Starts & Fades 5.24

This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value. 

“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment this week.

“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity.

Bye weeks begin this week, further stressing the back end of our starting lineups. Week 5 teams on bye: Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Titans.

Here are a few of my suggested starts and fades for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season with notes on my thought process included:

QB

Start: Trevor Lawrence, JAX (vs IND)

• Lawrence has been struggling this season for the winless Jags. He’s completing just 53.3% of his passes for only 6.0 yards per attempt. Both figures rank among the worst in the league.
• The Jags have one of the highest implied team totals this week (24.75) in a home game against the Colts. The Indy defense has been fantasy-friendly for opposing QBs this season, allowing the sixth-most passing yards and nearly 8.0 per pass attempt to opponents; they have faced Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Malik Willis, and C.J. Stroud.
• The Jags’ top draft pick, WR Brian Thomas Jr., leads the team in receiving and already looks like a great pick in this year’s loaded rookie WR class. Well-paid slot WR Christian Kirk has 15 catches over the past two weeks after having a single catch in each of the team’s first two games. Pass-catching TE Evan Engram has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury but does seem close to a return and is considered day-to-day.
• I’m going back to Lawrence this week as a back-end starter in single-QB leagues based on his ascending pass-catching talent and a great matchup with a Colts defense that has been generous to opposing QBs.

Fade:  Baker Mayfield, TB (at ATL on TNF)

• Baker is a top-five fantasy QB in most formats through four weeks throwing to his excellent complement of pass catchers and adding a pair of rushing TDs.
• Tampa travels to play at Atlanta on a short week tonight on Thursday Night Football as 1.5-point underdogs in a game with a middling implied total (44.0). 
• The Falcons have held opponents under 200 passing yards per game and have really kept big plays in check, allowing only three passing TDs (T-5th in the league) and four passes of 20+ yards (best in the league) this season. For full disclosure, Atlanta’s defense is also dead last in the league with four sacks.
• Baker has been awesome, and a road game, indoors, against Atlanta’s limited pass rush is honestly not a terrible spot. I simply have Baker outside of my top 12 at the position this week in a middling matchup against a Falcons team that seems capable of limiting explosive passes.

RB

Start: Kareem Hunt, KC (vs NO)

• Hunt led the Chiefs backfield last week after Carson Steele’s fumble, pacing KC RBs with 14-69-0 rushing. He added two catches for 16 yards.
• The Chiefs host the Saints this week on Monday Night Football. The game has a middling implied point total (43.5) but the Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites – the third-largest favorite this week – leading to a strong implied team total (24.5).
• Fun fact, two of the three players that have scored TD’s against the Saints’ defense this season are the elite of the NFL elite: Saquon Barkley (x2) and CeeDee Lamb, with Bryce Young being the third. I found that interesting when researching, but it also reiterates that New Orleans has been in some weird game scripts, having blown out Carolina and Dallas as well as losing to Atlanta last week without allowing an offensive TD.
• Hunt looks likely to lead the Chiefs in RB opportunities in a home game on MNF, where they are the third-largest favorite of the week. I’m playing him as a RB2 in all formats in a week where we are missing both Detroit RBs, Saquon, J.K. Dobbins, Tony Pollard, and Tyjae Spears from our lineups. 

Fade: Rhamondre Stevenson, NEP (vs MIA)

• Stevenson came out of gates strong this season, handing 20+ carries for 80+ yards each of the first two weeks and scoring a TD each game. Since, he has only 19 carries for 66 scoreless yards.
• The Patriots host Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins this week as one-point favorites in a game with a pathetic 36.5-point implied total, the second lowest of the week.
• Stevenson has fumbled four times in as many games, and his HC, Jerod Mayo, might be getting fed up. Mayo has mentioned getting backup RB Antonio Gibson (never the poster child for ball security himself) more involved or affording him a start  due to Rhamondre’s fumbling.
• I’m stashing Stevenson on benches this week if at all possible. While talented, his main calling card for fantasy was going to be strong volume, even if on a bad offense. If his touches are now in question, I can’t start him in what projects as one of the two saddest game environments of Week 5.

WR

Start: Amari Cooper, CLE (at WAS)

• Through four weeks, Cooper is outside of the top 36 WRs in PPR scoring despite being among the league leaders in targets (37). He’s had eight or more targets each week and has just missed on some big plays, including an 80+ yard TD called back due to a questionable holding penalty last week.
• The Browns head to Washington this week as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a middling implied point total (44.5).
• The Commanders’ defense has struggled against opposing passing games and especially WRs. They’ve allowed a league-high 10 TD passes this year, all caught by opposing WRs.
• Despite his struggles, I’m sticking with Amari as a WR2 this week in a great matchup against Washington’s secondary.

Fade:  Jordan Addison, MIN (vs NYJ)

• Addison was drafted as a fantasy starter in 12-team leagues and had a solid return to the Vikings’ lineup last week after missing two games, going 3-72-1 in a win against the Packers.
• The Vikings host the Jets and their stifling pass defense in a game with one of the lowest implied point totals (40.5) this week. 
• The Jets have allowed the third-fewest passing yards (603) and the third-fewest passing TDs (two) this season, most notably holding QB Brock Purdy to 231 scoreless yards in Week 1 (to be fair, their other opponents, TEN/NE/DEN, have had pretty poor passing game outlooks against any opponent).
• I’m keeping Addison on benches if I can this week due to his tough matchup against the Jets’ secondary and an underwhelming game environment in general.

TE

With the current state of injuries and lack of production at TE I don’t have recommended starts or fades at the position. This week, we are also missing two of the few capable TE starters with Sam LaPorta and Dallas Goedert on their bye weeks.

If you are in need of a fill-in at TE, these were my top waiver suggestions from Monday’s column. All remain available in more than half of Yahoo leagues as of Wednesday afternoon:

• Tucker Kraft (GB) – Kraft was the fantasy TE1 last week and looks like he could be a long-term answer for fantasy managers at TE this season.
• Tyler Conklin (NYJ) –  Full-time player catching passes from an all-time great QB.
• Colby Parkinson (LAR) – Another full-time player catching passes from another all-time great QB.
• Cade Otton (TB) –  Full-time player catching passes from one of the top fantasy QBs so far this season.

Join us Friday for Week 5 Start/Sit Questions!