Papy’s Pieces 18.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The final week of the season has one game that reaches the top tier. CAR/ATL (48) is predicted to be high scoring, with no other games projected within four points of its total.
• The middle tier is small and has four games. JAX/IND (44), WAS/DAL (44), NO/TB (43.5), and SF/AZ (43) all have the potential to produce good fantasy scores, but also all have issues with how motivated the participants will be throughout the game.
• The bottom tier holds most of the slate with eight games. LV/LAC (41.5), CHI/GB (41), KC/DEN (40), MIA/NYJ (39), SEA/LAR (38.5), NYG/PHI (37), BUF/NE (36.5), and HOU/TEN (36.5). All of these games have issues ranging from injuries to team motivation.

Pawn – RB Michael Carter ($4,700)

Carter stepped into a lead role (72% of the snaps) in Week 17 and turned 15 opportunities into 81 total yards. With James Conner and Trey Benson both hitting the IR, there is no reason to believe Arizona will do anything other than use Carter as their every down back to close the season. The 49ers have been generous against the run (25th in DVOA) and have no reason to get up for this game. We know that Carter has always had passing game chops, and with a good chance for 2-5 targets on dump-off plays, plus a realistic shot at 20 carries, it’s impossible to ignore Carter who is still priced near the minimum. He’s not going to sneak up on anyone, but his cheap salary gives you plenty of options to get different at other positions. I’m going to take the free square on Carter.

Knight – QB Joe Flacco ($5,400)