Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
For those who follow Papy’s pieces, you’ll know that I typically go cheaper at pawn than a $5,200 dollar player. There were cheaper guys I considered for this spot (Luke Schoonmaker // Jalin Hyatt // Demarcus Robinson // Allen Lazard // Andrei Iosivas // Tyler Johnson // Jalen McMillan) who are all priced below $4,000. Even though I’d prefer to keep my pawn play cheap, Mason is still one of the cheapest playable RBs and is too critical to the slate to leave off the list. Assuming Christian McCaffrey sits, Mason becomes a super obvious, and thusly super chalky play (likely 35-40% owned). Mason is clearly mispriced, benefitting from the Monday night discount, and is coming off a 28-carry game. He’s also playing behind a strong O-line, in one of the best running schemes. The one negative is that he only saw one target, but the 49ers only threw 29 passes in a game they controlled. Still, it doesn’t look likely that he’ll have the same receiving role as CMC, but when you consider that CMC would be priced over $8,000, that hardly matters. The other issue with Mason comes from a strategy standpoint. He’s going to be turbo chalk. That doesn’t matter as much in smaller fields or 50/50 contests, but in large field tournaments, there is a case to be made for the fade and pray. The Vikings defense looked good last week but they were taking on bad Daniel Jones, which is a lot easier than playing the 49ers. Assuming CMC sits, I’ll use Mason on my smaller field teams, while looking to be different in other spots. The same won’t be true for my “Milly Maker only” lineups, where I’ll be more likely to fade him and hope for a brick that hurts a large portion of the field.
Goodwin is the player I’m putting into this space because I think he is the best overall value from the TB @ DET game, but really, this post is representative of the entire game. I could’ve listed any of the primary offensive contributors from either side. Baker Mayfield // Mike Evans // Rachaad White // Jared Goff // Amon Ra St. Brown // Jameson Williams // Sam Laporta // Jahmyr Gibbs // David Montgomery are all in play. I took the time to write that list out to show how many people in this game are useable. I even listed Jalen McMillan as one of my alternate pawns. If there is one game on the slate that can explode to the point where you need to have it over-stacked to win, this is the one.
I’m going to use players from this game throughout my builds, with one of my main lineups dedicated to an over-stack. I’m not sure if that stack will be based on the Bucs (Baker // Evans // Goodwin) with Lions as bring backs, or based on the Lions (Goff // ASRB // Williams // LaPorta) with Bucs as bring backs, but if I had to decide right now, my favorite stack would be Baker // Evans // Goodwin // LaPorta. It is highly likely someone from this game posts a tournament winning score, with the main issue being picking the right guys. The best part? Ownership is projected to be reasonable! Even low! How often can you stack a game with a 51.5 total and have your lineup not end up mega chalk? The fact that Goodwin (16%) is projected to carry the game’s highest ownership is wild. Using current OWS ownership projections: LaPorta (5%), Williams (3%), Evans (4%), Mayfield (6%), and Goff (3%) are going to be criminally under-owned. How can you play Goff // Williams // LaPorta // Evans, in Detroit, with a 51.5 total, and negligible ownership? Ridiculous. Even Gibbs (14%) and White (8%) are far from chalk, with Monty (5%) also being an afterthought. Ownership projections can evolve, but with the strong probability that Jayden Daniels // Cooper Kupp // Breece Hall // Jordan Mason // Kyren Williams // Travis Kelce are all going to be highly owned, things probably won’t drastically change. It usually takes courage to stack a low owned game, but how brave do you have to be to stack the Lions at home, with the highest total of the week, when no one’s looking?
