Papy’s Pieces 7.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 7 has five top tier games in DET/MIN (50.5), HOU/GB (48), KC/SF (47), SEA/ATL (51), and CAR/WAS (51.5). All of these carry desirable totals.
• The middle tier has three games in MIA/IND (43.5), PHI/NYG (43), and LV/AR (43.5). All of these expected to produce a middling number of points.
• The bottom tier is only two games in CIN/CLE (41.5) and TEN/BUF (41). Both are expected to be low scoring.

Pawn – TE David Njoku ($4,100)

The Browns lost a ton of targets when they traded away Amari Cooper and someone is going to have to pick up the slack. All of Jerry Jeudy ($4,800), Elijah Moore ($3,200), Cedric Tillman ($3,000) and Njoku are underpriced for their opportunity. Moore/Tillman are the two cheapest viable players on the slate so they must be considered for salary purposes but I don’t see them being the guys who soak up all the extra work, leaving Jeudy and Njoku. There is a good chance one of Jeudy or Njoku gets double digit targets, and since Njoku is cheaper and plays TE, he gets the nod as this week’s pawn. The Bengals haven’t been good against TEs (25^th in DVOA against the position) and Njoku is priced cheap enough to offer some salary relief on a slate without many good value options. The Browns offense has been abysmal, which adds risk to Njoku but the Browns have one of the highest pass rates in the league and this is another game where they should be chasing points. I’m going to use Njoku as a one off to save salary and hope that he is the guy who ends up with most of the targets vacated by Cooper.

Knight – QB Daniel Jones ($5,400)

Is it time for Danny Dimes? We haven’t seen it yet but we all know Danny has the dimes in him. This week is tight on salary so going cheap at QB is one way to try and save a few bucks. Jones hasn’t been good this year but he is using his legs (22 rushing attempts over the past two weeks) which has given him some semblance of a floor. Malik Nabers ($7,500) looks ready to return, and that should give the Giants passing attack a boost. The Eagles have been cooked (32^nd in DVOA) by the WR1 and Nabers should be up to the task of continuing the trend. Nabers has been a target hog when healthy which makes him an easy choice as a stacking partner with Jones. Jones hasn’t been great but he always looks that way until he explodes. He hasn’t dropped his signature 30-point game yet this season so maybe this is the week. I’m going to use Jones throughout my lineups mostly stacked with Nabers and hope that we see Danny Dimes show up for the first time this season.

Bishop – RB Tony Pollard ($6,300)