Papy’s Pieces 5.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 5 has a more robust top tier of games than we’ve seen recently. BAL/CIN (49), BUF/HOU (47), IND/JAX (46), AZ/SF (50), and GB/LAR (48.5) all have strong totals.
• There isn’t much of a middle tier of games this week: CLE/WAS (43.5) and NYG/SEA (42.5) are the only two games with totals below 46 and above 42.
• The lower tier is smaller than it has been to start with the season with only three games: CAR/CHI (41), MIA/NE (36), and LV/DEN (36) rounding out the bottom. 

Pawn – TE Tucker Kraft ($3,500)

It’s pick your Packer week! With Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson set to sit, things are condensed to Jayden Reed ($6,500), Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000), Bo Melton ($3,300), and Kraft. Any of them are viable and I’ll be mixing all of them into my tighter lineups. Kraft gets the nod as the pawn because he’s so cheap, plays TE, and saw 86% of the snaps last week leading to nine targets. It’s hard to find that type of target volume at TE, and with all the injuries to the Packers WRs, Kraft feels as likely as any TE to see targets this week. He’s also priced like a punt, which is always nice at TE. The Rams are also injured, and pairing any of the GB pass catchers with Tutu Atwell ($4,900), Jordan Whittington ($4,600), or Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) makes for easy game stacks. All the passing game options on both sides of this game are mispriced because of injuries, pick your Packer, and consider adding a Ram.

Knight – QB Deshaun Watson ($5,300)

It feels yucky recommending Watson because he has been terrible since signing with the Browns, but this week offers hope for redemption. He’s priced like a punt, has been using his legs (29 rushing yards per game), and gets the pathetic Commanders secondary. The Cardinals refused to pass last week, which was entirely perplexing, but after all the heat the Cardinals took for not attacking the Commanders secondary, it seems even more likely the Browns will have a pass first game plan. Watson hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards this year, but he’s still produced DK scores of 13 // 15 // 18 // 13. None of those are great but Watson is cheap enough that they also wouldn’t totally kill you if the rest of your roster performed. It’s easy to pair Watson with Amari Cooper ($6,200) or Jerry Jeudy ($5,200) who have been his clear favorite targets. Brian Robinson Jr ($6,600) looks truly questionable but if he sits, Austin Ekeler ($5,600) makes a nice bring back on teams that stack the Browns. Watson has a floor because of his rushing and we haven’t seen his ceiling. I don’t have a high confidence level that Watson will post a big game but the potential that he does at what is sure to be light ownership is what could win you a tournament. I won’t go overboard on Watson, but I will absolutely have exposure to him on my tighter builds.

Bishop – WR Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,600)