Thursday, Dec 12th

Papy’s Pieces 14.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board
  • The top of the slate is small, with only one game expected to produce over 48 points. BUF/LAR (49.5) stands alone but there is a good chance the fantasy production is spread out.
  • The middle tier is robust and holds seven of the games. CAR/PHL (46), LV/TB (46), ATL/MIN (45.5), NYJ/MIA (44.5), SEA/AZ (44.5), CHI/SF (44), and CLE/PIT (43.5) all have the potential to produce points with the “must have” game of the week likely to come from this group.
  • The bottom tier is also small and holds only two games. NO/NYG (41), and JAX/TEN (40). Both are unappealing from a total point-scored perspective but also have interesting players for DFS.   
Pawn – QB Aidan O’Connell ($4,800)         

O’Connell is priced below $5,000 which puts him into the “punt” range at QB. That’s an interesting price for a guy coming off a game where he just posted 24 DK points against a tough KC defense in Arrowhead, which has long been one of the toughest places to play.  This week, O’Connell’s matchup improves dramatically against a Bucs team that has faced one of the highest opponent pass play rates of the year.  If O’Connell threw 35 times last week, how many passes will he attempt this week? I’d be surprised if he throws under 35 times, with it being likely that his pass attempts crack 40.  He’s also easy to play in DFS because he has two clear stacking partners in Brock Bowers ($6,500) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,600). Bowers looks every bit the generational talent he was supposed to be coming out of college and the Bucs have been poor at containing TEs. Meyers ($5,600) has seen 10 targets per game over his last five contests, and despite scoring over 16 DK points in four out of five of those games, has only seen his price increase $200 since Week 8. I’m not sure why Meyers hasn’t gotten more expensive, but I’ll be happy to play him this week at a discount. I’m going to use O’Connell on my tighter builds, paired with one or both of Meyers and Bowers.

Knight – RB Isaac Guerendo ($5,400)

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