One Week Stats 5.25

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

• Bryce Young has struggled this season, ranking 26th in accuracy percentage and 32nd in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A) at 4.42. It has not been pretty, but he has one “GPP-worthy” performance already this season (26.3 FP in AZ). Now he gets his best matchup of the season against MIA, who has allowed a 114.1 passer rating and ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed. They are also second in FP allowed to QBs (behind Dallas) and will again be without two starting CBs. In addition, MIA has been gashed on the ground by QBs, lifting Young’s potential ceiling while at his lowest price of the season ($4.7K on DK/$6.6K on FD). MIA has allowed four rushing TDs to QBs in four games, with only Josh Allen (somehow) missing out on the fun. In addition, Chuba Hubbard is likely out, which should push CAR toward a higher neutral pass rate, while also lowering their league-leading red zone rush rate. 
• Despite missing CeeDee Lamb for the past two games and running into bad luck in week one, Dak Prescott enters Week 5 averaging 20 FP/g, one of just five QBs sporting a 20+ FP/g average heading into Week 5. Two QB1 performances at home have fueled it, a split we have seen a lot from him over the past few seasons. Over his last 30 games, Dak is averaging 23 FP/g at home and just 15 FP/g on the road. In addition to missing Lamb again, he will also be without WR KaVontae Turpin, but that is the theme with this slate: just about every team has serious injury issues heading into Sunday. 
• The matchup is decent, NYJ has allowed 7 TD passes on the 6th fewest pass attempts. What keeps Dak in play, even with all the injury issues, is his poor defense. He is 1st in pass attempts per game, averaging 280 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes, thanks to DAL allowing 33 points per game. 
• WASH has been quietly bad against the pass this season, whether due to injury or not. They have allowed the 8th-most FP/g to QBs and just turned Michael Penix into a viable DFS option last week, giving up a 111.6 passer rating over their last three games. This week, they face Justin Herbert in a bounce-back spot. Herbert did not look sharp in New York, completing less than 56% of his passes after hitting only 59% against Denver in Week 3. That came on the heels of a red-hot start to the season, where he averaged 300+ yards and 2 passing TDs per game on a 72% completion rate. Coverage has been a big problem for WASH. They have played the 9th-highest rate of man-coverage  (5th-highest YPA allowed). Last week, Penix posted a 154 passer rating with 2 TD passes against them when they were in man (56% of dropbacks). When in zone (49%), they are still getting burned, allowing 8.0 YPA (28th) and a 116 passer rating over their last three games. In addition, WAS will have Jayden Daniels back at QB, which (I hope) will keep LAC aggressive for four quarters (LAC already ranks first in neutral pass rate). 

• Kyler Murray is not playing well (28th in Fantasy Points Per Dropback), despite having the 5th-lowest pressure rate of any QB. With him averaging 3.7 FP/g via rushing production, his 16.4 FP/g average (DK) and 4.5 ANY/A (35th) look even worse. TEN has allowed the 7th fewest FP/g to QBs as teams have not needed to be aggressive against them this season. With AZ 6th in points allowed, I can’t see TEN pushing Murray enough to make him a viable GPP option (TEN averaging just 12.8 points per game/32nd).
• Again, this slate is fairly gross, so enter Sam Darnold in a pass-funnel matchup with TB (1st in rush DVOA per FTN Data). TB is allowing just 3.4 YPC this season after holding PHI to 2.8 YPC last week. We have read this script before, with TB allowing 72% of their yards against via the pass last season. This year, they are 9th in FP allowed to QBs despite facing Tyrod Taylor, CJ Stroud, and Michael Penix. In addition, SEA has been solid against the run, pushing their opponents into a higher pass rate (6th overall) and leading to 70% of yards gained against the Seahawks coming through the air. Darnold has been good on a Fantasy Points Per-Dropback basis, ranking 4th among QBs who have started and played all four games. SEA just hasn’t asked him to do much with their defense keeping them in games. 
• The hope is that Baker Mayfield can score enough to force SEA out of their conservative ways and put Darnold in a spot where he can get more volume to go along with his efficiency (7th in accuracy rate).

