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Storyboard #1

Written by :: Mike Johnson

Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made. 

At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on the day the Draftkings NFL Best Ball $10M Millionaire contest opened.

Picking from 5th slot

Round 1, 1.05: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR – I was on the fence between Kupp, Tyreek, Bijan, or Ekeler. Ultimately decided that 1) I wanted to go WR here because based on how the rankings look, I like the RBs I could take at 2.08 more than the WR’s that will likely be available there (I usually don’t ever want to go first 2 picks w/o a WR in this full PPR format) and 2) I can stack Stafford with Kupp for a pick 5 rounds later than I can stack Tua with Tyreek.

Round 2, 2.08: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL – I am glad I made the WR pick in the first round, as Pollard is a tier above all the other remaining RB’s on the board here. Side note, the Cowboys play the Rams at some point this year. As Hilow noted in his first Underdog Wednesday theory pod, we don’t know the schedules yet, but we can take some educated guesses. I could potentially have some correlation at some point during the playoffs with Pollard/Kupp.

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