Storyboard #7

Written by :: Mike Johnson

Published – 8/30/23

My weekly “Storyboard” articles are a deep dive into the thought process I use when building a best ball tournament roster. My approach is different than many, as I am not concerned about my overall player exposures and I view each draft as its own entity where I try to tell a “story” of how the NFL season could play out that would be “outside the normal line of thinking/expectation”, but also “doesn’t take a huge leap of faith.” These exercises are a dive into the decision-making process and should help show how each decision made throughout a draft influences the outlook for that roster going forward. Below is a summary of a draft I did on August 13th for the $20 Drafters Million contest on www.Drafters.com: 

Drafters Scoring/Settings::

• Drafters format has NO PLAYOFFS. The format is cumulative points for 17 weeks
• This means Week 17 correlations can be thrown out the window
• 20 man rosters, same as Draftkings
• PPR scoring, like Draftkings, but NO BONUSES for 100 yards rush/rec or 300 yards passing

Picking from the 3rd slot

1.03 — Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC — As I talked about last week, unique early-round pairings can give us a TON of value. After Jefferson and Chase are gone I have a decision to make. Ekeler isn’t the “optimal” pick here based on my rankings or most projections, but in terms of winning the tournament, I’m going to zag early.

2.10 — Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI — Snagging Hurts here is what makes the “reach” on Ekeler a “+EV” proposition. The respective ADPs of Hurts and Ekeler result in extremely low combinatorial ownership, and if these two lead their respective positions then I’m now chasing six other spots to aggregate high-end production from 16 draft spots.

3.03 — DK Metcalf, WR, SEA — I decided to pass on Mark Andrews here but it isn’t because I’m down on Andrews. TJ Hockenson’s ADP has tanked the last couple of weeks as he has been sitting out camp with minor “injuries” in search of a new contract. He’ll get better and play, and his current ADP is about a round and a half below where I think his true value lies. Because of that, I’m taking a high-upside WR here and banking on getting Hock in the 4th or 5th.

4.10 & 5.03 — TJ Hockenson, TE, MIN and Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT — I already explained the Hockenson pick. As for Diontae, I didn’t take a WR in the first or second round, which means I am going to be relying on a lot of higher variance players at the position. Johnson has ranked top 6 in the league in targets each of the last three years, making him extremely valuable for this roster.

6.10 & 7.03 — Zay Flowers, WR, BAL and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA — OK, so here’s the theory I talked about earlier. My plan at RB is to “bet” on Ekeler as the RB1. For my second RB position, I’m going to take one RB in the 11-15th round (whenever the best value appears available) and then take RBs with my final five picks – basically betting on those six combining to fill that “RB2 silo.” I’ll take a “backup” QB and TE somewhere in the 11th-15th range. That means I’ll be hammering WR for the foreseeable future. JSN pairs nicely with Metcalf and appears that he will avoid the PUP list (meaning he’s likely back in the first 2-3 weeks of the year). I passed on Andrews earlier, so I’m taking Flowers here and will try to get one of Bateman/OBJ in my next round of picks.

8.10 & 9.03 — Kadarius Toney, WR, KC and Odell Beckham Jr., WR, BAL — I’m not a huge fan of either of these players on their own, but for this roster, they make sense. Both are attached to likely high scoring offenses. Beckham gives me a second “out” on a BAL WR and Toney doubles down on the “Hockenson TE1” bet I’ve made (if that happens, Kelce may have struggled and Toney could easily be the benefactor). I’m also willing to take a shot on Toney on this specific roster where I already know I’m going to end with 9 WRs. He can be a ghost for most of the year but if I get 4-5 games where he’s getting a lot of targets from Mahomes, it’s more than worth it.

10.10 & 11.03 — Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN and Jakobi Meyers, WR, LVR — After taking the upside WRs the last four rounds, time to get some stability in my life. Both of these guys are solid real life WRs who should consistently be involved in their team’s offenses. Remember that I’m assuming top-end production from QB, RB1, and TE spots, so now I’m optimizing for my 4 WR/Flex spots during this part of the draft and the 11-15 point weeks that these two may consistently provide will actually have a decent amount of value.