RB

• Among RBs with 40+ carries, Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery rank 1st (Monty) and 3rd (Gibbs) in fantasy points per rush attempt. They “run” into arguably the best matchup on the slate with CIN looking totally overmatched in their past two games without Joe Burrow. CIN has allowed 5.27 yards per carry on 30 carries per game (4th most), leading to 35 FP/g for RBs (2nd most, last three weeks). They have allowed 193 total yards to backs after another 250 last week to DEN, where both Dobbins and Harvey cleared 14.5 FP. 
• Gibbs has seen an increase in usage this year, which has me salivating to play him in this matchup. He averaged 16.1 touches per game last year with Monty on the field and 19.8 this season (averaging 1 FP per opportunity, down from 1.13 in 2024), giving him the highest floor/ceiling combo of any player on the slate. 
• On teams without Gibbs, I will have a good amount of Montgomery exposure. While I love stats and data, you can’t just ignore #NarrativeStreet. Monty will be playing in CIN for the first time in his career. “I think it’s just going to be a rush of emotions. I have never played in Cincinnati since leaving Cincinnati, which will be cool. Playing against the team that, when I grew up, that was the team, was like my team. That was a hometown kid. A bunch of my family members are coming.” 
• In addition, he will be playing in front of his paralyzed sister, which makes this about as strong a narrative angle as I can recall. 
• The Ravens are limping into Week 5. Nnamdi Madubuike, Ar’Darius Washington, and Broderick Washington Jr. are on IR. Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Chidobe Awuzie, and Kyle Hamilton are all going to be out this week. All of this sets up Woody Marks for another big game after posting 21 touches for 119 total yards and 2 TDs last week vs. TEN. He is averaging 1.11 Fantasy Points per Touch, which puts him in elite company. For context, Bijan Robinson averages 1.08 FP/touch, though on a significantly higher volume. With Lamar Jackson out and the HOU defense playing at a very high level, this should set up Marks and Nick Chubb as a poor man’s version of Monty and Gibbs vs. CIN. HOU ran the ball 35 times last week against TEN, and with their pass-blocking struggles, that should again be the game plan here. The injuries have also led to the Ravens allowing the most FP/g to RBs this season (4.9 yards per carry to RBs), a stark contrast after giving up the 4th-fewest FP to RBs in 2024 (3.5 RB yards per carry, 1st). They have also allowed the most RZ scoring opportunities per game (5). 
• In addition to the numbers trending in the right direction for Marks, there is a lot of positive vibes/news coming out of HOU regarding Marks. 
• Tony Pollard has been in a brutal situation so far this season. With his team struggling to score (0.22 Points per Play, 31st), his target share has plummeted. TEN targeted their RBs at a top-10 rate last season (19%, 5.5 targets per game), but that number has fallen to just 9% (2.5 targets per game). With his team dead last in yards per play, Pollard is left being a TD-dependent back on a team that doesn’t score many TDs (31st in RZ trips per game). 
• Cam Skattebo got a massive workload in his first full game with Tyrone Tracy OUT (27 touches + a 2-point conversion). He was not good from an efficiency basis (32% Rushing  Success Rate), but he gets a much better matchup this week. He did not get the receiving work we saw with Russell Wilson, but with Malik Nabers OUT, I assume they will scheme up a few plays for Skattebo to get him more involved as a pass catcher. NO allows 25 FP/g to backs (5 TDs in four games) after James Cook posted 135 total yards and a TD. 

WR

• Jameson Williams had 175 unrealized air yards last week against CLE, the 6th-most in a game this season, and nearly three times as many as the entire CIN team had in Week 4. He and Goff have missed on several big plays this year, with only 60% of his targets deemed catchable. This sets up as a prime “buy low” opportunity in GPPs at his 3–5% projected ownership.
• Chris Godwin Jr. practiced in full this week after returning to play 81% of offensive snaps (88% route participation). He recorded 120 unrealized air yards on 10 targets. With Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Bucky Irving out, Godwin (37% slot rate) should be in line for another 10+ targets at sub-10% ownership. SEA plays zone coverage on 67% of defensive snaps, which sets up well for both Baker Mayfield and Godwin. Baker has a 44% completion rate against man (65 passer rating) compared to a 68% completion rate and 113.8 passer rating against zone.
• Michael Pittman Jr. was third last week with 117 unrealized air yards. He pulled in just 50% of his targets from Danny Dimes, a sharp drop from his 84% catch rate heading into Week 4. Alec Pierce remains out in this plus matchup with LV, who allow the 4th-most receptions and FP to WRs. Pittman is mispriced for his usage (1st in team target share, 1st in first-read target share) and production (TDs in 3 of 4).
• Darius Slayton played in two games last season without Malik Nabers, averaging 7–89.5–0.5 (18.9 FP/g). It’s a short sample with a different QB, but at $4.3k, that’s enough for me on this slate. He’ll see a lot of CBs Quincy Riley and Kool-Aid McKinstry, who have allowed 2.1 and 2.5 Fantasy Points per Target Defended in Coverage, respectively.
• Troy Franklin has an 87% route participation rate over his last three games, just 2% behind team-leader Courtland Sutton. He’s also second on DEN in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating), averaging 6.75 targets per game. With Marvin Mims banged up, Franklin should again see significant slot usage (59% slot rate). At $4k, and low projected ownership, he’ll be firmly in the GPP player pool.

TE

• Jake Ferguson has hauled in 29 of 33 targets across three games with CeeDee Lamb out. That production makes him the TE1 over that span and for the season (18% first-read target share). He has also operated as the Cowboys slot WR on 44% of his routes in the last three games, a number that should climb with Turpin out (66% slot rate). Despite this usage and sub-$5K price tag, Ferguson is projected as only the 3rd-most owned TE on the slate when he should be the highest. That has me jamming him into most of my lineups. NYJ has allowed a 73% completion rate to TEs, giving up 13 FP/g and two TDs to Darren Waller last week.

• Tommy Tremble ran 34% of his routes from the slot last week with all the injuries to CAR WRs and TEs. He should be heavily involved again after posting a 22% target share (tied with Tetairoa McMillan for the team lead) in an even better matchup against MIA, who have allowed the most receiving yards and the 4th-most FP/g to TEs. At $2.9k on DK, he is my favorite punt TE on the slate.