Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to DFS Week 4! This slate is defined by one high total (MIA/BUF 53.5), one moderately high total (LAC/LV 48.5), and a ton of totals between 43-46. MIA/BUF, while carrying big upside, has a lot of paths to disappointment. The Bills defense is good, the Dolphins are weaker against the run, and neither team has played fast this season. LAC/LV is an appealing spot, with nearly guaranteed high play volume. The Chargers look like “that team” this year who offers a fantasy friendly combination of fast play, strong offense, and bad defense. There is nothing wrong with targeting the Chargers, but is the LAC/LV game THAT much better than the other three games within a field goal of its total? There is a strong probability that the weekly chalk will form heavily around the top two games, when the reality is that there are several other games on this slate that are all capable of producing must-have scores. Throw in that this is the first week where value (at least on DK) is minimal, and it’s shaping up to be a good week to be creative with your builds. With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s pieces!
There are very few players priced below $5,000 on DK who are appealing. That means the few values available are all likely to carry high ownership. Guys like Tank Dell ($4,600), Adam Thielen ($4,500), Josh Palmer ($4,000), Quentin Johnson ($3,700) Josh Downs ($3,500), Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) and Calvin Austin ($3,300) are all predicted to carry double digit ownership. So, what about Chark? He just saw 11 targets (from Andy Dalton) and Bryce Young is going to need to throw against the high-flying Vikings. There is a good chance Chark sees double digit targets in a negative game script, against a Vikings defense that has looked truly bad. Chark has just as much if not more upside than the guys expected to be chalk, but Chark is currently projected to be 1-3% owned.
