Significant changes have occurred in New England since the end of the 2023 season. Legendary head coach Bill Belichick is heading to the ManningCast, and their starting quarterback, Mac Jones, was traded to the Jaguars to serve as Trevor Lawrence’s backup. New head coach Jerod Mayo will have former Browns OC Alex Van Pelt calling plays in 2024 for a very different-looking Patriots offense.
The Pats used their first-round draft pick, number three overall, to select the North Carolina QB. Rookie QBs are always extremely difficult to predict, but Maye will not exactly be surrounded by playmakers in NE. He does give you dual-threat potential, as he was second only to Jayden Daniels in rushing production per game among the big-six QBs, but he is still, at best, an end-of-draft spec pick if you are in a dynasty league. Maye should be starting at some point this season, but it is possible he could take a backseat to veteran QB Jacoby Brissett if he does not seem to be ready.
Stevenson will be the team’s RB1 but will split his touches with Antonio Gibson, who was signed as a free agent after spending four seasons with the Commanders. New OC Alex Van Pelt used multiple RBs during his time with the Browns, managing to produce an eighth-place finish for his backfield in expected PPR points per game. That trend should continue in NE. Expect Stevenson to get in the vicinity of 225 touches this season. A bad Patriots offense will hold him back, making him a low-end RB2.
As previously mentioned, Gibson should be splitting carries with Stevenson, but the majority of touches will go Stevenson’s way. Gibson is the better passing-game option, so expect him to get more usage on third downs. He should finish the season with approximately 125-150 touches, making him an RB3/flex player with the potential to be a low-end RB2 should anything happen to Stevenson.
The Pats selected the Washington WR with the overall 37th pick in the 2024 NFL draft. He was Michael Penix Jr.’s top target, hauling in 69 passes for 1,159 yards. Polk has very good hands and is tough while working in the middle of the field. He has decent size, but average speed. Since he is on a team devoid of talent at the WR position, he could emerge as the WR1, albeit in a very low-end passing attack. He is one of the better late-round picks with upside to fill out your bench, particularly in dynasty leagues.
This is not exactly an offense where you want to be drafting from to win your fantasy league. There is a new HC, a new OC, a rookie QB, and mostly a bunch of lower-end talent all around. It will be quite challenging for new OC Alex Van Pelt to get this offense to gel, particularly when and if the rookie Maye takes over. Stevenson is the most reliable of the group to produce numbers, with mostly speculative/bench depth type of players otherwise in the mix. Maye and Polk should be on your radar if you are looking for late-round picks in dynasty leagues.
