Thursday, Sep 21st

Storyboard #2

Written by :: Mike Johnson

Blind Squirrel TE Strategy

Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made. 

At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on the day the Draftkings NFL Best Ball $10M Millionaire contest opened.

Picking from 12th slot

Picks 1.12 & 2.01: AJ Brown and Ceedee Lamb — I loved getting two high end WR’s at the turn here as these two are both in my second tier of wide receivers. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor were available here as well, but I decided to take the two WRs because I love doubling up (taking two players from the same position) on picks at the turn and there are some solid RB’s that I am high on in the Rounds 6-12 range that I expect to have their ADP’s rise as the season draws nearer.

Picks 3.12 & 4.01: Justin Fields and DK Metcalf — Fields is the 6th QB off the board at this point, so I love getting his upside after so many of my counterparts took their first QB. 

Metcalf is a polarizing player, but I specifically like rostering him on a team like this where there are two other stud WRs who should contribute good weeks consistently, helping the team stay strong even through Metcalf’s inevitable down weeks. I also went this direction because Andrews and Hockenson were both off the board, so I’ll be using my “Blind Squirrel” strategy at the tight end position by taking four of them late. I expect a couple of solid RB’s to be on the board at the 5/6 turn. 

<< Add Access >>

BB+ 2023