Papy’s Pieces 11.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week has a small top tier of only two games. BAL/PIT (48.5) and SEA/SF (48) have upper-echelon totals but both are division games with paths to the downside.
• The middle tier is robust with seven games. JAX/DET (47), KC/BUF (46), ATL/DEN (44.5), CLE/NO (44), LV/MIA (44), LAR/NE (43.5), and IND/NYJ (43.5). All seven have strong game environments in their range out of outcomes, but none of them are especially likely to explode.
• The bottom tier is small with only two games. GB/CHI (40.5) and MIN/TEN (39.5) round out the slate with two games that aren’t likely to produce a lot of points but can still offer interesting one-off opportunities.

Pawn – Steelers defense ($2,500)

It’s rare for Papy’s Pieces to include a defense and several positional salary savers were considered for this spot. Dawson Knox ($3,500), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,400), Audric Estime ($4,500), and Davis Allen ($2,500) were a few of the other candidates if looking for cheap positional player. Those guys are good options but the Steelers Defense is priced in a disrespectful manner. Yes, the Ravens offense has been the best in the league, but they’ve also put up a lot of that production against weak defenses. This won’t be the Bengals out there. The Steelers defense has the best pass rush in the league, they’ve given up the second fewest points and missed the second least tackles. They are loaded top to bottom with talent. This is a division rivalry game, at home, that will (along with their game in Baltimore) likely determine the outcome of the division. The Steelers defense has averaged 9.8 DK points per game which is the second highest on the slate behind the Vikings, and yet they’re priced like a punt. The Ravens offense has been good, but the Steelers defense has been just as good, and if you’re looking to save salary at negligible ownership, the Steelers are your defense.

Knight – WR Cedric Tillman ($5,300)

Why is Cedric Tillman so cheap? Since Jameis Winston took over he’s seen 12 // 9 // 11 targets. He’s turned those into DK scores of 18 // 29 // 19. He saw a $1,000 price bump this week but it still wasn’t enough. Tillman’s production over the last three weeks is reflective of a WR who should be priced $1,000 to $1,500 higher, and if he keeps playing this way, it won’t be long before his price reaches those levels. He has a good matchup against a NO team that looks like it has given up and just traded away its best player in the secondary. You can make a similar case for Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) and Elijah Moore ($4,300) but Tillman has the most upside of the group because he’s being treated as alpha WR by Winston. It’s tough to find reasons to fade Tillman after the past three weeks, and I’ll probably use at least one of the Browns WRs in a large majority of my lineups. They’re all unpriced, all have upside, and are all stackable with Winston. I’m going to have the Browns passing game pieces throughout my tighter builds this week.

Bishop – WR DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700)