12.10 & 13.03 — Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF and KJ Osborn, WR, MIN — When I selected Ekeler, I passed on CMC. Part of Ekeler ending the year as RB1 likely involves CMC either surrendering work to another RB or missing time due to injury. In either circumstance, Mitchell is the clear beneficiary. Imagine CMC misses a big chunk of time. What is Mitchell’s expected production then??? That’s the type of thing that wins tournaments. Osborn is a perfect addition to this WR corps as he should play a lot for a high volume passing offense, but will certainly have some peaks and valleys along the way.

14.10 & 15.03 — Adam Thielen, WR, CAR and Ezekiel Elliott, RB, NE — Talk about a trip down memory lane. These are a couple of savvy vets. I intended on being done taking WRs after Osborn (my 9th), but couldn’t pass on the potential top WR option on a team given my lack of true top-end WR talent. Now that I’ve got 10 WRs, I’m only going to end up with 6 RBs which means I should take one here. I haven’t taken Zeke much this year, but he “fits” here. I just need a few decent weeks if the rest of this roster is playing out as expected.

16.10 & 17.03 — Deuce Vaughn, RB, DAL and CJ Stroud, QB, HOU — I have five picks left, and I need to take 3 RBs, 1 QB, and 1 TE. I know I’ll have decent chances to take similar TEs to what is currently available in the last three rounds so I’m passing on that. I start with Vaughn as he’s a truly impressive player with just one clear flaw (size). Again, I’m just trying to fill one RB slot with five RBs so a player like him who could have some great bursts throughout the season is perfect. My QB1 (Hurts) has a Week 10 bye. I need my QB2 to still be starting when we get there. Stroud, the #2 overall pick in the NFL draft, will not be benched unless he’s severely injured this year. I can’t say the same about the other QBs on the board.

18.10 & 19.03 — Deon Jackson, RB, IND and Taysom Hill, TE, NO — Jackson appears to be the top RB option for the Colts without Jonathan Taylor. We’ll see what happens there, but I’m happy to be on him for my RB group that is working to fill the RB2 slot. Taysom’s ADP has dropped 3-4 rounds since he had a minor oblique injury two weeks ago. Hill had SEVEN weeks scoring double digits last season, and we expect the Saints offense to be better this year. I’ll gladly take the discount and bet on his spike weeks complementing Hockenson’s down weeks and bye.

20.03 — Pierre Stong, RB, CLE — The Browns just made a move for Strong and he now joins a backfield with a ton of contingent value and very little competition behind Nick Chubb. Having him fall in my lap here is an absolute gift for the type of team I’ve built.

Final Roster:

“Positional Silos” – The stories I am telling that fill out the positions on my roster and give me a chance to rise to the top.

QB — Hurts has another high end season and rides the “tush push” play to a ton of rushing TDs. Stroud adds a few points along the way.

RB1 — Ekeler repeats.

TE1 — Hockenson repeats last year’s usage after the trade to MIN. Taysom’s few TDs and spike week or two complement well to provide max value at the position.

WR1-3 & Flex —

• Diontae is a consistent high-volume player whose score is counting almost every week.
• Multiple WRs from BAL and SEA should complement each other and *most* weeks I should get at least a usable score from both pairs. 
• Boyd/Meyers/Thielen raise the overall floor of the group. They are locked in starters who should have a few games each with 8 to 10 targets.
• Toney/Osborn will be on the field enough for good enough offenses to provide some spikes.
• This group is built in such a way that I should always be able to get 3 to 4 reasonable scores and there are a lot of paths to spike weeks.

RB2 — Mitchell, Elliott, Vaughn, Jackson, Strong. The riskiest “bet” on this roster is banking on this group consistently giving me one guy with 12-15 points, and a few 20 point weeks mixed in. I like how the group works together. Elliott and Jackson should have involvement and contribute early in the year. Vaughn and Strong are likely to need some time to work into some roles. Mitchell should get some touches early on but it will take a CMC injury for him to have consistent volume – that being said, his offense should score enough that he can put up 15+ points even when CMC is healthy.