Sunday Crunch 1.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Value Traps::

Salary constraints always make “searching for value” an important topic for DFS players. When we are able to find players at lower prices than the roles they will be in, we can often open up the upside of our lineups. However, there is a tipping point where “values” become “traps” and an offense can only take so many losses before it begins to cause problems for the offense as a whole.

This week, there are three offenses that have several injury/suspension situations that has led much of the DFS industry to chase these “values” and help them fit in more “studs”. Those offenses are the Ravens, Packers, and Cardinals.

• Ravens:: The Ravens backfield is dealing with injuries and filled with scrap heap RBs who other teams cut. This is leading many people to think that the team will lean on the pass more, but there is another scenario where the offense struggles to move the ball on the road with their greatest strength potentially being neutralized.
• Packers:: After the loss of Davante Adams, the Packers have a bottom-tier WR room and will now be without their WR1, Allen Lazard. Their offensive line is also dealing with injured players working their way back. While everyone chases the value here, this could be a tough divisional matchup for the Packers, who were destroyed Week 1 of 2021 by the Saints.
• Cardinals:: I have my doubts about Marquise Brown as a lead wide receiver, particularly against a good Chiefs pass defense. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore is injured. It’s going to be a struggle for the Cardinals to move the ball as Zach Ertz is old and hobbled and James Conner is solid, but usually gets his production from exploiting openings created by the rest of the offense. Arizona could get routed here, like the last time we saw them against the Rams in the playoffs.

All of these situations have greater “collapse” potential than most of the field will realize, and in my opinion the “value” players are more likely to break those who use them than they are to break those who fade them.

Getting Defensive::

Building off our last point, the Vikings and Chiefs defenses are both relatively cheap on all DFS sites and are sitting in great position to exploit high profile, but depleted, offenses. If everyone is clamoring over themselves to play the cheap players on the Packers and Cardinals, you gain instant leverage by betting against them when you play the opposing defense. Wheels up.

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