Papy’s Pieces 8.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The football gods have seen fit to give us a 13 game slate in the middle of the season. Somewhat amazingly, there isn’t a game with a total north of 50. 
• The highest total games KC // DEN (47), NE // MIA (47), and LAR // DAL (45.5), all of which have at least a touchdown spread. 
• This is an incredibly unique week in that there are a ton of choices, but no clear game environments to target.  
• This sets up as a week to forget about totals and look for sneaky shootouts. There are enough games on this slate that at least one of them is going to blow up, and it’s likely to be a game that sails way over its projected total.
• This is also a great week to try and find games with high upside possibilities, even if those outcomes aren’t the most likely to occur.

Pawn – QB Kenny Pickett ($4,900)

Full disclosure, this is not a high confidence play but it fits the spirit of what I mentioned earlier in The Board. The Steelers run a proverbial “middle school” offense and the Jaguars have been good on defense, which makes the most likely outcome another ugly Steelers game where they try to win on defense. But what about a less likely outcome? The Jaguars are a good defensive team but they filter targets to WRs and have given up over 280 yards passing five times this year.  There is nothing about Pickett’s season that should make you want to roster him, but $4,900 is the type of price we see on backup QBs making a spot start. Kenny is still a regular starter, playing at home, and has two clear stacking partners in George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. Early ownership projections show Pickett drawing some interest, and if that’s the case, I’ll look elsewhere, but I can’t see the field being excited to play a QB who is yet to top 18 DK points. If Kenny puts up over 20 DK points for the first time this season, it’s highly likely that this game is over-performing expectations. That’s a good thing because the Jags are also highly concentrated on offense. Etienne // Ridley // Kirk are all good choices as bring back options, with Kirk being my favorite of the bunch.

Honorable Mention – RB Devin Singletary ($4,400)

I never include honorable mentions but Singletary deserves to be singled out as a potential tournament gem. He saw 53% of the snaps before the Texans bye and has outplayed Dameon Pierce.  There is a chance the Texans used the bye week to adjust, and Singletary comes out as a 60% plus snap rate player. If that happens, he’s a steal at his price, in a great matchup, with no ownership. There is a lot of risk involved with Singletary, but he is also a great GPP play this week.

Knight – WR Christian Watson ($5,100)

Featured as one of last week’s pieces, Watson burned a lot of otherwise nice looking lineups for me. It hurt, but what hurt worse was seeing the ownership on Love + Watson stacks. Projected to be relatively low owned, they were anything but, both becoming chalk. After hurting a large portion of the field, Watson is currently projected to carry under 10% ownership. He has just as much upside this week as he did last week, if not more. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league, and while Jordan Love hasn’t shown he handles pressure well, he has shown that he’s willing to take shots downfield (second in intended air yards). The Vikings have allowed the most catches to WRs in the league, and Watson can pay off his price with one big play. He also pairs nicely in game stacks with Jordan Addison ($5,700) who is too cheap for his role without Justin Jefferson. Watson has shown very little this year, but he’s the type of player who can burn the blitz, and I’m willing to bet this is the week he gets behind the defense.

Bishop – TE George Kittle ($5,400)