Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
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Raiders @ Rams

DFS Showdown Strategy

By: Xandamere


Outlook

The way this game is likely to play out is for the Rams to try to run, run, and run early on (they have one of the lowest passing play percentages in the NFL since Stafford went out). The Raiders are likely to be able to build a lead here, but the likeliest outcome is not a complete blowout, which should allow the Rams to keep to their run-happy ways until fairly late in the game. Of course, there are other ways the game could go.

Potential Scenarios
  • The Raiders blowing out the Rams is of course on the table as a completely reasonable option. Duh. But, what if the Raiders flop in a road game on a short week? We’ve seen that plenty of times over the years and I expect very, very few people will be playing 4-2 or 5-1 Rams stacks (I would consider the Rams D a near-lock in those builds).
  • What if the game goes over? As in, what if the Raiders win as expected, but the Rams are able to keep pace throughout? We’re not likely to see a full-on shootout here, but given the Raiders defensive ineptitude (they’ve allowed 23 to the Broncos, 20 to the Texans, and 25 to the Colts – not exactly world-beating offenses this year), we could see two or three touchdowns from the Rams and I don’t think most of the field is going to be building around that kind of outcome.
Jacobs / Davante Pricing

One of the big questions on this slate will be around Jacobs and Davante. They’re the two strongest plays on the slate but they’re also the most expensive, and if you captain Davante and also want to play Jacobs, you only have $18,400 left for your four remaining roster slots (add Carr and you’re down to $8,200 for three slots). Given that pricing, I think builds that have one of Davante/Jacobs at captain but also have the other in the flex, especially with Carr as well, are going to be quite low owned because it’s just hard to make those rosters work in a way that doesn’t feel somewhat nauseating, so I want to be overweight on that. What I expect to be popular is a cheaper captain that includes them both in the flex, so if you’re willing to embrace some risk, you could consider not allowing Davante or Jacobs to both be in flex spots on the same roster but allow them both to be paired if one is in the captain spot. That’s risky, but I think it’s a way to achieve some smart differentiation. 

Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of Carr, the Rams QB, Davante, Jacobs, the kickers, and I think Cole is totally fine as a value punt if needed. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, the clear best captains are Davante and Jacobs (in that order), and in this case, they’re mine too, with additional captain interest in Akers/Kyren (no idea which but I think I want to be overweight on both), Hollins, and Higbee. 


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