be featured as a “squeaky wheel” and used as a moveable chess piece like he was in Green Bay, he could be in line for a crazy run in the coming weeks.

Winning At DFS In A Nutshell::

The last time we saw Tony Pollard, he was smashing the Bears defense for 147 total yards and three touchdowns at monstrous ownership. That game was played without Ezekiel Elliott, but the reality is that Elliott’s absence really didn’t change that much about Pollard’s role. Pollard only had 15 opportunities in that game and he had 14 in each of the two prior games. He also only played 53% of the snaps and none of his touchdowns were of the “goal line” variety, coming from 7, 18, and 54 yards away – which tells us he doesn’t need Ezekiel Elliott inactive to have a monster game. Elliott is still battling a knee injury and will likely be wearing a knee brace. It was a knee injury last season that made Elliott look sloth-like as well. While the Cowboys coaches and front office are saying all the right things in regard to Zeke, the reality is that Pollard’s performance and Elliott’s health have to change their approach somewhat. 15 to 18 touches for Pollard seems very reasonable here in an elite matchup against a defense that is losing key players. Pollard is likely going to have 20-30x less ownership this week than he had in that matchup against the Bears while likely having a similar role and opportunity. This is pretty much exactly the situation we should be looking to exploit in DFS tournaments, especially in a week where there is less certainty or good matchups than usual at the running back position.

Getting Defensive::

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