Thursday, Dec 12th

Papy’s Pieces 12.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board
  • This slate has a single stand-out game in the top tier. DET/IND (50) is the only total that cracks the 48-point threshold.
  • The middle tier holds most of the slate with five games. AZ/SEA (47.5), NE/MIA (46), DAL/WASH (45), SF/GB (44.5), and KC/CAR (43) all have paths to becoming high or low-scoring affairs.
  • The bottom tier has four games and rounds out what is a less-than-exciting slate from an expected points scored perspective. DEN/LV (41), TB/NYG (41), TEN/HOU (40.5), and MIN/CHI (39.5) are all predicted to be low-scoring contests.
Pawn – TE Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500)  

Jake Ferguson has been ruled out which opens Schoonmaker as a value play. Schoonmaker saw 10 targets last week on 53% of the snaps with Ferguson leaving early. The 53% snap rate isn’t ideal, but that could tick up with a week of preparation as the starter. Even if his snap rate stays the same, it is clear that he will be involved in the passing game. Cooper Rush ($5,000) spread 15 targets between his top two TEs, and while that came in a 55-pass attempt game, it still shows that he is the type of QB who leans into his TEs. Washington has been middling (16th in DVOA) against TEs, but the matchup means less than the price. Schoonmaker is min-priced, which opens a lot of options on the rest of your roster. It’s tough to ignore someone for the minimum salary who has a realistic 5-8 target projection, with the possibility for more in the right game script. I’m going to take the free square on Schoonmaker.

Knight – RB Kareem Hunt ($5,700)

Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out another week and that leaves the KC backfield in the hands of Hunt. Hunt has been used as a modern-day workhorse since fully taking over the Chiefs backfield in Week 5. He plays 60-65% of the snaps and gets the bulk of the RB opportunities. From Week 5 through Week 10, Hunt saw 28 // 24 // 22 // 28 // 24 opportunities before only seeing 14 last week in a game where the offense generally struggled in a tough matchup. This week Hunt gets the Panthers defense which has been run over all season. The Chiefs are two score favorites and it’s highly probable that we see a game script where Hunt gets 20-25 opportunities, with a chance for more if Andy Reid decides to ride the ground game to an easy victory. I’m going to use Hunt across all my builds, as a clearly mispriced player in an excellent matchup. 

Bishop – WR Calvin Ridley ($5,700)

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