Papy’s Pieces 15.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This slate brings us two stand-out totals in Wash // LAR (50.5) and Dal // Buf (50). It feels like a while since we’ve had two totals north of 50 on a main slate, both with under a touchdown spread.
• The third most desirable total is SF // AZ (48). This game might go overlooked because of how it’s positioned on the slate. It’s also not expected to be competitive, with SF installed as large (12.5) favorites.
• TB // GB (42) is the only other game on the slate with a total north of 40. 
• Five of the six other games include at least one QB who was not the planned starter at the beginning of the season.
• The only game of the six with two preseason starters is Atl // Car (33) which has the lowest total of the group and will feature Desmond Ridder against Bryce Young.

Pawn – QB Davis Mills ($4,900)

This play is not for the faint of heart, but hear me out, “Play passing game pieces against the Titans!” I know, it can’t be that easy but sometimes it feels that easy. The Titans have been the league’s premier pass funnel for the past few seasons and this year is no different. Davis Mills isn’t a world-beater, but he has shown aggressive tendencies in the past and has enough talent that he can take advantage of weaker defenses. The Texans are going to be without Tank Dell, and as of this writing, probably Nico Collins as well. Being without your top two receivers doesn’t scream play the QB, but I don’t care, I’ll trust in the matchup to produce a solid box score for a player who is priced like a punt. A 20-point game at a cheap price is valuable, and it’s well within his range of outcomes. He could post a dud, but he also might drop a nice price considered score that opens salary for the rest of your roster at negligible ownership.

Knight – WR Jayden Reed ($4,900)

Christian Watson is going to miss another game with his string cheese hammy and that opens the door for Reed to continue seeing heavy usage.  A mini Deebo Samuel, Reed saw four carries last week to go along with 10 targets. He has at least two carries in three of his last four games, so being used on the ground looks like it’s going to be a part of his profile every week. Reed also has 10 // 5 // 8 // 6 targets in his past four games and is being used creatively all over the field. He’s getting more usage than on paper WR1 Romeo Doubs, which effectively makes him the Packers top option when Watson sits. Paying under $5,000 for a guy functioning as his team’s WR1 is always desirable, and when you factor in a handful of carries, Reed feels like a steal. I’ll be using him on my tighter builds as a one-off and possibly paired with Love.

Bishop – TE Trey McBride ($5,200)