For the last 2 years, the Props Insider team has captured over $35k for our Props Insiders Fam!
And the best part…
WE ALL WIN AT THE SAME TIME!
In true OWS Form, we want to teach you how to fish when it comes to Props Betting.
Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors.
Caution: Sometimes the odds will have moved and sometimes they are still in range. We highly urge caution as the odds changing can turn a +EV bet to a negative one.
(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)
– DK/Cz -135
– Kambi -129
– Offshore -132
– Good to -140, not a lot of room
“LV is a 5 point favorite at home. Carolina has seen just 22 attempts per game against, 2 of which to the slot where Meyers operates at a 50%+ clip, while LV has been fast and pass leaning and looking to get back to their identity. This looks like a perfect game to establish it.
Panthers are playing top 10 rates of zone, which Meyers has just a 10% target share, and there probably isnt enough Pass game work to support Adams, Meyers, and the Brock Bowers\ break out.” – Jreasy
Current line as of Saturday Noon ET = ________ a CLV of ___________
-110 DK
-114 FD
-115 CZ, would take down to probably 40.5 at modest juice.
This is a bet that’s a combination of role and game environment. First, Javonte has 19 carries on the season, so 9-10 per game. He averages 2.1 yards per carry so far and on 9-10 carries would already be a slight underdog to beat this line. We’ve seen McLaughlin eating into his role, and with how poorly he’s run, I think there’s more downside than upside to his workload on the ground.
Broncos have also been atrociously bad on offense and are on the road facing the Bucs, who are a solid D (especially against the run) as 6.5 point underdogs.
DK+100
Cz -101
FD -102
Kambi and B365 +105.
The Browns defence holds the 3rd lowest CPOE (Completion percentage over expectation) while seeing 31 attempts per game, allowing an average of just 16.5 completions to Lawrence and Dak (53%). Jones attempts line is 31, but completions juice to the 19. 19/31 (62%). Jones has completed just 54% of his passes this year despite playing the king maker Washington pass defence in Week 2. The Browns play the 3rd most man in the NFL through 2 weeks, which Naber’s has dominated in a small sample size, but also will give jones more opportunities to pull the ball down and take off instead of checking it down
DK/Cz -125
Offshore -127
FD -128
Best on Kambi at -115. Good to -135.
Lawrence has completed 12 and 14 passes over the first two weeks of the season. They lost both games. He’s also been sacked 7 times. Both Jax and Buf have -PROE and Buffalo has shown a willingness to run the rock when ahead to drain clock, shortening the game and possessions for the other team. Engram appears to be out again this week, opening up more deeper aDot looks for Gabe Davis and BTJ. Kirk has seen just a 10% target share vs zone, a scheme the Bills play at a top ten rate, limiting easy dump offs. This feels like a game where both teams are unlikely to push the pace and keep the ball on the ground.
-106 Cz
Offshore -111
DK -115
FD -120. Good to -130.
First things first, this is a CeeDee Lamb game. Baltimore runs the 11th most man defence in 2024, a scheme Lamb has a 52%+ target share through 2 games, leaving just a 6% share and 1 reception for Cooks. We should also see TE Jake Ferguson back to move the chains and soak up some volume. Jalen Tolbert may be breaking out and passing Cooks in the pecking order (age 30 season) and earning more targets, while the RBs have absorbed 14 targets on the season.
CeeDee has played 60% of his snaps in the slot this year, but thats the tougher path with Baltimore getting beat more on the outside. If Cooks is asked to increase his 25% slot share, were in a great spot.
