Papy’s Pieces 10.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This Week offers us four respectable totals: Det // LAC (48.5), Cin // Hou (47), SF // Jax (45), and Was // Sea (44.5).
• Of the four desirable game environments, Det // LAC, Cin // Hou, and Was // Sea stand out as the best games to build around.
• NYG // Dal has a three-score spread (-17) which might end up making Dallas the largest favorite of the season.
• The strong and weak game environments have a big gap on this slate making it a good week to favor game full game stacks.
• Early ownership projections are predicting chalk to form at TE and RB.
• There are several injuries across the slate that should open volume for mispriced players.

Pawn –  RB Devin Singletary ($4,700)

Singletary was chalk last week and burned a large portion of the field when he predictably slammed into the solid front of the pass funnel Buccaneers. Despite his lack of success, Singletary played 75% of the snaps and saw 13 out of 15 RB carries. He also received three targets. No other RB had any targets. Singletary dominated the backfield work in a way we rarely see in today’s NFL, but he did it in one of the worst matchups for RBs. He is priced like a backup and should see as high a snap share as the elite RBs on the slate.  This time, he has a good matchup against a Bengals team that is weaker against the run than the pass, in a game environment that is expected to produce points. He probably won’t win you the week, but he has a great chance to deliver a strong price-considered score. I’ll be using Singletary on my tighter builds to open the salary for slate winners.

Knight – TE Sam Laporta ($5,700)

Laporta has bucked the trend of rookie TEs needing a year to adjust to the NFL. He’s in the top five for TEs in targets, catches, yards, and TDs. The Chargers have given up the fourth most receptions and the third most yards to TEs this year. The game environment is expected to be high scoring. If you rely on props too heavily for DFS, you’ll learn the meaning of the saying, “The props lied, my bankroll died,” but they are worth considering for “stand out” props. Laporta’s receiving yards / receiving props stand out for a TE this week. There isn’t an objective reason not to like Laporta in this spot other than salary allocation. I get wanting to punt TE and I’ll have lineups where I don’t pay up for him, but on my rosters that use salary at TE, it’ll be spent on Laporta.

Bishop – QB Sam Howell ($5,900)