Papy’s Pieces 13.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top of the slate has two expected high scoring games. PHL/BAL (51) will be the game of the week for many DFS players and LAR/NO (49.5) isn’t far behind. Both games are also expected to be competitive, with a field goal or less spread. 
• The middle tier holds most of the slate with seven games. Many of the middle-tier games are “upper” middle-tier. LAC/ATL (47.5), PIT/CIN (47), TB/CAR (46.5), AZ/MIN (45), TEN/WAS (44.5), HOU/JAZ (44), and IND/NE (42.5) make this an appealing middle group of games to consider.
• The bottom tier almost didn’t exist. SEA/NYJ (42) is the only lower-tier game, and if the total was any higher it would qualify for the bottom of the middle tier. This slate has zero games with a total below 42.

Pawn – WR David Moore ($3,500)

Jalen Coker has been ruled out which means it’s likely that the Panthers will deploy their WRs the same way they did last week. In that game, Moore played 94% of the snaps and saw 10 targets. He turned those targets into a 6/81/1 line and gave the Panthers every reason to keep using him. The Bucs are below average (21^st in DVOA) against the pass and the Panthers seem to have taken a “screw it” approach with Bryce Young since he returned from a mid-season benching. The coaching staff started the year trying to hide Young. That changed when he came off the bench. Young has been allowed to throw over 35 times in two of the Panthers last four games. The Bucs are probably going to score against the Panthers (everyone does) and that will force the Panthers to respond with aggression. Expect another 35 plus passing attempts from Young, with a target expectation of 7-9 for Moore. I’m going to use Moore throughout my rosters as a classic salary-saving one-off player who has a heightened role because of injury.

Knight – QB Anthony Richardson ($5,500)