Papy’s Pieces 17.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top tier is comprised of two games. GB/MIN (48.5) and CAR/TB (48) both squeak into the upper echelon with totals above 48. They are the two best game environments, but neither one feels like a sure thing.
• The middle tier is smaller than it has been on recent slates with only one game. NYJ/BUF (46) has a moderate total with clear paths to over or under-performing the total.
• The bottom tier is robust and holds most of the slate with five games. IND/NYG (40.5), DAL/PHL (38), TEN/JAX (39.5), LV/NO (37.5), and MIA/CLE (37.5) all present less than exciting game environments. Remarkably, only Anthony Richardson (if he plays), and Tua Tagovailoa were their team’s starting QBs at the beginning of the season.

Pawn – TE Chig Okonkwo ($3,600)

Chig has finally been set free for the last two weeks! He has seen 11 & 10 targets from Mason Rudolph ($5,000) and turned those into 19 & 14 DK points. I say “set free” because Chig has long been one of the most athletic TEs in the league. He hasn’t produced as a fantasy player because he’s never been very involved in the passing game. I don’t know if his recent uptick in usage is the Titans coaching staff figuring out that he can be a weapon, or if Rudolph has a proclivity to check down to the TE. Either way, if Chig is going to see double digits targets (even 6-9 looks) he is a steal at his price. Add in that he gets the Jaguars pathetic (32^nd in DVOA) pass defense, and he starts to feel like an obvious play. I was expecting Chig to be the highest owned TE of the week, but early ownership projections have him as the fifth highest owned TE with a moderate 12% ownership. That’s more than fine on an eight-game slate and reinforces that I’m likely to use Chig on my Main Event build. He also makes for a nice mini correlation with Brian Thomas ($6,800) or a good stacking partner with Rudolph.

Knight – QB Joe Flacco ($4,900)