Thursday, Sep 21st

Storyboard #4

Written by :: Mike Johnson

Doubling Down

Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made. 

At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right”. While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on the day the Draftkings NFL Best Ball $10M Millionaire contest opened.

Picking from 9th slot

1.09: Travis Kelce — I don’t have Kelce on many teams to this point because of where he usually goes and where I have him ranked. I also talked in one of my pods on the theory behind why I generally don’t draft him often. That being said, at the 9th spot he makes sense here.

2.04: Saquon Barkley — Not much to disect here. My 12th ranked player at the 16th pick. Starting TE // RB isn’t typical for me, so it will be interesting to see how the board falls between now and my next pick to see what direction I go from here.

3.09: Breece Hall — I have moved Hall up my rankings aggressively in the last couple of weeks. If he has a healthy 2023 season, he’s very likely a 1st round pick in 2024. I want to be ahead of this, and his return from ACL surgery should have him getting stronger as the season wears on.

4.04: TJ Hockenson — Things are getting weird here. I have now started with 2 RBs and 2 TEs. While this may seem like a ridiculous start, I would argue that at both positions it would not be shocking for the two players I drafted to finish 1-2 at their positions. I now have an extremely unique build and player combination to start my draft. This also means that I won’t be drafting any other TE’s and probably only draft 3 more RB’s. 

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